Matt Josephs Matt Josephs
47-34 in college basketball since the start of 2020. One play up for Sunday already.
NCAA-B Total on Butler v. Creighton

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 23, 2020
Green Bay vs. Oakland
Green Bay
+3 -101
  at  PINNACLE
in 13h

I don't quite get this line, but the better team is getting points in this one. Green Bay has won four of their last five and has seven road wins already this season with some solid efforts in other losing contests. They play with a ridiculously quick pace and have the shortest offensive possession times in the country. The first meeting with Oakland was a tight one that the Phoenix won at home 73-69 in a 75 possession game. Now the Grizzlies have won three in a row, but they've also lost five home games as well. Their offense isn't very good although it's in good form right now. I just like the underdog here despite the odd line. They have a shot to win outright. 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
Hampton vs Winthrop
OVER 160 -108 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Pace will not be an issue on Saturday afternoon as Winthrop hosts Hampton. These two played over a month ago in Virginia with the Pirates losing 116-95 in an 84 possession game. Hampton's road performances have not been great offensively and certainly not defensively. This team has gone over or flirted with the over in most of their games as the possession numbers continue to fly up. Winthrop has scored 85 or more eight times already at home. Their defense isn't that great either and the only thing that worries me about this is the early start time. To me, we'll see 80+ possessions once again and lots of points in an early over.

** Also play Over 76.5 1st half **

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
Gonzaga vs BYU
OVER 158 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

This bet didn't hit last time out because of a lackluster half by the Zags. I don't think we see that here as we get a BYU team that also wants to run and will do so at home. The Cougars are the 13th best two point shooting team and the best three point shooting squad. In meeting one in Spokane it was a 92-69 win for the Zags in a 74 possession game. The halftime score was 38-31 between the two squads which wouldn't be enough here, but I think we get more on the road. At home in WCC play, BYU has put up 63, 96, 93, 107, 81, 90 and 85. Gonzaga on the road in WCC play has scored 85, 94, 87, 87, 83, 90 and 89. These two should have some free-flowing offense with plenty of possessions. Give me the over in this one. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
East Tennessee State vs Samford
OVER 147½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Samford is one of the worst defenses in the country as they host ETSU on Saturday. The Bulldogs have allowed 80 or more nine times already in conference including giving up 88 to East Tennessee State just over a month ago. They are 333rd against the two and 326th against the three point shot. The question will be how much their offense can put up and I think they'll be able to get something going against a Bucs team that might be slightly hungover after a huge win over Furman at home. ETSU is ninth in 2pt% shooting 55.6% and is allowing opponents to shoot over 50% as well. On the road they've scored 85 at Western Carolina and 80 at Chattanooga. I just think we potentially get a less than focused effort early from the big favorite.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
Tennessee vs Auburn
OVER 132 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Auburn is back home after two rough efforts at Missouri and Georgia. The Tigers are a completely different team at home where they've scored 83, 82, 80, 80, 75, 91 and 95 points in SEC play. They are really efficient checking in 31st in two point baskets. Auburn can play good defense, but they've struggled without Okoro in the lineup. Tennessee's offense is not very good, but their defense is pretty stellar. They are 9th in 2 pt defense and 3rd in block percentage. Ideally they don't want to run, but they played a 72 possession game at Alabama. The Vols gave up 80 at Georgia, 86 at Mississippi State and 74 at Kansas. The worry here is that they ugly the game up and it's played in the 60s. Still, it feels like Auburn is due a breakout effort and it could come on Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
North Dakota State vs North Dakota
OVER 144 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

North Dakota State has won seven straight entering this one against their rival North Dakota. The Bison play with a slow pace, but they don't turn it over and are pretty efficient on offense. This team beat UND 83-74 at home back on 1/19 in a 66 possession game. Both teams shot the ball really well in that one and missed just five total free throws which helped contribute to the total. The Bison's road games in this conference have had scores of 77-74, 86-78, 71-60, 70-49, 78-73, 79-73 and 66-55. As you can see, it's a mixed bag as to whether or not the defense shows up. The Fighting Hawks are allowing opponents to have the 3rd shortest possession time on offense. They are 333rd in three point defense and 222nd in two point defense. The offense hasn't been that terrible, but their defense has allowed 94, 82, 68, 77, 71, 66 and 69 at home. I just think this conference is very conducive to overs so let's take it here. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
Clemson vs Boston College
Boston College
+4 -105 at betonline
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Boston College is not a bad team at home this season. They have wins over Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech and NC State there with an eight point loss to Duke as well. The Eagles have dealt with a ton of injuries and hopefully will have Derryck Thornton who was out for the last game due to back spasms he had in shoot-around. There are some decent options behind him, but this team plays some decent defense. Clemson is 13-12 with road wins at UNC and Pittsburgh. They are coming off an impressive win at home over Louisville who was scuffling at the time. Clemson doesn't shoot the three well at all. Their offense has scored 54 at NC State, 62 at Louisville and 44 at both Virginia and Wake Forest. I think they are giving the Tigers too much credit and the home team is a live dog.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
Hofstra vs Delaware
Delaware
+1½ -115 at betonline
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

Vegas continues to provide great prices to back the Blue Hens at. Since starting 2-4 in the CAA, they've lost just once and are now sitting at 10-5. One of those wins was 73-71 at Hofstra back on 1/23. It was a nip and tuck affair that saw Delaware shoot 60% from two, but only 3-20 from long range. They out-rebounded Hofstra in that one and held them to well below their season average shooting. Offensively UD is 12th in 2pt% and 57th in 3pt%. The only thing they don't really do well is force turnovers. They've lost just twice at home this season and have won a lot of their games there by a healthy margin. Hofstra is another efficient offense, but their defense is nowhere near as strong. They've also lost four times on the road. The Pride have won seven straight with four of those coming at home. Right now I have to keep backing the Blue Hens especially at home. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 22, 2020
William & Mary vs James Madison
William & Mary
-1½ -130 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Tribe have won three straight and are coming off the rare shutdown defensive effort in holding Towson to 51 points in a 61-51 win. William and Mary's offense has been the story and JMU just doesn't have anyone to match up with Nathan Knight. The nation's leading double-double guy had 19 points and 11 rebounds against the Dukes in a 88-75 win in Williamsburg. Andy Van Vliet had a big game in that one as well. Meanwhile, JMU is 2-13 in CAA play and has lost all but one of their home games there. The Dukes play at a quick pace, but don't score the ball well at all and at times get lost defensively. At this number, I'd consider the spread, but any higher and I'm looking at the moneyline. 

SERVICE BIO

My name is Matt. I've been handicapping sports for many years and I'm not going to dazzle you with numbers and percentages. Just know that when you buy my picks, you get someone who looks at all the angles and does the work to get you winners. When it comes to the college sports, I specialize on the mid-major/non power five games.