8* Orlando (7:05 ET): A young Magic team that doesn’t have a single starter over the age of 23 has gotten off to an 0-2 start. Both losses have been blowouts. First, they fell by 26 to the Spurs. Then it was by 25 to the team they’ll face again Sunday, the Knicks. Against San Antonio, Orlando was at least competitive for most of the first half. The same cannot be said for Friday’s game with the Knicks where many fans in their own building were cheering for the road team. But I expect this one to be closer. Take the points. 

New York set a team record for most made threes in a game with 24 on Friday. That is not going to be replicated. The Knicks went to double overtime in their first game, winning a wild one, 138-134 over Boston. So they are 2-0 for the first time since 2012. Do I expect them to win this game? Yes. But covering a double digit spread is a different matter. The line closed at -8 for Friday’s game with the Magic. 

Now the linesmakers obviously had to account for the change in home court advantage as well as the final margin from Friday. But this looks like a classic overreaction. Orlando isn’t going to have a great year, but they will be desperate to avoid a third straight double digit loss to open the season. The Knicks are a team I expect to regress a bit this year as they can’t count on holding opponents to the lowest 3PT FG% in the league again like they did last season. 8* Orlando

8* Under Colts/49ers (8:20 ET): I’d like to think that, coming off a bye, San Francisco will be ready to roll here. But this team has not been good as a favorite under HC Kyle Shanahan, going just 8-19-2 ATS including 2-7 SU the last nine times they’ve been laying three points or more. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his return, there are still a litany of injuries this team is dealing with. It’s not like Garoppolo was all that effective before getting injured anyway. He completed only 62% of his passes the L2 starts with two interceptions. 

Meanwhile, it was an 0-3 start for Indianapolis this season and things were looking bleak. But the Colts have turned it around a bit by winning two of the last three games and going 3-0 ATS. Honestly, they probably feel like they should also be 3-0 SU over that stretch as they blew a big lead against Baltimore on MNF and lost that one in OT. Thanks to playing the Texans last week, it was an easy bounce back and the defense did its job, holding Houston to only three points. 

The last time the 49ers beat the Colts was 2001. Obviously, you can count and know that was 20 years ago. But considering that was the game that inspired Jim Mora’s infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Who knows if either of these teams can get back in the playoff race in 2021. But what I do know is that Sunday night should be a low-scoring game. 8* Under Colts/49ers

10* Atletico Madrid (3:00 ET): On the same matchday as “El Clasico” (Real Madrid vs. Barcelona) comes my top La Liga bet for the month. It too involves a pair of sides near the top of the table. Real Sociedad is in fact your surprise table leaders right now with 20 points. However, it should be pointed out that Sociedad has played one more match than most of the teams currently chasing. That included LY’s La Liga champs, Atletico Madrid, who can pull level with a win here. I don’t think anyone really believes that Sociedad is the top team in the Spanish top flight. It is their time to drop a match. 

Now, you’re probably thinking to yourself “what about Thursday?” About Thursday, I went with Sociedad in the Europa League fixture against Sturm Graz. They won 1-0, extending their unbeaten run across all competitions to 11 straight. But Sturm Graz is obviously not the same caliber of opponent that Atletico is. Furthermore, Sociedad is not winning by very large margins. They’ve failed to score more than once each of their five competitions. They will have to rely on their defense Sunday, but I don’t think Sociedad will score here. 

Atletico’s return to European football midweek was not as successful as Sociedad’s. Last year’s La Liga champs lost their Champions League fixture to Liverpool 3-2. It was a frustrating defeat as Atletico had battled back from an early 0-2 hold to draw even. But then Antonie Griezmann was sent off with a red card and Liverpool took the full three points with a penalty in the 78th minute. But Atletico remains unbeaten at home in domestic action this season. They actually haven’t played a La Liga match since beating Barca 2-0 on October 2nd. So they are better rested. They should be hungrier and move to the top of the table (on goal differential) after this one. 10* Atletico Madrid

10* Over Bears/Bucs (4:25 ET): If Justin Fields thought going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was tough, wait until he gets a hold of Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. This should be Fields' toughest matchup as a pro. I just can’t see the Bears being able to trade points with the Bucs. But I do think they can score enough to help send this one Over the total. The Bears’ last five games have all gone Under. A matchup with a top three scoring offense should change that. Take the Over. 

