Bryan Power Bryan Power
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2019
Rangers vs Mariners
UNDER 9½ +105 Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Texas arrives in Seattle on a season-worst seven game win streak. They are still one of nine teams in the American League above .500 (50-49), but their Wild Card hopes are fading fast. Truthfully, this was an overachieving team in the first half of the season. They've got a shot to turn things around though against the last place Mariners, whom they've already beaten in 7 of 10 head to head meetings this year. Also, Seattle comes into the series having dropped eight of its last nine games. Take the Under. 

Texas just couldn't score enough in Houston over the weekend, totaling just seven runs in the three games. During this seven-game slide, they've averaged only 3.3 rpg while batting a collective .175. For the fourth time this season, they are set to face Seattle starter Marco Gonzales. While one of those previous three didn't go well for Gonzales, the other two saw him limit the Rangers' hitters to only two runs in 14 IP. His last time starting at home saw him hold Oakland to just two runs and five hits in 8 IP. That was a far cry from when he faced the A's in Oakland last Tuesday and he allowed six runs. That poor effort snapped a stretch of six straight starts where Gonzales allowed 3 ER or less. 

Adrian Sampson gets the starting nod tonight for the Rangers. He hasn't started a game since July 5th when he was shelled by Minnesota for seven runs. But the Twins are one of the top offensive teams in all of MLB. The Mariners have been held to three runs or less in seven of their eight games since the All-Star Break. All seven instances were losses and they scored just 14 runs in those games. Sampson has a 3.00 ERA in four previous appearances vs. the M's, his former team. He beat them twice back in May, allowing just four runs across 10+ innings. 10* Under Rangers/Mariners

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2019
Cubs vs Giants
OVER 8½ -120 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Over Cubs/Giants (9:45 ET): This is the one game in this report where I expect plenty of runs to be scored. It's hardly a strong matchup of a starting pitchers as the Cubs go w/ the relatively untested Alec Mills and the Giants go w/ the ineffective Shaun Anderson. The Cubs' last six games have all stayed Under the total, but we look for them to break out tonight as they actually average more runs per game outside of Wrigley. Admittedly, the Giants' offense has been pretty putrid here at home, but they'll have their chances today against Mills. Take the Over. 

The Cubs had won five in a row before losing 5-1 to the Padres Sunday. They are still 7-2 since the Break w/ all of those games played at home. Chalk yday up to being "one of those days," but we think the offense should fare well against Anderson as he has an 8.78 ERA and 2.101 WHIP his L3 starts. Those L3 starts all went Over w/ Anderson allowing 13 runs in 13 1/3 IP. They were all on the road, but Anderson's numbers at home this year aren't much better. Cubs' road games have been averaging more than 10.5 rpg this year. 

Anderson actually has a 3-0 TSR those L3 starts as well, thanks to the Giants scoring 28 runs, including 21 in the last two. Overall, his L4 starts have all gone Over. The Giants needed all of 11 runs to take three of four from the Mets over the weekend and what's interesting is that series went 47 innings as all three Giants' wins were in extra innings. I don't like their chances nearly as much in this series, but they've got a shot here as they're up against an unproven starter (only 1 start in 2019) and the Cubs' bullpen has generally been BAD on the road (5.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP). The Giants are 9-2 since the All-Star Break. 8* Over Cubs/Giants

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2019
Marlins vs White Sox
UNDER 9½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Under Marlins/White Sox (8:10 ET): What a miserable matchup this is for Monday. You've got two of the three lowest scoring teams in baseball here, so I don't think calling for an Under would be unreasonable. For awhile, Miami was looking like they might produce the fewest runs scored in a season since the "Dead Ball Era." Now they're just battling w/ Detroit for fewest runs scored this year. They're still producing only 3.6 rpg and were shutout yday (by the Dodgers). Not too far ahead of them are the White Sox, averaging 4.2 rpg and losers of 8 of 10 games since the Break. Take the Under in this one, folks.

Miami's last two games both went Over as they allowed 19 total runs. But that was against the Dodgers. The White Sox seem incapable of that kind of offensive production as they've topped five runs only once in their last 12 games. I'd issued a "warning" to the Southside as this team is far worse than it's 44-52 record. They've been outscored by 98 runs. That's the same differential as the 36-61 Marlins, who by the way have topped four runs just three times in the L10 games. Yesterday's shutout was the 15th instance of that happening to them this year. 

On paper, this doesn't look like a great starting pitching battle for Monday. But Ivan Nova has strong career numbers vs. Miami. He's a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.98 ERA in four career starts against them. Also, the last time Nova started here at home, he shut out the Cubs for 5+ innings in a 3-1 win. Meanwhile, the White Sox have never seen Miami starter Trevor Richards, who has done an adequate job pitching for a bad team this season. The Under is 4-1 in Richards' last five road starts and 12-4-1 in the Marlins' L17 road games overall. 8* Under Marlins/White Sox

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2019
A's vs Astros
UNDER 8½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Under A's/Astros (8:10 ET): Oakland comes into this very important series having won 8 of 10. But they lost yday in crushing fashion up in Minnesota Sunday and would seem to be on the wrong end of a pretty severe pitching mismatch in Monday's opener. Furthermore, the Astros just swept the Rangers over the weekend, holding them to all of all of five runs. The last run through the Houston rotation saw the five starters all allow three runs or fewer. Now tonight it'll be (arguably) the best of the lot going, Gerrit Cole, who leads all of MLB in strikeouts w/ 194. But I also don't project Houston to score much in this game, so Under is the call here. 

