Matt Josephs Matt Josephs
21-10-1 now in the NFL after a 5-1 week 6. Week 7's card is up.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
+5 -106 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

I can't believe I'm going back to ODU after they've disappointed me so much this season. The Monarchs only win came against Virginia Tech with the rest of the games being pretty awful. It's because of a porous defense and an offense that is really inconsistent. You could use those same terms on Western Kentucky who is 1-5 with their only win coming against Ball State. This team can't run it well and has had six turnovers in their last two games as the quarterbacks have been bad. You can run on WKU and some teams have passed on them as well. I know it's a road game, but I'll take one last shot with the Monarchs in this one.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Charlotte vs Middle Tennessee State
Charlotte
+17 -109 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

This one relies heavily on Brent Stockstill not playing for the Blue Raiders. He is the guy who stirs the drink in Murfreesboro. They lost at FIU last week 24-21 as the offense just failed to move the ball. MTSU's defense is alright, but you can run on them. Charlotte isn't great, but they are coming off a convincing 40-14 home win over Western Kentucky. This team has wins over Fordham and ODU and it's because of a really good run game and a rush defense that clamps down on it's opponents. The 49ers actually have a decent defense which will surprise some folks considering their record. MTSU has covered just 14 of their last 32 games. I think they struggle to win this one without Stockstill.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Georgia Southern vs New Mexico State
OVER 54½ -109 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

New Mexico State allowed almost 800 yards of offense last week against ULL in a 66-38 loss. They have been gashed by the run which means that Georgia Southern should run wild after struggling against Texas State. The Aggies offense has held it's own as of late and should be able to contribute to this total. They've gone over in five of their last six. Georgia Southern has scored 30 points or more and has a huge home game against App State ahead of them. I think they give up some points along the way and we get a mini shootout in this one. GSU won't be focused and could struggle early. I think this one is an over. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
UL-Lafayette vs Appalachian State
UL-Lafayette
+25½ -106 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

I'm going to play a spot here in this one as Appalachian State comes off an emotional 35-9 win at Arkansas State and is staring at a rivalry game at Georgia Southern five days later. App State lost running back Jalin Moore last time out to an injury for the rest of the season so they'll have to find some other backs to take over. ASU has not played too many great offenses this season so their defensive stats look really good. Lafayette has won two straight scoring 108 points on Texas State and New Mexico State. Their defense isn't very good so I'm a bit worried about that, but I think they could keep up somewhat in a shootout. App State has covered just one of their last six as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. I think the road team is worth a look here.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Rice vs Florida International
Florida International
-23½ -104 at pinnacle
Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Premium

FIU is 4-2 on the season and should pick up another win on Saturday. The Golden Panthers have beaten up really bad teams at home taking UMass by 39 and UAPB by 46. Both of those teams might be comparable to Rice right now who is bringing in a backup quarterback for this one. The Owls have road losses of 14 at Hawaii, 18 at Southern Miss and 32 at Wake Forest. They've scored just three points in two home games against UTSA and UAB. Rice's defense is pretty bad and should struggle with the balance that the Owls bring. FIU has covered 15 of their last 25 Saturday's including five of six this season. I think this one is a rout in Florida.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Akron vs Kent State
Kent State
+5½ -110 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

This is going to look dumb when they get blown out, but I'm going to take a shot with the home team here. KSU has won just once beating Howard at home 54-14 with their other home contest being a 1 point loss to Ohio as a 11.5 point underdog. Kent State has a decent quarterback in Woody Barrett who just has to learn how to cut down on the turnovers. This offense has shown flashes at times this season. Akron went 2-0, but then lost three straight as their offense went dry. The Zips scored 36 points in losses to Iowa State, Miami-Ohio and Buffalo. This is their fourth road game over their last five so I've got to believe there could be some road weariness. It's not like their defense is all that good either. These two teams stink, but I'll lean to the home team.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Central Florida vs East Carolina
OVER 64 -115 Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

