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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2017
Temple vs Clemson
Clemson
PK -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Clemson (9:30 ET): Perhaps taking a cue from the school's football team, Clemson basketball is already 4-0 this year w/ three of the wins coming by double digits. The one exception was an 81-76 win over Ohio on Thursday, but they led that game by as many as 15 pts before letting the Bobcats in through the "back door." The Tigers are averaging 82.7 PPG thus far, an impressive number. Tonight finds them as a slight favorite against a Temple team that has played only twice (both wins) and off a minor upset of Auburn on Friday. The Owls' season didn't even begin until Thursday when Clemson had already played twice by that point. I think the additional games played for the Tigers is a big edge here and I'll take them here in Charleston at a great price.

This is the third time that Clemson has reached the Final Game of the Charleston Classic. It's their first time participating in the event since 2013-14, which - not coincidentally marked the last time they started a season at 4-0 SU better. This particular edition of the Tigers is not shy about hoisting three-pointers (45 attempts last two games) and was 10 of 28 from behind the arc in Friday's 78-59 win against overmatched Hofstra. While they have only two starters back from LY, the starting five accounted for 68 of the team's 78 points. Defensively, it was a strong effort as they held the Pride to only 44% shooting from the floor. This event taking place in Charleston is obviously a huge edge for Clemson. 

Temple has now covered 12 of its last 13 November games following a 2-0 ATS start this year. It was a "tale of two halves" against Auburn on Friday as they shot only 33.3% in the first  (led by one at the break), but then 67.9% in the second and pulled away for the 88-74 win as a 2.5-pt dog. The team's first game was against Old Dominion and they won there 76-65 as a short favorite. Interestingly, it was the complete opposite of the Auburn game as they shot 51% in the first half, but only 25% in the second. So they've yet to really play a good game for 40 minutes. This will be the Owls' toughest test to date and it comes at an event where Clemson is 7-1 SU all-time, including a win over Temple in the 2008 Final! The Tigers have held three of their four opponents under 70 pts and that's huge because Temple is just 1-14 SU the L15 times it has not gone over 70 pts. 10* Clemson

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Islanders vs Hurricanes
OVER 5½ -130 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Over Islanders/Hurricanes (5:05 ET): The Isles really burned me yday, upsetting the Lightning in an impressive 5-3 victory. Obviously, that's the type of game I'm hoping for today (regardless of who wins!) as I take the Over. As mentioned in yday's analysis, the Isles came into yday ranked #3 in the league in goals per game and are now a lot closer to being #2 after beating Tampa Bay five times on Saturday. But they remain weak in goal (23rd in goals allowed), no matter if it's Thomas Greiss (.898 save percentage on the road) or Jaroslav Halak (.898 overall) starting. Five times in the last six games, either they or the opponents has scored five times themselves. Furthermore, 11 of their previous 13 games have seen seven or more TOTAL goals scored. Take the Over.

Today's opponent, Carolina, is one that NY just faced on Thursday. They beat them, in Brooklyn, 6-4. The 'Canes followed that up by winning last night, 3-1 in Buffalo, but still have issues - namely a 30th ranked power play. That said, they have picked up at least a point in six of their last seven games. The exception was the loss to the Islanders. That game saw NY score three times in the third period, though by that point the game had already sailed Over. Carolina's last three games have all gone Over the total while the Islanders are 8-2 Over their L10 games. 

Similar to the Isles, Carolina has had no issue scoring of late. They're currently on a streak of five consecutive games w/ three or more goals. They are averaging a ton of shots on goal too, 35.6 per game to be exact, which ranks #2 in the league right now. If you're a believer in shot differential being an important metric, then the Hurricanes are potentially a team worth keeping an eye on as their +6.4 shot per game differential ranks #1 in the entire league! They are 9-3 Over in revenge situations. Their goaltending situation is slightly better than that of the Islanders, however, Scott Darling's .905 save percentage for the year is hardly impressive. 10* Over Islanders/Hurricanes

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 19, 2017
Bulls vs Suns
Suns
-3 -103 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): For the Suns to be favored, you have to know that the opponent is weak and sure enough, in comes Chicago on Sunday. This is not exactly the "marquee matchup" on the NBA slate for Sunday as Phoenix comes in at 6-11 SU (but are being outscored by 9.0 PPG) while Chicago is 3-10 SU (-9.5 PPG). Surprisingly, both are off wins here. The Bulls upset Charlotte on Friday, 123-120 as 6.5-point underdogs, snapping a five-game losing skid. Meanwhile, that same night saw the Suns gain a measure of revenge against the Lakers (who beat them earlier in the week) as they prevailed 122-113 as 7.5-pt road dogs. You could make a case that Phoenix is lucky to have six wins, but the bottom line is this is one of the rare times they come in as the better team. Lay the short number at home.

