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ASA's 10* NCAA ROUND OF 32 GAME OF THE YEAR - #1 Play!

We're HAMMERING one game on Saturday that hits all of the standards for a GAME OF THE YEAR spot!  This number is off according to our power ratings and we're taking advantage of it.  Our CBB Top Sides are on a 76-58 run and this is simply our BEST PLAY in the round of 32!  

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Mar 21, 2019
Blue Jackets vs Oilers
OVER 6 -120 Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

ASA 9* PLAY ON OVER: Columbus at Edmonton, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET

Blue Jackets are off a 4-2 loss at Calgary Tuesday. Columbus is 46-30 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. Also, the Blue Jackets are 13-8-1 to the over when they are off a loss by a multiple goal margin. The Oilers enter this game off a 7-2 loss at St Louis. Edmonton has now allowed 6 or more goals in 3 of its last 4 games! The Oilers are 22-13 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jackets are seeking revenge for a 4-0 home loss to Edmonton earlier this season. Getting shutout in that match-up was certainly unusual for Columbus as the two meetings last season each totaled at least 9 goals! We expect a similar result tonight based on our computer math model. Bet OVER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 21, 2019
Pistons vs Suns
UNDER 218 -109 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA play on: #589/590 UNDER 218 Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM  - During the regular season the Pistons are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA but in their last five games they are actually THE slowest paced at just 93.9 possessions per game. On the year the Pistons have the 11th best defensive efficiency rating while Phoenix is 29th or second to last. But the Suns have been much better defensively in their past five games allowing just 1.113 points per possession which is 15th best in the league. Detroit has really struggled to shoot the basketball of late as they are averaging below 40% their previous five games. In eight of their last ten games the Pistons have allowed 108 or less points to opponents. The Suns have allowed 111 or less in 5 of their last nine. The Pistons just allowed 126 points to the Cavs so their will be a concentrated effort to be much better on that end of the court. In fact, when the Pistons have allowed 125 or more points in a game, in their next contest the Under is 6-1. Phoenix has also played Under in 5 straight home games. The bet here is UNDER the total.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Florida vs Nevada
Florida
+2½ -109 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida +2.5 over Nevada, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET

This is a battle of opposite styles as Nevada wants to play fast (#88 in adjusted tempo) and Florida wants a slow, half court game (#346 in adjusted tempo).  This total sits at 132.5 so that tells us the Gators will get the tempo they want which we agree.  A lot easier to slow a fast team down than speed up a slow team.  The Gators were underwhelming this season playing to just a 9-9 SEC mark and 19-15 overall.  They are better than their record and that tells you why a team that is 27-4 (Nevada) is favored by just 2 points over a team that is 19-15 (Florida).  The Gators finished 8th in the SEC yet they are the 28th ranked team nationally (power rating).  They are very good defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 14th in the nation.  Nevada won 24 of their first 25 games this year but were just 5-3 in their final 8 games and trending downward in our opinion.  Lost in the MWC semi-finals to San Diego State, their 2nd loss at the hands of the Aztecs this season.  Senior forward Jordan Caroline (17 PPG & 10 RPG) missed the game vs SDSU due to an Achilles issue but will be back for this game but not at 100%.  Nevada has a very thin bench and they rely almost exclusively on their starters + 1 sub.  Nevada played only 3 games the entire season vs teams that made the NCAA tourney.  They were 2-1 splitting with conference rival Utah State and beating Arizona State by 6 in the non-conference.  Florida played the MUCH tougher schedule and seems to be peaking.  Take the Gators
 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
St. Mary's vs Villanova
UNDER 131 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 131 Points - St Marys vs Villanova, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET

St Mary’s won WCC tourney by beating Gonzaga 60-47.  Nova won the Big East tourney winning their 3 games by margins of 11, 4 in OT, and 2 points.  Zags averaged 90 PPG on the season and St Mary’s held them to 69 & 47 points their final 2 meetings of the season.  Gaels held 6 of their final 8 opponents to 65 points or less and they play very slow ranking #347 in tempo out of 351 teams.  Villanova plays very slow as well (#333 in tempo) so not many possessions in this game.  Nova relies heavily on the 3-point shot with almost 43% of their points coming from beyond the arc (9th most nationally).  The Gaels defend the 3 well so that should make it tough on Nova's offense.  Neither team fouls very much so we don't expect many points from the charity stripe in this game.  Neither team is adept at forcing turnovers and both protect the ball well offensively so we won't see many steals and run outs here.  We expect this game to be a grinder with the winner scoring in the low 60's.  UNDER is the play.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Old Dominion vs Purdue
Old Dominion
+12½ -104 at GTBets
Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion +12.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET

