Bryan Power Bryan Power
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Jan 21, 2019
Blues vs Kings
UNDER 5½ -130 Lost
$130.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Kings/Blues (4:05 ET): This is a "juiced up" total, similar to the last time I played the Kings Under, which was Thursday, and that ended up being a 2-1 final (in their favor). Saturday's game didn't go nearly as well w/ LA losing 7-1 at Colorado. They played a historically bad period, giving up six goals in the second to the Avalanche and obviously had no chance after that. In my analysis from Thursday, I made mention that the Kings are just putrid offensively on the road. Well, they're not much better at home and that's why they are dead last in the league in goals per game. This afternoon, they'll face another low-scoring team and I think another Under is in the cards. 

St. Louis is coming off a 3-2 win over Ottawa Saturday night. It was a much needed win after suffering B2B losses. Save for a 5-2 setback in Boston Thursday night, there hasn't been a whole lot of scoring in recent Blues' games as that game in Beantown is the ONLY one of their last eight to see more than five combined goals scored. The Under is 7-1 in that stretch. The road has seen the Blues go 14-5-1 to the Under and while the Kings may be the league's lowest scoring road team, the Blues aren't far off, ranking 27th w/ just 2.35 goals per game. 

The respective offenses are what is keeping these teams at or near the basement in their respective divisions. St. Louis isn't going to do what Colorado did to the Kings on Saturday, thus this should more closely resemble a "normal" Kings game. The Kings are 9-3 Under their last 12 games and have scored more than two goals just once in the last six. In 7 of 10 games in January, the Blues have allowed two goals or fewer. In terms of shooting percentage, both of these clubs rank right near the very bottom of the league. When they met back in November, the result was a 2-0 shutout in favor of LA. Goals will again be hard to come by tonight. 10* Under Kings/Blues

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 21, 2019
Marshall vs Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky
-4½ -110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Western Kentucky (9:00 ET): This line should tell you all you need to know about the current C-USA standings. Marshall is the only team in the league w/o a loss, but the Thundering Herd come in as underdogs to Western Kentucky tonight in a rematch of a game played less than 10 days ago. Obviously, Marshall was victorious the first time around, but only by 1 point (70-69) and they had to rally back from a 15-point deficit. WKU is the better team here and should get its revenge tonight in Bowling Green. Lay the points. 

Western Kentucky knows it let one slip away in Huntington and thus should come out highly motivated this evening. The disappointment from losing to Marshall the first time seemed to carry over into the Hilltoppers' next game, also a one-point loss, where they were 10-pt favorites over Florida International. Then again, that was a game WKU led by as many as 16 - at home. That not only made it B2B 1-pt losses, but three straight by three points or less. Finally, the Hilltoppers were able to get back into the win column on Saturday, defeating FAU 72-66 in their own come from behind effort. WKU is better than its 9-9 record as its last six losses have all been by six points or less.

Marshall has had just the opposite luck in close games. That 70-69 win over Western Kentucky was their third straight win by three points or less at the time and second straight by exactly one point. In their last road game, they were only able to defeat Charlotte (last place team in C-USA) 85-84. The Herd are also off a week where they played both FAU and FIU (just in the reverse order). They gave up plenty of points in both games, including 97 to FIU on Saturday. That marked the SIXTH time this season that they've allowed 90 pts in a game! Marshall has just been awful defensively on the road, giving up 88.0 PPG for the year and they rank an atrocious 221st in the country in defensive efficiency. I rate them only as the 4th best team in C-USA w/ WKU as one of the three that are better. 10* Western Kentucky

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 21, 2019
Rockets vs 76ers
Rockets
+5 +102 at pinnacle
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Houston (8:05 ET): I think the better team is getting points in this one. James Harden has been on an all-time great run in terms of scoring, leading the Rockets to a 15-5 SU record in their last 20 games. Harden has scored 40 or more points in 10 of the last 13 games, including 48 in a wild come from behind victory out in Los Angeles Saturday night. Facing the LeBron-less Lakers, Houston trailed by as many as 21 before coming back to win the game in OT, 138-134. While falling into such a deep hole against a bad team doesn't exactly inspire confidence, this is a rare spot where the Rockets are getting points and I'll take advantage as Philadelphia remains overrated from where I sit.

