10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State (4:00 ET): Obviously, this is not a matchup I'd normally pay much attention to, unless something caught my eye. In this instance, we have a clearly inflated total due to the previous peformance of one of the two participants and that performance clearly is not going to be duplicated again here. I'm referencing Fort Wayne and their 112-point effort Thursday against D-III Earlham College where five players scored in double figures. It's a big step up in class for the Mastadons on Sunday as they visit Ohio State. 

While everyone in Columbus is probably still out celebrating yday's win on the football field over Michigan State, hopefully the basketball team's 64-56 win over Cincinnati was not missed. Wednesday night saw the Buckeyes (were +4.5) upset the Bearcats in the latter's return to its on-campus arena where it didn't even get to play one game all of last season. OSU did it w/ defense, holding Cincy to a ridiculously low 27.4% shooting for the game. It was a shockingly easy victory for the Buckeyes, who led virtually the entire way and at point held the Bearcats w/o a field goal for eight minutes in the 1st half. 

We obviously need to be wary of the Fort Wayne defense here as it was torched for 96 points by UCLA in the season's first game. But I don't see Ohio State coming close to matching that here, given they were hardly world-beaters offensively Wednesday night. They're looking to replace some key contributors from LY's 25-win team, including their top three-point shooter. Right before the start of the season, both of these teams lost a player; Ohio State via transfer and Ft. Wayne to injury. Note that Ft. Wayne was a dreadful 9 of 34 from three-point range in the game vs. UCLA. One good thing is they're allowing just 30% shooting from behind the arc in the two games. Look for this be more of a "grind it out" type game. 10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State  

10* Denver (8:05 ET): This already figured to be a terrible spot for Milwaukee as it's their fifth game in eight days, third in four and second of a back to back. It's also the finale of a four-game trip out West and they're ending in Denver after playing in the Pacific Time Zone (LA) yday. Losing that hour is critical as going from the West Coast to Denver has long been one of the most brutal spots any NBA team can face not just b/c of the time change, but also due to the thin air here, which leads to added fatigue. Never mind the fact that the Nuggets are also now one of the NBA's best teams. So that's what Milwaukee was already up against coming into Sunday and now the situation is made worse by the fact they lost an overtime game Saturday to the Clippers. The Bucks are a big-time fade for me tonight. 

Milwaukee was "riding high" coming into the weekend as they were 9-2 and coming off a 134-111 thrashing of the Warriors (in Oakland) on Thursday. But the OT loss to the Clippers yesterday afternoon had to take a lot out of them. They were down 15 early, but battled back and it's a game they could have won. But they lost on a buzzer beater instead. While on the subject of winning, I should point out that's something that Milwaukee has NOT done here in Denver since 2010. Also, the Bucks are only 3-3 SU on the road this year. They've lost three of the past four road games in fact. 

Don't expect the Nuggets to feel the least bit sorry for the Bucks tonight. They are coming off B2B two-point losses to Memphis and Brooklyn, the latter coming right here at home. It was Denver's 1st home loss of the season. But they're still 6-1 SU here and outscoring visitors by 10 PPG. Despite losing to Brooklyn 112-110 on Friday (I had the Over!), Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had a breakout game w/ 37 points and 21 rebounds. Jokic been shockingly quiet in the team's previous four contests, so it was nice to see him assert himself. I'll call for another big game from him tonight. This may be a battle of two teams in the top five in the league right now, but one has a clear advantage. Last weekend, the Nuggets beat Utah by double digits in a similar situation. 10* Denver

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans picked up a much needed win on MNF, going to Dallas and beating the Cowboys 28-14 as 4-pt underdogs. Now they're on a short week against the Patriots, who are off a primetime win themselves, theirs coming Sunday night at home against Green Bay. While facing Bill Belichick on a short week is hardly ideal, at least the Titans have a former player for Belichick on their sidelines in the form of HC Mike Vrabel. So that helps. So too does getting this game in Nashville where they've won 12 of their last 15 games. New England hasn't been nearly as impressive on the road this year, losing at both Detroit and Jacksonville and needing a tackle on the 1-yd line to win in Chicago. Their lone road win this year by more than seven points was in Buffalo and even then they needed a late "pick-six" to cover. Take the points. 

Two of Tennessee's four losses this year have been by a single point. They have just one loss by more than seven points and that was the last time they played a home game, three weeks ago vs. Baltimore (lost 21-0). That game saw them get completely overwhelmed by the Ravens' top-ranked defense, but I don't see that happening again here. Also, in four road games, the Patriots offense has only scored seven touchdowns, three of those in one game (Chicago). The Titans have a really good defense having not allowed more than 20 pts in regulation since Week 1. Another key factor in handicapping this game is Tennessee had its bye two weeks ago, so they are relatively "fresh." New England has yet to have its bye (comes next week) and is playing a 10th consecutive week.