ODU won 3 down to the wire games in CUSA tourney to get here by margins of 1, 2, and 6 points. Purdue was upset by Minnesota 75-73 in the Big Ten Quarterfinals and lost to the Gophs twice down the stretch. The Monarchs are a slow team (#325 in tempo) that plays very good defense. They hold teams to 0.96 PPP and they rank 14th nationally limiting opponents to an eFG% of just 45.6%. They will absolutely turn this game into a grinder. They do have solid guard play with Stith and Carver leading the team in scoring (both 16 PPG). The Boilers shoot 3’s. That’s what they do. Unfortunately their main man Carsen Edwards has taken over 600 shots on the year (almost double the next highest for Purdue) and he is wearing down. He's made just 25% of this 3 point attempts over his last 3 games.  ODU's guards are physical and play very good defense so Edwards may struggle again. Purdue relies heavily on the 3 point shot and the Monarchs are solid defending the arc allowing just 32%.  While ODU does struggle on offense, they shouldn't need to do much on that end to cover this big number.  This is expected to be a very low scoring game with the total set at 126 to getting this many points is the play. OLD DOMINION

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Bradley vs Michigan State
UNDER 134 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 134 Points - Bradley vs Michigan State, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET

After starting the conference season 0-5, Bradley rallied and finished in 5th place in the MVC this year with a 9-9 record.  They won the MVC tourney winning 3 games in 3 days last weekend, 2 of those as an underdog.  The Braves scored just 61, 53, and 57 points in those 3 and were able to win all 3.  Scoring has been a problem for Bradley scoring just 66 PPG this season finishing 8th in the 10 team league.  This team hasn’t gotten to 70 points since February 9th.  Braves play very slow (#299 in tempo) and rely on their defense which was #1 in the Missouri Valley in eFG% defense.  Bradley will have a tough time getting their offense moving in the right direction vs MSU defense that ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency and 6th in eFG% defense.  It’s easily the best defense Bradley has faced this year.  To give you an idea, the top rated defense in the MVC is Loyola and they rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency, basically 90 spots below Michigan State.  Only 1 of MSU’s last 11 opponents has topped 70 points.  This should be a grinder and UNDER is the play.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Murray State vs Marquette
OVER 149 -115 Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Top Premium

OVER 149.5 Murray State vs Marquette, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET (Hartford, CT)

Murray State can score as they average 81 PPG.  Guard Ja Morant will be a first round NBA pick and he is averaging 24 PPG.  He’s not the only Racer that can score as they have 3 others that average more than 10 PPG.   You’d think with good guard play Murray State shoots a lot of 3’s but they don’t.  They score almost 54% of their points inside the arc which is 60th nationally.  They also shoot 57% inside the arc which is the 2nd best percentage in the nation.  Marquette is the opposite.  They shoot a lot of 3’s and they make them at a 39.3% clip (9th nationally).  Markus Howard, the Hauser brothers, and Sacar Anim ALL shoot over 40% from deep.  They struggle to score inside with most of those points coming off 3-point misses.  Murray State’s defense looks like they match up well as they give up only 28% from beyond the arc which is good for 4th best nationally.  However, that might be exaggerated due to their easy schedule (270TH) which also plays a part in their inflated defensive efficiency numbers of .987 points per possession. Murray State ranks 97th in tempo or pace and get a shot up every 16.4 seconds which is 64th.  Marquette is 119th in tempo and get a field goal attempt every 16.9 seconds for 96th. Both teams are top 50 in EFG% offense meaning they don’t need a lot of attempts to efficiently score. It all adds up to an EASY OVER!

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
St. Louis vs Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
-10 -110 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Virginia Tech -10 over St Louis, Friday at 9:55 PM ET

This is a terrible match up for a St Louis team that really shouldn’t even be in this tourney.  The Billikens were the 4th best team in the A10 this year but made a 4 wins in 4 days run in the conference tourney to get in.  First of all that’s not a great situation to begin with as far as STL’s depth is concerned.  They are a very thin team (341st in depth) and they will now be playing their 5th game in 9 days.  They are a terrible shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG%, 327th in 3-point % (30.8%) and dead last in FT % (59%).  Tonight they face one of the best defenses in the nation as VT ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  The Billikens aren’t used to playing top notch defenses as they faced just 4 top 50 defenses (adjusted efficiency) the entire season and averaged 60 PPG in those games.  Tech has a mammoth edge offensively in this game where they rank 7th nationally in eFG% and that’s with a majority of their games in the ACC which has 10 top 50 defenses.  Tech also lights it up from 3-point land hitting 39% which ranks 9th nationally.  The Hokies are tough to guard with 4 players averaging between 13 and 17 PPG.  They should also get a boost tonight (both on the court and emotionally) when their leader, point guard Justin Robinson (14 PPG), returns from injury.  He’s been out since February 1st and while we don’t expect a ton of production from him in his first game back, just having him back on the court will be a lift for his teammates.  With this total set at 126, the oddsmakers expect a final score in the 68-58 range.  We think Va Tech gets into the 70’s here while we have a hard time seeing St Louis getting to that number of 58 here.  Take Virginia Tech tonight.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Iona vs North Carolina
UNDER 166½ -110
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 166.5 Points - Iona vs North Carolina, Friday at 9:20 PM ET

