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Alex Smart Sports- College Football Early Steam - Miami Fl vs Florida

Non Conference instate rivals the Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes open up the 150th College Football anniversary season against each other on August 24. Which side has the ATS edge? Your 100% Guaranteed answer is locked and loaded and ready to make the books pay for taking our scholastic gridiron action. Kick off 7:30 pm et (Steam Action)

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2019
Rangers vs Mariners
UNDER 10 -115 Tie
Play Type: Premium

 Sampson the Rangers starter today 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA versus the Mariners in 2019, and according to my power rankings matches up well vs the Mariners inconsistent offence. Meanwhile, Mariners starter Gonzales allowed three runs or less in six straight starts before he was reached for six runs in six frames of a loss at Oakland on Tuesday, but Im betting he bounces back today and gets back to his usual consistent form.

Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games. Under is 13-3 in Rangers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 Monday games.Under is 12-4 in Rangers last 16 during game 1 of a series.Under is 19-7 in Rangers last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 14-6-1 in Rangers last 21 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

TEXAS is 17-5 UNDER in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. SEATTLE is 15-5 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in home games in July games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. 

MLB eams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (TEXAS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 45-17 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate!

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2019
A's vs Astros
UNDER 9 -117 Lost
$117.0
Play Type: Premium

Homer Bailey (8-6, 4.69 ERA, 87 SO) was sharp in his A’s debut, allowing just two runs over six innings in a win against the Mariners. The right-hander returns to his home state of Texas for a matchup with the Astros, whom he’s 4-0 against with a 1.46 ERA in eight career starts. Meanwhile, Astros starter Gerrit Cole (10-5, 3.12 ERA, 194 SO)has put himself in the American League Cy Young race, going 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last 10 starts. He has struck out 94 batters in 64 innings in that span. Cole leads the Majors with 194 strikeouts and 13.47 strikeouts per nine innings.

COLE is 24-10 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. COLE is 24-10 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored.  HOUSTON is 23-11 UNDER  when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season for a combined average of 7.3 rpg going on the board.

OAKLAND is 9-1 UNDER in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better this season with a combined average 8.4 rpg scored.OAKLAND is 21-9 UNDER  vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 8 rpg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 8-3 in Athletics last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 13-5 in Athletics last 18 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 5-2 in Athletics last 7 road games.Under is 10-4 in Athletics last 14 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Athletics last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Athletics last 7 games following a loss.

Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 on grass.Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games following a win.Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 vs. American League West.Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 home games.Under is 39-17-2 in Astros last 58 Monday games. Under is 4-1 in Coles last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2019
Yankees vs Twins
Yankees
-114 at 5Dimes
Lost
$114.0
Play Type: Premium

CC Sabathia (5-4, 4.06 ERA, 77 SO) will make his 16th start of the season in the series opener on the road against AL Central-leading Minnesota. He has gone at least six innings in each of his last four outings and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of them and gets my support here tonight in Minnesota. SABATHIA is 22-9 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.211. 

Yankees are 7-0 in Sabathias last 7 road starts vs. Twins.

  Meanwhile, my power ranking suggest his pithing opponent form the Twins is over rated.Martin Perez (8-3, 4.10 ERA, 89 SO) Perez’s results finally caught up to his stellar hard-hit rate and exit velocity allowed Wednesday against the Mets, when he allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits in six frames before the defense and bullpen imploded in a blowout loss.

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.

NY YANKEES are 21-9  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.NY YANKEES are 26-7 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. SABATHIA is 21-8  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record).NY YANKEES are 19-4 against the money line when the total is 10 or higher this season. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jul 23, 2019
Sparks vs Dream
Dream
+2½ -105 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

The Atlanta Dream are a very contrarian side to be on tonight. In my usual contradictory betting bias that the side Im recommending we take tonight in this battle against the visiting Los Angeles Sparks. It must be noted that Los Angeles (10-8) played the last three games with just eight players as Candace Parker (ankle), Alana Beard (hamstring), Alexis Jones (knee) and Maria Vadeeva (knee) are all hurt and Riquna Williams is currently suspended and with the all star break coming up Im doubting these players will be rushed back to the court. Los Angeles barely beat  Atlanta 76-71 in overtime on the road July 14, and Im betting now on tired legs and short handed the Sparks could get upset. 

WNBA  team vs the money line (LOS ANGELES) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 23-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% after 15 or more games are 5-32 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with the Atlanta Dream

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.