At first, I was a little leery of believing in Oakland starter Homer Bailey in this spot. After all, Bailey has a 5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. But that's skewed by one bad one (at Toronto on 6.29) when he was still w/ Kansas City. He's actually allowed 3 ER in six of his last seven starts overall, posting a 2.85 ERA during that time. Bailey also has good career marks vs. Houston as he's 3-0 lifetime against them w/ a 1.46 ERA in eight career efforts. As a member of the Royals, Bailey tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings vs. the Astros back on 6.18.

So Bailey should do just fine here. But the rest of the Oakland lineup should struggled against Cole, who has looked great of late while posting huge strikeout totals. Cole has given up 2 ER or less in 9 of his previous 10 outings, one of those coming against the A's (back on 6.2). In his L2 starts, Cole has 24 K's. He's got a 0.924 WHIP at home this year where his TSR is 9-2. The A's have really struggled to beat the Astros this season as they are 1-7 in eight head to head meetings, plus they've scored two runs or less in six of those games. 8* Under A's/Astros

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 23, 2019
Phillies vs Tigers
UNDER 8 +103
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Phillies/Tigers (7:10 ET): Detroit has devolved into one of the worst teams in all of baseball w/ their 30-65 record and -169 run differential. The only team w/ a comparable record is Baltimore and you can expect these two moribund ballclubs to "battle it out" to see who finishes w/ the worst record in MLB this year. Given the current state of the Tigers, it would seem imperative that the Phillies take advantage of their next two games here as they badly need wins to remain viable in the NL Wild Card hunt. Problem is, I'm not confident they'll score a lot of runs tonight. Take the Under.

Philly definitely didn't do a lot of scoring in its last series, though they were able to take two of three from Pittsburgh. They won the rubber match Sunday, 2-1, a day after losing 5-1. All three games in the series stayed Under as have 7 of the team's L10 games overall. In those 10 games, the Phils have been held to four runs or less six times. Another reason I don't see them doing that well at the plate tonight is they're going up against Matthew Boyd, who is Detroit's best starter. Granted, Boyd's ERA has risen over the last month or so, but he still sports a very respectable 3.36 ERA and 1.012 WHIP here at Comerica Park.

The Tigers are averaging only 3.3 runs per game at home this season, which is the lowest average of any team in baseball. So that's a good sign for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has often struggled on the road this year. But Nola brings in a 3.06 ERA his L3 starts and had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive outings before running into the Dodgers his last time out. The Phillies aren't the Dodgers and in fact are hitting a collective .213 over their L7 games. With the Under being 8-1 the L9 times Philly has been off an off day, this should be a low-scoring game. 10* Under Phillies/Tigers

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 23, 2019
Red Sox vs Rays
Red Sox
-160 at YouWager
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Boston (7:05 ET): If I may offer a "peek behind the curtain," I've got the Red Sox finishing AHEAD of the Rays and grabbing the second Wild Card in the American League. If that projection is to come to fruition, then Boston has to make a statement (i.e. win!) this series as the Rays are currently reeling. The visitors got off to a great start last night, jumping out to an early 8-0 advantage and holding on for the 9-4 win in a game TB ended up using a position player to pitch the ninth inning. That's just the state of the team right now as the Rays have dropped six of seven while being outscored 41-17 in the process. I'm backing the Red Sox here. 

I know he's struggled some in 2019, but this is a great price on Chris Sale, who is coming off a superb showing vs. Toronto. Not only did he strike out 12, but Sale held the Blue Jays scoreless for six innings and allowed only two hits. Granted, Toronto is bad, but TB isn't exactly hitting the cover off the baseball right now either.  The Rays lineup has produced more than four runs in a game only one time since the Break. Plus, Sale's 1.92 ERA at Tropicana Field is the lowest for him at any park in which he's made at least five starts. Despite the poor ROI on him this season, Sale's WHIP is still 1.079 in 20 starts, which is not bad at all. 

Tampa Bay obviously has pitching concerns if they're turning to a position player to pitch in a key division game. One could make the case that the game was already out of hand, but MLB rules state you're supposed to only use a position player on the mound if trailing by 6+ runs. On Tuesday, the Rays will start Yonny Chrinos, who didn't have a good time w/ the Yankees on Thursday as he allowed 5 runs in 5 IP. Considering that Boston is hitting a lot better than TB is right now, this would seem to be a mismatch. The Red Sox come in averaging nearly 6.0 rpg on the road this season! 10* Boston

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