We see this game playing out very much like yesterday’s game between Gonzaga and Farleigh Dickinson.  It was a game the Zags jumped out big and led 53-17 at halftime.  In the 2nd half with a large lead, the Zags shut it down and coasted to an 87-49 win (146 points).  FDU really struggled to score against the longer, more athletic Zags.  We see Iona having the same problem here.  If the Gaels were a prolific 3-point shooting team or really good shooting team period, then we wouldn’t be on this under.  But the fact is, Iona was an average shooting team in a bad defensive conference.  They rank 133rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 133rd in 3-point shooting percentage.  That’s in an MAAC that was terrible defensively with 9 of their 11 teams ranking 200 or lower in defensive efficiency.  Now Iona faces a UNC defense that ranks 10th nationally in that category.  We feel Iona will struggle to get good shots and struggle to score in this game.  UNC will score and they’ll run.   That’s what they do.  However, that’s what Gonzaga likes to do as well and you saw how that game turned out.  UNC could score 50 or more by halftime but the in the 2nd half we look for them to slow the game down a bit, substitute players, and make sure they are fresh for Sunday, similar to what the Zags did yesterday.  We don’t think Iona gets to 70 in this game.  We look for low 60’s based on our numbers.  If that happens UNC has to get to 100 for this to have a chance.  Even if the Heels keep the pressure on, which we can’t imagine they will, and get to 95, Iona would have to get to 72 to get this game over the number.  We just don’t see that happening.  With UNC favored by 22 the oddsmakers see this score around 94-72.  We think neither team reaches that number.  Take the UNDER. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 22, 2019
Spurs vs Rockets
UNDER 220½ -110
Play Type: Premium

ASA play on: #509/510 UNDER 220.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets, 8PM ET  - Playoff intensity is starting to pick up in the NBA as teams are vying for playoff spots or seeds. This game is no different as we have a pair of Texas rivals that could face each other in the first round. Let’s analyze both teams against similar competition in recent games. The Spurs have played three straight playoff bound teams in Miami, Golden State and Portland and those games finished with 215, 216 and 211 total points. Now the Spurs face an opponent in Houston that is slower paced than any of those teams. The Rockets rank 27th in the NBA in pace of play at 97.6 possessions per game. The Spurs also play slow with the 9th slowest tempo in the league at 98.5PPP. In both teams last five games that slow play trend has continued and there is no reason to expect a change here. When we examine the Rockets recent games against comparable teams to the Spurs, we see a 210 total against the Warriors, 198 versus Philly, 202 at Toronto and 219 against the Celtics. Based on our math model this game projects out to 213 total points. Combined these two teams have an Under streak of 9-0 when playing a team with a .500 or better record and 12 of the last fifteen meeting here have stayed below the number.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Georgia State vs Houston
UNDER 142 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 142 Points - Georgia State vs Houston, Friday at 7:20 PM ET

This play is backed by a longtime trend that involves a #3/#14 seed which is 12-30 to the Under the last 42 times it’s applied. This Houston Cougars team isn’t the Phi Slama Jama team of the early 80’s, that was built on transition and outscoring opponents. This Cougars team is tenacious defensively with the 13th overall defensive efficiency rating and the #1 EFG% defense. Houston is the 2nd best team in nation in defending the 3-point shot and 5th against 2-pointers. The Cougars also protect the rim with a team that ranks 20th in the country in block percentage. On the year Houston held opponents to just 36.7% shooting and 61.2PPG. Georgia State allowed 1.026 points per possession this year which is above average by national standards, but it was their D late in the season which has us excited for this Under. In their last five games the Panthers have held opponents to just 37% shooting and an average of 65PPG. And three of those five games came against the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is an efficiency conference overall that likes to play fast. In their two Sun Belt tourney games the Panthers combined for just 105 points with Texas State and 137 with UT Arlington. The bet here is UNDER the total. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Arizona State vs Buffalo
Arizona State
+5 -110 at YouWager
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over Buffalo, Friday at 4 PM ET

