8* Wolfsburg (10:30 AM ET): The good news through four games is that Wolfsburg is still unbeaten. The bad news is that they are also still winless. Die Wolf has opened the 2020-21 Bundesliga campaign with four straight draws, leaving them 13th in the table, an uncomfortable position for sure. Twice, they have rallied back from 1-0 deficits, including last week against Gladbach. The other two matches have been scoreless draws. This is where they breakthrough though as they face recently promoted Arminia Bielefeld.

The recently promoted side is level with Wolfsburg at four points. DSC is 1-1-2 and just got the proverbial “rude awakening” at the hands of Bayern Munich last week, losing 4-1. There’s no shame in losing to the best team in all of Europe, but look for there to be a “carryover” type effect for Die Arminien. After winning the 2 LY, they’d been pretty competitive before running into Bayern Munich. But the issue of scoring persists. They have scored 1 or 0 goals in every game this season. 

Only two teams have scored fewer times than DSC and Wolfsburg (just 2 goals) is one of them. (Schalke is the other). But I look for Wolfsburg to “break out” on Sunday. Arminia goaltender Stefan Ortega had a rough outing against Bayern Munich and that kind of performance leads me to believe Die Wolf will have their fair share of scoring opportunities here. As discussed LW, Arminia had a very high save percentage LY down in the 2, something that is not likely to carry over to the German top flight. 8* Wolfsburg

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Just hold your nose and take the points. At 0-6 SU/ATS, the Jets are obviously awful and considered by just about everybody to be the worst team in the league. But also, it’s been 22 years since a team opened 0-7 SU/ATS. That’s happened only three times in the Super Bowl era. The most consecutive ATS losses to open a season was 8 (by the ‘03 Raiders), so eventually a ticket is going to cash for the Flyboys. With Sam Darnold now set to return, why not this week? This is a ton of points to be getting at home.

It’s not just about how many points the Jets are getting here, though I should point out my own power rankings say anything above 8.5 is a solid value. Buffalo is also in a terrible situation as it will be playing its third game in a 12-day span. This is the second week in a row they are on short rest. Last Monday, they came out sluggish against the Chiefs and ended up losing 26-17. It was the second straight game where they were held to 17 pts or less. While those games were against two of the AFC’s best, I’ll reiterate something I said last week & that’s I am not as high on the Bills as others seem to be. 

The Bills have a negative scoring differential on the year (-12). In addition to Darnold’s likely return, the Jets are expected to be healthy at WR for the 1st time all season. Rookie Denzel Mims is set to make his debut. He and Breshad Perriman form a pretty decent duo for Darnold to throw to. For the record, if for some reason Darnold does NOT take the field, this play still stands. Getting back to the situation for Buffalo, not only are they on short rest for a second straight week, they’ve got the Patriots on deck. The Jets have held four of six opponents below 250 yds passing and Bills QB Allen has looked suspect in the L2 games. 8* NY Jets

9* Under Panthers/Saints (1:00 ET): Coming out of a bye is usually considered a luxury, but not if you’re NOT healthy. New Orleans will be without both their starting WRs this week as Michael Thomas is still injured and Emmanuel Sanders tested positive for COVID. This is a Saints team that’s trailed by double digits each of its last two games, both of which were against losing teams (Detroit, Chargers). Whether the injuries cost them a win this week remains up for debate, but I do think that for the 1st time this season we’re about to see a Saints’ game stay Under the total.

Carolina comes in at 3-3, which is better than most would have expected. They were favorites for the first time last week, but lost 23-16 to Chicago and really it wasn’t that close as they got their only TD in the 4th quarter. They were held to a season-low 303 total yards and for the 4th time this season were held to 23 points or fewer. On the bright side, the Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving, holding the L4 opponents to an average of just 19 PPG. They gave up only 261 total yards to the Bears last week, which was the second time in three weeks they allowed less than 300.

I don’t think the Panthers are going to move the ball on the ground very effectively in this game as the Saints defense remains very stout against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. Remember Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey for the season, which is a very big deal! New Orleans knows Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater well (he played for them LY) and hopefully Bridgewater can provide insight to his own defense on how to stop Drew Brees & the NO offense. These NFC South rivals do have a history of going Over against one another, but this could close as the highest O/U line for one of their games since 2016. The only other time since then we’ve seen a total of 50+, it ended up being a 12-9 final. 9* Under Panthers/Saints

10* Arizona (8:25 ET): I absolutely love this play and the fact it’s been moved into the Sunday night spot makes it all the more enticing. I am nowhere near as high on the Seahawks as the market seems to be, despite Russell Wilson and company being 5-0 straight up. They have the worst defense in the league, at least in terms of yards per game allowed and they are giving up 35 more YPG passing than the next worst team. That Arizona is on a short week here while Seattle is off a bye is offset by the fact the home team is catching points. My own power rankings actually say they should be the favorite this week! Take the points. 