Both teams won by two touchdowns last week, but for the Patriots, things were actually much closer than they ended up. The game was tied 17-17 and Green Bay was marching down for the go-ahead score when they fumbled the ball away. Meanwhile, the Titans largely dominated the Cowboys, outgaining them 340-297 and holding them scoreless in the second half. The Titans' offensive numbers for the year may not seem that impressive, but few teams have faced a tougher slate of defenses and they just scored their season high in points. The New England defense isn't that great as they have given up over six yards per play on the road. I'm actually expecting this to be a pretty low-scoring game, which will give the Titans a chance at the upset. 8* Tennessee

8* Detroit (1:00 ET): Another game where the line has shifted somewhat significantly from the lookahead. In this instance, the Bears are now favored over the Lions by about a touchdown, rather than a field goal. The shift has a lot to do w/ last week as the Bears routed Buffalo (41-9) while the Lions lost at Minnesota, 24-9. But sometimes looks can be deceiving as Chicago was actually outgained by the Bills (264-190) only to feast on Nathan Peterman turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Detroit wasn't as bad as the final score showed last week. They had more first downs than the Vikings, but unfortunately allowed QB Matt Stafford to be sacked 10 times. The Lions have beaten the Bears 9 of the last 10 meetings. Take the points. 

With Chicago now "expected" to win, let's see how they perform. At the start of the year, this was a team that I said could surprise and get to 9-7 SU and the playoffs. That's precisely the trajectory that we're looking at right now. Perhaps their 5-3 SU record should not come as any shock seeing as they've been favored in six of their eight games. It's impressive that they are 5-3 ATS, but now the spreads are starting to get bigger. While they did cover last week as big road favorites, as I mentioned there were extenuating circumstances there. Before the last two weeks, only one of their games (a 48-10 win over Tampa Bay) had been decided by more than seven points. I'm just not convinced this team is ready to cover a third straight game as a big favorite.

Detroit should have the edge at QB in this game. The Bears' Mitchell Trubisky threw for only 355 yards (total) the last two weeks. For Chicago, this could be a lookahead spot as they have a huge home game vs. Minnesota next week (for 1st place in the NFC North). Meanwhile, Matt Patricia's Lions are fighting for relevancy. Another loss for them and the season would basically be over at 3-6 SU. We should be getting their best shot. I just feel this number is an overreaction to the final scores we've seen from both sides the L2 wks. Detroit isn't as bad and Chicago isn't as good as we've seen during that time. 8* Detroit

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There was a brief glimmer of hope early in the season (started 2-2-1), but it's back to the "same old Browns" as Cleveland has lost four in a row coming into this week. They fired both their HC (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley) two weeks ago, but that hardly mattered as the defense couldn't stop Kansas CIty in a 37-21 loss on Sunday. But few teams have been able to stop the Chiefs' offense this season. What's interesting here is that the lookahead line for this game had Cleveland getting only two points from the oddsmakers. After another blowout loss and Atlanta crushing Washington last week, the spread has moved substantially. To the point where now I believe we're getting some nice value w/ the Browns. Take the points.

The Falcons have fought their way back to 4-4 SU, winning three in a row. I don't think there's any denying that they are off their best game of the season, a 38-14 win over the Redskins where they rolled up nearly 500 total yds on a pretty good defense. But it was also the first time all season that Atlanta won a game by more than seven points. This is the second of back to back road games for the team, a situation they have not yet faced in 2018 and won't be in again for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland is getting to play a second straight home game. The knock on Atlanta for years is that they aren't as good outdoors and Cleveland should be pretty chilly on Sunday. 

Incredibly, the Browns are on a 13-game ATS losing streak in the month of November. They have a banged up secondary coming into this game, which isn't good when facing a QB like Matt Ryan. But, despite the lack of success, the Browns have been largely competitive this season. They've gone to overtime FOUR times (1-2-1) and only three of their nine games have been decided by more than four points. All three have been in the last four weeks. I like the spot here and expect them to be competitive as QB Baker Mayfield actually played well last week, throwing for almost 300 yards. The Browns' defense is better than what it showed last week and has forced 23 turnovers on the year, a league-high. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense is still 4th worst in the league in efficiency due to a combo of injuries and a tough schedule. The Falcons were 1-3 ATS as road favorites of a FG or more last season. 8* Cleveland

10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Ok, so I KNOW what you're already saying. "Not the Raiders!" This team has certainly become somewhat of a "dumpster fire" here in 2018 w/ HC Jon Gruden totally dismantling the roster and the results (1-7 SU record) speak for themselves. But I have tremendous faith in my own personal power rankings and they say that - getting double digits at home - the Raiders are a tremendous value this week. Consider for a moment that when they played the Chargers out in LA last month, they were "only" a six-point dog. Now they lost the game 26-10 and have certainly not played much better since. But this is a ton of points at home. Take 'em.

The Chargers are a hot team right now as they've won five straight to get to 6-2 SU on the year. They are off perhaps their most impressive victory to date, 25-17 at Seattle. Before that, the list of teams that Los Angeles had beaten - Bills, 49ers, Raiders, Browns, Titans - wasn't all that impressive. Note that LW's game in Seattle hinged on an INT return for a TD early in the 4Q. But total yds were relatively even in that game (375-356 in favor of the Chargers). To me, this sets up to be the classic "trap game" for the Lightning Bolts, who have not been DD road favorites since 2009. Three of their last five victories have been by eight points or less.

Oakland was humiliated on national TV in its last game, a 34-3 loss to a 49ers team starting a 3rd string QB. That was on a Thursday, so at least they've had extra time to prepare here. As bad as things look right now for the Raiders, this is a division game coming on the heels of being mocked by everyone for a terrible effort. If they can't "get up" for this game, then you might as well just move them to Vegas on Monday. Too many points, not to take here. 10* Oakland