We were on ASU in their first 4 game vs St Johns and the game was never really in doubt.  The Devils never trailed and led by as many at 18 points.  We felt ASU was going to be a very dangerous team in this tourney if they got in.  They had some ups and downs during the Pac 12 season – although they finished 2nd by themselves behind Washington – but they are very talented.  If focused and motivated they showed what they can do beating Kansas early in the season when the Jayhawks were ranked #1.  They have NBA talent on their team in Dort & Cheatham and they are tough to guard with 4 guys averaging 11+ PPG.  We respect Buffalo and feel they are very good, however we also feel they are overrated coming into this tourney.  They breezed through the MAC to a 16-2 record, however we felt all year the MAC is simply a poor Division 1 league.  The MAC has just 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (Toledo & Buffalo) and Toledo has already been whipped by 14 @ Xavier in the NIT.  The other MAC team that has played thus far in the post-season is Central Michigan and they lost by 14 @ DePaul (the lowest rated team in the Big East) and gave up 100 points in the process.  The MAC is proving us correct thus far.  The Bulls simply haven’t played a team anywhere close to as talented as Arizona State since mid December and that was a 103-85 loss to Marquette.  Their best win was @ Syracuse which was solid and then their next best non-conference win was in OT vs West Virginia which looked great at the time but WVU turned out to be one of the 2 worst teams in the Big 12.  Many talk about the 5 vs 12 upsets over the years but they should be talking about the 6 vs 11.  The 11 seeds are 21-19 SU and 26-14 ATS the last 40.  Better yet, when the 6 seed is from a mid major conference (Buffalo) and the 12 seed is from a Power 5 conference (ASU) the 6 seed is 1-14 ATS!  We like Arizona State to pull off this upset and move on.  Take the points.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Iowa vs Cincinnati
Cincinnati
-3½ -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Cincinnati -3.5 over Iowa, Friday at 12:15 PM ET

We love this match up for Cincy.  The Bearcats were the 2nd best team in the AAC all season long behind Houston.  They beat Houston in the AAC Championship game by double digits which was extremely impressive as the Cougars are a 3-seed in the NCAA with a 31-3 record.  They dominated their game vs Houston holding the lead from start to finish.  Now they face an Iowa team that simply played terrible down the stretch.  It could be argued the Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the Big 10 since mid February.  They lost 6 of their last 8 games and even their wins weren’t impressive with 4 of their last 5 W’s were very close coming down to the final minute of the game.  We were looking to go against the Hawkeyes in this tourney and we feel we have a perfect match up to do so here.  Iowa is one of the worst defensive teams in the NCAA field ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 207th in eFG% defense.  Compare that to Cincinnati’s defense (28th and 52nd in those categories) and you’ll see the Bearcats have a big advantage defensively.  Cincy can struggle at times offensively, however they looked like the caught fire in the AAC tourney on that end of the court putting up 1.30, 1.05, and 1.13 points per possession in their 3 games.  That final number (1.13 PPP) was against a Houston defense that is 11th in the nation defensively allowing just 0.91 PPP.  Now facing a porous Iowa defense, we like the Cincinnati offense to play well again.  The Bearcats should also get a number of 2nd chances as they are 4th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage facing an Iowa team that ranks 221st in defensive rebounding.  This game is also being played in Columbus OH so this should have a home game feel for Cincinnati which is only 100 miles away.  Iowa spent the early part of the Big Ten season beating up on teams in the lower half of the league.  It caught up to them down the stretch as they were just 2-9 SU in the Big 10 versus teams that made the NCAA tourney.  The Bearcats are the tougher team with the better defense and better rebounding.  They’ll hold their own offensively and cover this one.

SERVICE BIO

The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwins), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 50+ years in the industry.  Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s.  After learning the handicapping trade from one of the best in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since.  They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year.  They have posted a winning record on Top Games in 14 of their 19 football seasons giving them the much earned reputation as the top BIG GAME HANDICAPPERS in the country.  ASA is located in Madison, WI and they have also become known for their “Midwest ties” and handicapping prowess in the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten.     

ASAwins has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests  including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few.  They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season. 

ASAwins handicapping methods have been developed through years of hard work and research. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections.  They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping.  That’s not where they stop however.  They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest).  On top of that, they analyze each pointspread (and their movements) comparing them with their own water tight power ratings to find where an edge might be found.  So as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all of these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years because they provide their customers with the one thing they look for in this industry and that is WINNING RESULTS! 

Lee & Mike at ASAwins have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so.  Their 50+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need.  Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you hire ASAwins as your stock brokers!