The Cardinals made short work of Dallas Monday night, winning that game 38-10 thanks to four Cowboys turnovers. It won’t be that easy this week, but Arizona is up for the challenge. They are 4-2 SU despite having played just two home games and one of their losses (a surprise to Detroit) was by a field goal. This will be the 1st time Arizona is getting points since their Week 1 upset of the 49ers. Though they’ve obviously seen some weak offenses to this point, the fact they are allowing just 18.7 PPG is still impressive. In fact, only Baltimore is allowing fewer points per game! 

As good as Wilson & the Seattle offense has looked, the team is being outgained on a per game basis. They have been outgained in all but one game, a 31-23 win over Miami where they were very lucky that the Dolphins kept settling for field goals. Two weeks ago against Minnesota (also on SNF), the Seahawks were outgained 449-314 and kept scoreless in the 1H by a pretty suspect defense. Arizona’s Kyler Murray has five games this season with at least one passing and one rushing TD. The Cardinals have gone 5-1-1 ATS the L7 meetings with Seattle and this is their best team during that timespan. 10* Arizona

9* Under Bucs/Raiders (4:05 ET): This was originally supposed to be the Sunday Night game, but had to be moved due to COVID-19 concerns with the Raiders. In a terrible turn of events, Las Vegas may be without its ENTIRE starting offensive line this week! That’s a horrible situation no matter the opponent, but this week the Silver and Black happen to be facing a defense that is giving up a league-low 282 YPG and is second in sacks with 22. Do not expect the Raiders to do much scoring in this one. Take the Under.

Every Raiders’ game this season has gone Over this season (your result vs. Buffalo could vary) and the Over is 7-0-1 the L8 meetings w/ the Bucs, including that Super Bowl debacle when Jon Gruden was coaching AGAINST them. But given the situation that Las Vegas is in here, you certainly expect those trends to be bucked this week. The Raiders like to run the ball, but behind a makeshift O-line that’s going against the top run defense in the league, they aren’t about to have much success doing so. 

Tampa Bay was a HUGE winner for us last Sunday (Game of the Month) as they crushed the Packers 38-10. It was the fourth time in the last five games they held the opponent to 20 points or less. If they can keep Aaron Rodgers to just 107 yards passing, imagine the nightmare Derek Carr is in for as he tries to throw the ball behind a bunch of backups. The Bucs won’t score that many points this week, simply because they won’t have to. Last week, they had a pick-six and a one-play TD drive after another INT, so 38 pts was misleading. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in the league. 9* Under Bucs/Raiders

8* Tottenham (4:00 ET): The Hotspurs find themselves in the middle of the Premier League table right now, but actually own the best goal differential (+7, tied w/ Aston Villa). They are off a very shocking draw with West Ham last week where they blew a 3-0 lead, conceding all three goals in the final 10 minutes. I look for them to bounce back this week though and get the full three (points) at the expense of Burnley, who is down in the relegation zone and simply lacks the firepower to compete with Tottenham here. 

Burnley are one of four EPL sides currently without a win this campaign. They’ve played just four times, but have lost three and drawn one. That one draw was last week, against fellow winless club West Brom, and was of the scoreless variety. Burnley has scored just three times in four games, two of those goals coming in a 4-2 loss to Leicester City. Individual game efforts have not been impressive for a side that has finished 10th or lower three of the last four years. Compared to past seasons, this outfit seems weaker. 

Remember that before the Int’l Break, Tottenham crushed Man U 6-1. They are tied for most goals scored in the EPL this season (15) and that’s despite playing one fewer game than virtually everyone else. They’ve actually already bounced back somewhat from last week’s heartbreak, winning their Europa League opener 3-0 over LASK Linz. But their standing domestically is still of greater importance and I expect a very sharp performance Monday afternoon. 8* Tottenham

10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): Chicago is a very fraudulent 5-1 SU right now as they’ve twice come back from 17+ pt deficits to win in the 2nd half. All five wins have been by 7 pts or less. They were badly outgained two weeks ago on Thursday night by Tampa Bay, yet still managed to win 20-19. They averaged only 4.1 yards per play in that game. So far, the Bears have been outgained on both a per game and per play basis this season. In the four games they didn’t rally back from 17+ down, they have failed to score more than 23 points. This is a team I want to fade.

Meanwhile, the Rams are 5-1 ATS off their L6 SU losses. They lost to 49ers as a road favorite on SNF last week, a spot where I actually played against them. But they are 4-1 ATS L5 as a home favorite. Unlike the Bears, LA is outgaining teams on a per game and per play basis. Even though Chicago is carried by its defense, the Rams are giving up fewer yards and points per game. 

Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have pulled off five outright upsets in the first seven weeks of the season, which is what Chicago is vying to do here. The Bears have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games this year. Even though they've won two straight, I don't feel that QB Nick Foles has necessarily been any kind of improvement compared to Mitch Trubisky. 10* LA Rams