It was a 40-point fourth quarter for Chicago against Charlotte on Friday that enabled them to get the victory. To call that kind of scoring outburst "rare" from this team would be putting it mildly. The previous game saw them score only 79 points total, including just SEVEN in the first quarter. This is one of only three teams in the league NOT to be averaging 100 PPG as they are at 94.9 PPG, which ranks 29th (only ahead of Sacramento). They are also 29th in efficiency as well, joining the Mavs, Lakers and Kings as the only teams not to be averaging one point per possession. It's not like they're very good defensively either as they rank 20th in efficiency there. On the road this season, they are 1-6 straight up and being outscored by 9.3 points per game. They have not scored 100+ pts in B2B games at any point this season.

Phoenix has actually scored 112 or more points in four of its last five games! Now, defensively, this team leaves a lot to be desired. But as discussed earlier, they don't have a lot to worry about here checking the Bulls. One thing that will be interesting to note during the course of this game is the pace. Phoenix is tied for the fastest pace in the league while Chicago plays at the fourth slowest. If the Suns can "speed the game up," then it's advantage them. The Bulls have lost all five games against the Western Conference this year, by an average of 20 points per game. It's pretty rare that you'll get to go against them laying this few points. Do it! 10* Phoenix

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Eagles vs Cowboys
Cowboys
+3½ -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Dallas (8:30 ET): The Cowboys' first game w/o Ezekiel Elliott went pretty much as poorly as possible, but as most intelligent observers were quick to note, that had as much to do w/ the team being w/ OL Tyron Smith and not just their star running back. It ended up being a 27-7 loss to a desperate Atlanta team on the road and now Dallas is on the "outside looking in" for what is shaping up to be a very tough NFC playoff picture. This week's opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, is the envy of every team right now as they have the best record in the league (8-1 SU) coming out of their bye. They haven't loss since Week 2 (Chiefs) and have covered six in a row, making them the dreaded "public side" in primetime here. I sided with a similar "square bet" last Sunday night (New England), but not here as the Cowboys at least have a good QB, something you could NOT say LW for the Broncos. Take the points.

Dallas is entering a critical stretch here, one that could largely determine the fate of their season and they'll be w/o Elliott for five more games. The next three, while all at home, come in a 12-day span as the next two weeks they'll be playing on a Thursday (Thanksgiving included obviously). There's a chance they could still be favored the next two weeks. But the value is on taking them this week, off the blowout loss, against the high-flying Eagles. Perhaps the Cowboys' stock will not be lower at any point the rest of this season than it is right now. HC Jason Garrett has done some of his finest work as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts, going 9-4 ATS in that role w/ five outright wins.

Like I said, Philly is "flying high" right now, but perhaps they come out a little "rusty" after the bye week? They did hang an impressive 51 points on Denver's defense in their last game, but Wentz completed only 15 pass attempts in that game. Granted, four were for touchdowns, but it still seems highly unlikely that he'll match that kind of efficiency at any other point this season. Looking at the Eagles' schedule thus far, it's hardly been a gauntlet. They did play (and lose to) the Chiefs, but other than them and possibly (probably?) Carolina, I don't see many potential playoff teams on that list. Dallas, of course, might not find itself in the playoffs thanks to the Elliott suspension. But I don't think they deserve to be this decided of a home dog in this critical NFC East matchup. Philadelphia has actually not been a road favorite of more than a field goal in over three seasons. They actually closed as a dog at LA (Chargers) earlier in the year when they won by only two points. 8* Dallas

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Bills vs Chargers
Bills
+4½ -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Finally, it appears as if we know who the starting QB's will be in this Week 11 matchup - for both teams. Buffalo HC Sean McDermott has elected to make the somewhat "controversial" decision to bench Tyrod Taylor in favor of the unproven Nathan Peterman. What makes the move a "controversial" one is that the Bills - in most people's eyes - have overachieved at 5-4 SU. But the bottom line is they were 5-2 before ugly losses to the Jets and Saints and those precipitated the change. Something my regulars will note is that I've actually been a buyer on the Bills from the start, in spite of all the moves that make it seem they're not trying to be successful in 2017. I'm holding a ticket on them Over 6.5 wins and would not have expected that could be a winner so soon on the season (still need two). I will again "go against the grain" with them here. 

The Chargers also are dealing with their own QB situation this week. Philip Rivers found himself in the concussion protocol this week and is currently listed as questionable. HC Anthony Lynn stated on Friday that Rivers "looked fine," but he remains uncleared as of press time. Whether or not Rivers plays here will be irrelevant to the selection. The bottom line is that I would not want to lay points w/ the Lightning Bolts right now. If Rivers isn't able to play, it would be a significant downgrade to Kellen Clemens. I've tried and tried to keep believing in this LA team, but at 3-6 SU, they are nearing the point of irrelevancy. Last week marked the latest in the long line of inept losses as they fell to Jacksonville 20-17 (in overtime) despite intercepting Jags' QB Blake Bortles TWICE in the final three minutes of regulation! (You can't make this stuff). Another point I need to make is that the Chargers have the worst homefield "advantage" in the league. They are just 1-3 SU/ATS in their temporary (30,000 capacity) stadium. 