The Sixers are coming off a loss Saturday afternoon to Oklahoma City. I played against them in that spot too, noting they were laying points to a better team. It ended up being just their 5th home loss of the year as Paul George saved the day for the Thunder w/ a four-point play in the final seconds. While that game ended up being close, note OKC led virtually the entire way and by as many as 16 in the first quarter. That terrible start ultimately doomed them. While the Sixers aren't likely to fall into such a deep early hole again tonight, the same can be said for the Rockets as it pertains to their previous effort. 

With a red-hot Harden, I expect the Rockets to shoot a lot better tonight than they have in the last two games. Houston has actually played two straight overtime games as they lost to Brooklyn last Wednesday, 145-142 despite 58 from Harden. I don't think the B2B OT games will be much of a factor here as the Rockets have only played twice in the last five days. I mentioned earlier that its rare to find them as underdogs. The only time they've been a dog of more than two points in the last month was at Golden State (were +9) and they won that game outright. I just don't think Philly should be favored by this many against what I still view as a superior team, even at home. Take the points. 8* Houston

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 21, 2019
Mavs vs Bucks
UNDER 225½ -115 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Under Mavs/Bucks (2:00 ET): Although Golden State has been making a strong case recently, I still consider Milwaukee to have been the best team in the league over the 1st half of the season. They now lead the Eastern Conference w/ a 33-13 SU record and have outscored their opponents by 10.0 PPG. That's a remarkable point differential over a 46-game stretch considering the next best team (Golden St) is +6.5 PPG. I'm sure the Bucks will score plenty this afternoon, but will their opponent? I look for this game to stay Under the total.

Dallas isn't exactly one of the top offensive teams in the league. On the road, they've played very poorly this season, going just 4-19 SU. A three-game losing streak is a killer in the current Western Conference climate and in this instance, it's dropped the Mavs to third from the bottom in the Western Conference. I do not see this team making any kind of serious run to the playoffs, but they do have at least one thing going for them and that's rookie Luka Doncic. Of course, Doncic's emergence has led to Dennis Smith Jr going AWOL, which isn't exactly what you want. In the Mavs last two games, they've scored "just" 200 points. 

In the Mavs previous 12 games, the Under has gone 9-2-1. On offense, they haven't been shooting the ball well for awhile now. They've been at or below 43% from the field in seven of the past eight games. The Under is also 7-0 off their previous seven losses. On Saturday, they lost 111-99 to Indiana. The Mavs have also gone Under in their last six non-conference games. Milwaukee has seen the Under cash in five of their last seven games. They aren't likely going to shoot the ball as well in this game as they did in their last one (55.3%) vs. Orlando. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 21, 2019
Bulls vs Cavs
Cavs
+2 -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I honestly thought the Cavs might be favored here.  There's certainly an argument that they should. While it's true Cleveland is the worst team in the league right now, Chicago isn't much better. In fact, I'd consider the Bulls to be the second worst team w/ a power rating that's just a "touch" better. The Cavs are dealing w/ some injuries right now and just finished up a tough road trip w/ B2B blowout losses at the hands of Utah and Denver. But Chicago isn't fully healthy right now either and the Cavs likely remember suffering a 20-point loss here on their home floor right before X-Mas. They'll get their revenge here. Take the points. 

Since beating the Cavs here on 12.23, the Bulls have dropped 10 straight and 11 of 12 overall. Tuesday's loss to the Lakers proved more costly than usual as Wendell Carter Jr tore ligaments in his thumb and is probably done for the season. Since losing Carter, the Bulls have lost by 30 to Denver and 14 to to Miami. Both of those opponents shot better than 52% from the field. The Bulls shot 39.3% in their last game as they continue to rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. It should be pointed out that Chicago was a slight dog the last time they came calling to Cleveland. The underdog is an incredible 22-5 ATS the past 27 meetings between these teams. 

The Cavs have also cashed six of their last eight games vs. teams w/ a winning percentage of .400 or below. These teams have similar YTD records and point differentials w/ Chicago only slightly better. There's not many games you'd "expect" Cleveland to win anymore, but this is one for me. They're off a tough West Coast swing, have revenge and I just can't see them losing for a third straight time to the Bulls this season, including a second straight at home. These teams rate fairly evenly in my book, so I absolutely think the home team deserves more respect. 10* Cleveland

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