UCF needed quite a lot to pick up a comeback victory over Memphis last week. They won 31-30 over the Tigers in a game that saw them struggle on defense yet make the plays needed to win the game late. That was the lowest point total of the season for UCF and I expect that to change in this one because ECU is one of the worst defenses in college football. They allowed 42 to Houston and 49 to Temple the last two weeks. ECU's offense is nothing special, but outside of two road games, they've been competent at home. I think we get a semi-unfocused effort from the road team who will probably expect to coast in this one. I think it becomes a bit of a shootout and UCF wins this thing by 3 or 4 scores late.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Cincinnati vs Temple
Temple
-3 -120 at YouWager
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Cincinnati is one of the few teams left that are undefeated in college football. The problem is that they've really beaten almost no one of substance. The road trip to UCLA was impressive at the time, but we've realized the Bruins aren't very good. They then beat Miami-Ohio, Alabama A&M, Ohio, UConn and Tulane. The offense wants to run the ball and have Desmond Kidder manage everything else. Defensively they put up good numbers, but once again how good have they been. On the other side you have Temple who has won four of their last five and is doing so with their trademark defense and solid passing from Anthony Russo. Ventell Bryant is very good outside and Ryquell Armstead figures to be healthy for this one. I think Temple's balance will vex the Bearcats and the Owls defense will keep this game close. They've held five straight opponents to less then 200 yards passing. Temple has dominated this series a bit as of late. I think they get the win on Saturday.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Bills vs Colts
Bills
+9 -130 at 5Dimes
Lost
$130.0
Play Type: Premium

I think the Bills defense is one of the most underrated units in football and the Colts have a tremendous amount of injuries on offense. Derek Anderson starting for Buffalo will motivate them a lot more then Nathan Peterman. I just think this is a rather large number and Indy will struggle to cover it. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Rams vs 49ers
49ers
+10½ -130 at 5Dimes
Lost
$130.0
Play Type: Premium

Upon first glance, this seems to be an easy win for the road team who has put up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. The 49ers have lost four straight and are starting CJ Beathard under center. If you look closer though, there are some scenarios that say the home team is a live dog. This is the Rams third straight road game after two really close wins over Seattle and Denver. They have a stretch of games coming up against Green Bay and New Orleans which are bigger tests in the scope of NFC play. LA's defense can be beaten as evidenced by the solid rushing performance by the Seahawks while three others have put up at least 295 yards passing. Kyle Shanahan's bunch went toe-to-toe with the Packers last week and have actually played several teams close this season. They lost by eight at Minnesota, by two at the Chargers and by three at Green Bay. The defensive numbers aren't the best, but they've done well against the run and have had some success against quarterbacks that aren't Aaron Rodgers. Last year LA won by two in San Francisco and lost by 21 at home to the Niners. The Rams have covered just 16 of their last 39 games. I could look really dumb when LA wins this one easily, but I think they struggle with focus and pull out a close one.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Cowboys vs Redskins
Redskins
PK -125 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Last week we had the Cowboys and they came through with flying colors. They were able to run it well enough that Dak Prescott could use the playaction game. This doesn't mean that all of a sudden Dallas is fixed and that the anemic offense is going to work. I'm actually more scared of the Cowboys defense then their O and they may get Sean Lee back on Sunday. The Redskins are coming off a 23-17 win against Carolina in which Adrian Peterson ran hard and the defense made the stops when they needed to. Injuries are still a concern with this team, but AP ran hard with a separated shoulder. I still think Washington's offense could be so much better if Alex Smith gets on the same page with his weapons. Dallas swept the Skins last year in two easy victories. This is a feel play for me as I think the Redskins can slow down Ezekiel Elliott and can get just enough points on a Dallas team who is 0-3 on the road.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Texans vs Jaguars
Texans
+5 -115 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Jacksonville was undressed by the Cowboys last week and have now lost two straight and three of their last four. The defense has given up 70 points the last two weeks at Kansas City while the offense has pitifully scored just 21. Blake Bortles has had some issues while the run game struggled without Leonard Fournette. This team has not played well this season outside of a couple of early games. Houston has won three straight since opening up the year with three losses. Deshaun Watson has played well for the most part outside of last week's headscratching performance. The defense is playing a lot better as of late and this team will be looking for revenge after two asskickings at the hands of the Jags last year. Jacksonville has covered just seven of their last 18 games at home. Give me the live road dog in this one.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Titans vs Chargers
UNDER 45½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The London game has seen several unders in it's past including the one last week that saw Seattle win 27-3 over the Raiders. Last year four of the losing teams in the overseas games scored single digit points. The Titans offense has struggled terribly as of late without a solid run game and a terrible offensive line. The good thing is that the defense has been good. I think they can matchup up alright with the Chargers offense. Tennessee has gone under in four of their five games against conference opponents. LA has gone under in 15 of their last 28 conference contests. I think this one is an under as well.

SERVICE BIO

My name is Matt. I've been handicapping sports for many years and I'm not going to dazzle you with numbers and percentages. Just know that when you buy my picks, you get someone who looks at all the angles and does the work to get you winners. When it comes to the college sports, I specialize on the mid-major/non power five games.