This selection also boils down to the fact that you can't trust the Chargers laying points. They're just 4-10 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ NINE outright losses! This year, they've lost outright both times they've been installed as the chalk - to Miami and to Philadelphia (how bad does that line look in retrospect?). Considering almost all of their games end up being close, why would you want to back them as favorites. Six of their nine games this season have been decided by five points or less, four of those losses. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-21 SU in games decided by a TD or less. With Peterman under center, look for the Bills to run the ball a lot here, which is an effective strategy considering the Chargers own the league's second worst run defense. Rivers or not, don't look for the Bills' defense to be tested much in this game. Los Angeles comes in averaging just 18.6 points per game and has not topped 21 in the last month. Again, not a team I'd want to lay points with right now. I'll put my trust in McDermott in this spot. 8* Buffalo

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Ravens vs Packers
OVER 37½ -115 Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Over Ravens/Packers (1:00 ET): Green Bay treated me last week as I was sure to note the Chicago team they were playing had not been favored in almost a year and not over the Pack dating back to 2008! Sure enough, despite the absence of Aaron Rodgers, GB pulled the "upset," winning 23-16 at Soldier Field. Now they're back at Lambeau to host a Ravens team fresh off its bye. Baltimore is only 4-5 SU in what has been an "up and down" season thus, but they're more than just alive in what is shaping up to be a top-heavy AFC where there's probably going to be at least one pretty ugly playoff entrant (maybe them?). So much of the focus in Baltimore has been on an offense which ranks 30th in the league, but they've faced a pretty impressive slate of defenses thus far and the Over is still 5-0 their last five games. Take the Over here. 

Four times this season, the Ravens have had to faced a top 10 defense (Jags, Steelers, Bears and Vikings). They've lost all four games and averaged only 14 PPG. But they're 4-1 SU otherwise and averaged 26.8 points in those games. The Green Bay defense is certainly nothing special, ranking 18th overall. So I look for more of the "good" Baltimore offense this Sunday. Also, do not discount the likelihood of a defensive score (or two!) here, facing an inexperienced QB like Hundley. Two weeks ago against Miami (who was starting Matt Moore), the Ravens returned two interceptions for touchdowns. In a game against Chicago earlier in the year, they got two special teams TDs. Four of the last five games, this team has put at least 20 points on the board.

The Packers had not topped 17 pts since Hundley took over for Rodgers, until last week. Now, off a win, I wouldn't be surprised if the QB started playing with more confidence. Though its unlikely they'll make the playoffs w/o Rodgers (NFC is deeper than the AFC), the Pack aren't finished yet. Their last two games have gone Over as have five of the previous seven. Defensively, they've allowed at least 239 yards passing each of the last five games. Last week, they gave up 297 to Mitchell Trubisky, which was 133 more than the rookie's previous career high. So this could be a big game for Flacco. Baltimore has not been a healthy team this year, but off the bye, they're as healthy as they've been at any point in 2017. This is a low O/U line, the likes of which they've been topping of late. For Green Bay, it's the lowest of the season to date. 8* Over Ravens/Packers

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Redskins vs Saints
Redskins
+9 -123 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Washington (1:00 ET): Right now, every NFC division is being led by a "surprise" team, whose bandwagons are filling up rapidly. None more so than the Saints, who have won and covered seven straight games (after an 0-2 start), including a 47-10 massacre of the Bills up in Buffalo last week. A team that has leaned almost exclusively on QB Drew Brees and the passing game for a decade has undergone a somewhat radical transformation in 2017. There's now both a running game and some defense being played in the Big Easy and those are the primary reasons New Orleans is leading the NFC South right now. But before we go praising them too much, let's be sure to note the slate of opposing offenses they've faced during this run of theirs has hardly been comprised of world-beaters. Therefore, I see some value here on Washington, who has a solid offense. Take the points.

During this seven-game run, the Saints have beaten Cam Newton and Carolina (34-13) as well as Matt Stafford and Detroit (52-38). But here are the other five QB's they've gotten to face: Jay Cutler (MIA = worst offense in NFL), Brett Hundley (1st career start), Mitchell Trubisky (rookie), Ryan Fitzpatrick (backup for inj Jameis Winston) and Tyrod Taylor (now benched). Say what you will about Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, but he's no worse than the third best QB the Saints will have seen over the last two months. Looking at Washington's recent schedule, they've had to face Philadelphia, Dallas (w/ Ezekiel Elliott), Seattle and Minnesota. Therefore, I'm not really surprised that they come into this game only having won one of their last four games. Not many teams would go .500 against that gauntlet.

It also appears as if the Redskins are getting healthier. Injuries along the offensive line coincided with the strength in schedule increasing, which is a "double whammy." But that unit is now a bit healthier. Cousins and the passing game rank third in the league in attempts of 20+ yards downfield, so the Saints secondary should get a real test this week. Also, for as much as the NO defense is being lauded right now, they still only rank 27th against the run. The Saints have twice covered TD spreads, but those games were against Chicago and Tampa Bay, teams that are inferior compared to Washington. Truthfully, New Orleans' 7-2 SU record shouldn't be that surprising considering they've been favored six of the last seven games. Meanwhile, Washington has been favored only ONCE all season as they've taken on the league's most difficult schedule to this points. Saints' stock could not possibly be higher right now, so I view this as an appropriate time to fade. 10* Washington

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