The Bucs have not faced a good offense since suffering their only loss, 34-24 to the Rams. Since that loss, they’ve beaten New England, Miami and Philadelphia. Yet only that New England game, which was a highly emotional affair (Brady’s return to Foxboro), saw less than 50 total points scored. Other than at New England, Tampa Bay games have averaged more than 60 PPG this season! All three of their home games this season have gone Over. 

Brady will not have to worry about one of Chicago’s top pass rushers (Robert Quinn) as he is on the COVID list. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in every home game so far and twice gone over 40. Obviously, I’m expecting a lot of points from them today. But I also expect their defense to give up a surprising number of yards in the passing game to Fields. Before going up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last Thursday, the Bucs had allowed at least 262 yards passing to every opponent. If the Bears get to 20, which they should, then this is an easy Over. 10* Over Bears/Bucs

8* Washington (1:00 ET): Seemingly all is well in Green Bay right now as the Packers are riding high on a five-game win streak. They’ve covered the spread in every win as well. But despite the 5-1 SU record, they have an unimpressive point differential of only +8. For comparison sake, all other NFC teams that are 5-1 SU (or better) have a YTD point differential of at least +51. So the Packers are really trailing the other division leaders in that regard. Now, the reason for the Packers’ less than impressive point differential, is the 38-3 beatdown they were handed in Week 1 by the Saints. But I feel this is worth mentioning. Two of the wins have been by a FG or less. 

Washington, like Green Bay, was a division winner last season. But unlike the Pack, it doesn’t seem like the Football Team is destined to repeat. They are 2-4 SU overall with those two wins coming by a combined five points over the Giants and Falcons. Ron Rivera’s team is also tied for the worst ATS mark in the league at 1-5. The only game they covered was the miracle comeback in Atlanta. But despite their defense not performing as well as expected thus far, I view this as a great “buy low” spot on Washington. This is a team that’s led in every game this season but one (at Buffalo). 

Green Bay’s defense has allowed a TD every time an opposing offense has entered the red zone this season. That’s bad. This has all the makings of a “trap game” for the Packers, who know that they have a “short week” coming up before a visit to undefeated Arizona on Thursday. Give credit to the Pack for the five-game win streak. It’s not easy to win five straight in this league. But they haven’t really beaten any great teams to this point. It’s even harder to win SIX straight, let alone cover six in a row, so I’m grabbing the points in this one. 8* Washington

9* Over Bengals/Ravens (1:00 ET): I can understand why the “sharp money” seems to like the Under in this matchup. It’s a divisional game, which means the teams are familiar with one another. Also a Cincinnati team that is 5-0 Under its last five games has been held to just 19 points in its last three meetings with Baltimore. However, this is a much better Bengals team in 2021. They come in at 4-2 SU and just put up a season-high 34 points last. While that was against the lowly Lions, there’s been only one game all year when Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. I’m on the Over. 

The Ravens scored 34 points last week in what was the most impressive wins I’ve seen from anybody this NFL season. They crushed the red-hot Chargers, holding Justin Herbert to just six points. But this Baltimore defense has been kind of “Jekyll and Hyde.” While there have been three times they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less (Lions, Broncos, Chargers), there have also been three times they’ve given up 25+ points (Raiders, Chiefs, Colts). Where there’s no mystery is on the offensive side of the ball at home. In three home games, the Ravens have averaged 33.7 PPG and topped 30 every time. 

I already mentioned how the previous three meetings between these teams have seen the Bengals not score many points. The same cannot be said about the Ravens. They’ve averaged 38 PPG in those three matchups! Here at home (see above), I have full confidence in them scoring a bunch of points on Sunday. Cincinnati should be able to stick with them though as the Ravens’ defense is allowing 277 yards passing per game. Joe Burrow is a lot better now than when he faced the Ravens as a rookie. He has Ja'Marr Chase to throw to as well. 9* Over Bengals/Ravens