6* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Don't look now, but the Giants have won back to back games (first time since a six-game win streak was snapped on 7.2). Both times saw them rally at Cleveland's expense, first winning a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, then scoring three times in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-4 last night. Meanwhile, their weekend visitors just got swept in embarrassing fashion at Colorado. I played against the Padres yesterday and they were humbled, 18-4, dropping their already MLB-worst run differential to an unsightly -140. That's 34 runs worse than the Giants, who have the 2nd worst run differential in all of baseball. But the key to this play is not just how bad San Diego is, but also San Francisco, specifically starter Madison Bumgarner having revenge. Look for the G-Men to win again and send the slumping Padres to another defeat.

Bumgarner being winless is emblematic of this lost season for the Giants. Of course, that record comes with a rather "giant" (pun intended!) caveat, that being an injury that kept him out for almost three months. One could make the case that when "Mad-Bum" fell off the dirtbike in April, the Giants' season went with him. It has been a stunning fall from grace for a club that has won three World Series since 2010, but as stated above, they at least come into this series w/ some positive momentum (hate that word!). Saturday saw Bumgarner make his return against these Padres and while he lost (TSR now 0-5 in '17), there were signs of positive things to come, such as him striking out the side in the first inning. Unfortunately, he gave up two homers and that ended up being the difference in a 5-3 defeat.

Bumgarner will face the same pitcher he squared off against Saturday, that being Jhoulys Chacin. As we know, it's exceedingly rare to have the same pitchers face off in consecutive starts and one to win both times. Chacin has actually pitched well for the Padres of late, but he's generally been horrible on the road this year w/ an 8.16 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. The fact he has a 4-5 TSR in his nine road starts seems quite fortunate. Those concerned w/ this price range ought not to be. Yes, this will only be the second time all year that the Giants find themselves favored in the -175 to -250 price range. But, at home, they are 24-7 in that range the L3 seasons. San Diego, on the other hand, is 13-43 the L3 seasons as a ML road dog of +175 to +250. As I said when I played against them each of the L2 days, the Padres have been a terrible road team overall this year, now being outscored by an average of 1.7 rpg. 6* San Francisco

10* Texas (7:10 ET): Whenever I've played either on OR against the Rangers this season, I make it a point to talk about how this has been one of the hardest teams to evaluate - in all of baseball - the last two years. The 2016 club that won 95 games (most in the American League) was nowhere near as good as its record as they only outscored their opponents by a measly eight runs over the course of the year and were greatly aided by a historical 36-11 record in one-run games! This year, somewhat predictably, they've been just the opposite. Despite entering today at just 45-49, one could make a pretty clear-cut argument that they're much better than that record considering they've outscored their opponents by 10 runs (more than last year!). The big difference between this season and last is they're now 7-15 in one-run games, the WORST such record in baseball!

After winning their first two games after the All-Star Break, the Rangers have now dropped four straight, the last three coming here in Baltimore. Ironically, the Orioles are a team that has to be considered far WORSE than its 45-49 record (same as Rangers!) as they've been outscored by 73 runs this season. Coming into this series, they actually owned the worst run diff in the A.L. But with Cole Hamels on the mound Thursday, I see the Rangers avoiding the sweep. It was a shaky first start back for Hamels on 6.26 vs. Cleveland, but since then he's been "lights out" w/ a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball. He comes into today having not allowed a run in 21 consecutive innings, the longest such active streak in MLB. 

In terms of the starting pitching matchup here, it looks like a no contest as Baltimore will send the struggling Wade Miley to the bump. His last three starts have resulted in an 11.24 ERA and 2.748 WHIP. Twice in that stretch he's been tagged for seven runs, including his last time out, when I played against him vs. the Cubs. He's not gone a full six innings since June 1st, a span of eight starts. His ERA over those eight starts is a heinous 10.19. For the season, he has a WHIP of 1.79, one of the worst among all qualified AL starters. Texas has given him trouble throughout his career as in seven starts against them, his ERA is 5.75. The Rangers are the better team here, so what's happened in the series so far seems like an aberration to me. I look for their offense to wake up against Miley tonight. 10* Texas

9* St. Louis (2:20 ET): Despite the perception, the difference between the Cubs and Cards is quite minimal, if not completely non-existent. Granted, this weekend series takes place in Wrigley and the home team has won six in a row overall. Plus, they swept St. Louis in their previous visit to the "Friendly Confines" last month. But all of those factors have created a TON of value on the road dog here. The two offenses have virtually been identical this year w/ the Redbirds actually placing 12 spots higher in team batting average compared to their division rival. Then there's the pitching side of the ledger, where - to me - the Cards have a pretty commanding edge. That includes Friday afternoon where Carlos Martinez faces Jake Arrieta. The former has better numbers despite an inferior won-loss record. I'll gladly back St. Louis at "plus money" here.

The narrative entering this series will be "the Cubs are back" following a 6-0 road trip that saw them sweep Baltimore and Atlanta. But was that performance really all that impressive? Sure, the Orioles turned around and swept Texas in their next series, but their -71 run differential remains one of the worst in the American League. Atlanta could be the weakest second place team in recent memory. The Cubs have essentially lost money in all settings here in 2017 as they're clearly overvalued after last year's World Series Championship. Only four teams (Toronto, Philly, Cleveland, SF) have been less profitable and day games have been particularly costly to Cubs backers as they're down 12.1 units! 

These teams are separated by 3.5 games yet the respective YTD run differentials are quite similar. Prior to losing the previous two days, St. Louis had taken the first two games against the Mets. Let's also not be fooled by the recent showings of the two starting pitchers today. Jake Arrieta might have a 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP his L3 starts, but for the year he has a 4.17 ERA and 1.287 WHIP. Only 9 of his 19 starts have been quality. Yes, he's had the Cards' number here at Wrigley, but his overall skill set seems to have regressed. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez may have hit a bit of a rough patch for the Redbirds (0-5 TSR L5 starts), but for the year he still sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.143 WHIP, better numbers than Arrieta. He also has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Cubs this season, having allowed just three runs on 11 hits in 14 innings of work. His last time out, Martinez went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits against Pittsburgh. Here, there's a good chance he might not have to face Kris Bryant, which would obviously make his job a lot easier. 9* St. Louis