10* Atletico Madrid (3:30 ET): I am shocked to see the ML this low as Atletico Madrid may be the best team in all of Europe right now. The table leaders in La Liga have taken 41 points from their 16 matches thus far and what has to be “scary” for the rest of the field is the fact Atletico has played two (or in some instances THREE) fewer matches than everyone else. Having already won five straight in Spain’s top flight, they have a real shot at opening up a big lead by the halfway point of the season. I expect them to continue rolling on Thursday. 

It’s not as if today’s opponent (Eibar) is anything special. This side is only two points clear of the relegation zone and they have taken some embarrassing defeats recently, namely a 3-1 exit from the Copa del Rey over the weekend at the hands of Navalcarnero, a lower-level side. It’s become almost comical how few goals Eibar has scored in La Liga play with only 15 to speak of in their 18 matches. This seems like an especially poor time to be taking on the table leaders, who have conceded only SIX times all season! 

Eibar has just one win in its last six La Liga matches, that coming nearly three weeks ago against Granada. The fact they conceded eight goals in the three matches since is a troubling sign, especially when you consider two of the sides they faced are from a lower division. While it’s now been more than a month (five fixtures) since Atletico scored more than two goals in a match, Eibar’s recent form suggests that streak could be broken here. I see no reason why Atletico shouldn’t roll on Thursday as they look to continue to set the pace in La Liga. 10* Atletico Madrid

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): Memphis played at Tulsa on Sunday and I felt that line was way off. Turns out that I was incorrect in that assessment as the Tigers (who closed -1.5) lost by a single point, 57-56, to fall to 1-9 ATS on the season and 6-5 straight up. It’s certainly been an underwhelming season thus far for Anfernee Hardaway’s team and they’ve had three games postponed since December 30th, meaning the loss to Tulsa is the only time they’ve played this month. But there’s still time to “turn things around” and I believe it happens tonight at home vs. Wichita State. 

Wichita State’s recent form is a lot better than Memphis’ as the Shockers have won seven of eight and covered the last four. They’d had no issues with cancellations until Sunday when they were supposed to travel to SMU. I wonder if that breaks the “momentum.” Yes, I’m fully aware that in their last game the “Wheat Shockers” destroyed Tulsa 72-53, but that was at home. They’ve played just four “true” road games and while they’re 3-1 SU, the record could be worse considering all four games were decided by five points or less.

Memphis has been favored in every game this season, which should tell you something. This is a talented team with five double digit scorers and they play excellent defense, giving up only 58.0 PPG here at home. Wichita State has actually covered six in a row going back to 12/15 as two of their last eight games came against non-DI foes. Other than last time out (vs. Tulsa), they don’t have a dominant conference win to speak of, so I see the respective trends reversing tonight as the home team gets back on track. 8* Memphis

10* Eastern Illinois (8:00 ET): Belmont has ruled the Ohio Valley Conference this season with a perfect 8-0 SU record and their only loss of 2020-21 came all the way back on December 5th to Samford. But it is worth noting that one loss did come here at home, a game where the Bruins were 17.5-point favorites. You have to think eventually this team is going to drop an OVC game and while it may not be tonight, the number the Bruins are laying seems quite large against an Eastern Illinois team that’s better than its record. 

Hopefully, Eastern Illinois gets its leading scorer (Josiah Wallace) back from a hamstring injury for tonight’s game. Wallace is second in the OVC in scoring (17.5 PPG) and the team has gone winless since he got hurt. The injury occurred 1/9 vs. Austin Peay, a game which the Panthers ended up losing at the buzzer, 74-71. After shockingly falling at home to Morehead State as seven-point favorites (87-61!), Tony Romo’s alma mater suffered another crushing defeat on Saturday as they fell in OT to Eastern Kentucky.

After three straight losses at home, it’s fair to say Eastern Illinois has underachieved. While the Wallace injury has a lot to do with that, this is a team that has plenty of senior talent and should be better than 3-10 ATS. I look for them to come out fired up here against a team they haven’t beaten since 2015. Belmont just gave up 91 points (no overtime) to Jacksonville State in its last game. Were Wallace to play, that would be a HUGE plus, but I’m taking the points regardless here as EIU should keep it close throughout. 10* Eastern Illinois

10* New Orleans (10:05 ET): Second meeting in the last three days for these teams. The Jazz took the first, 118-102 here at home on Wednesday night, as they shot well from three-point range (21 of 47) while the Pelicans did not (6 of 26). That 45-point difference from behind the arc more than accounted for the final score. Utah has looked quite good of late as they are on a six-game SU and ATS win streak, but you should not count out New Orleans in this spot as they are desperate for a win and getting a decent amount of points. 

With just one victory in their last seven games, New Orleans really needs to “get going.” That one victory came against defensively inept Sacramento on Sunday and other than that, the offense really hasn’t “been there” for Zion Williamson and company. The Jazz have been outstanding defensively during the win streak, but again that can change in an instant and I certainly don’t see the home team being as prolific offensively as they were Wednesday, especially from “downtown.” 

Williamson is coming off B2B 30+ point games for the first time in his career. Wednesday night’s contest was largely decided in the third quarter where the Jazz outscored the Pelicans by 16 points, which was the exact final margin for the game. I’m impressed with Utah’s fondness for the 3-point shot, but that can also lead to an “off-night,” which you have to think is coming. The team’s hot start really shouldn’t be that big of a surprise when you consider they’ve gone off as the favorite in 12 of 14 games. Take the points in this one. 10* New Orleans

8* Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): These Sun Belt foes met on three different occasions in the 2019 calendar year and each time the underdog emerged victorious. Coastal Carolina won 88-75 as a 5-point road dog in January of that year while Troy then returned the favor two months later with a 74-67 upset as 11-point pups. The first meeting of last season saw Troy win 77-59 as a 4.5-point dog. But then a “sense of normalcy” was restored in the second meeting as Coastal Carolina breezed to a 90-60 win and cover as nine-point chalk. That’s the way I think this one is going to go tonight. 

Troy comes in on a three-game losing streak, every loss coming on the road. They were swept at Georgia Southern last weekend, losing 67-64 and 63-56. Offense has been a major problem this season for the Trojans as they’ve failed to score 70 in 9 of their last 10 games vs. D-I opponents. (The exception being a 79-71 home win over Samford). For the season, they are averaging only 61.2 PPG and that number dips to an ugly 56.8 when away from home. Three-point shooting (24.5%) has been abysmal. This team is also only 13-27 ATS its L40 Sun Belt games.

Coastal Carolina is off a 71-68 loss to Georgia State, the only game they played last weekend. They did cover the spread though as seven-point road underdogs. Troy’s lack of offensive punch becomes a real problem when you consider the Chanticleers come in averaging a very healthy 87.1 PPG and that number jumps to 90.0 here in Conway. Granted, that’s somewhat inflated by wins over non-DI opponents, but still the team is shooting 50% from the field at home this season, including 40.6% from three-point range. Way too much firepower from the favorite in this one as CC looks to get back to the top of the conference. 8* Coastal Carolina