New York has been one of the NHL's best defensive teams this season and tonight Im betting they hold down, a Montreal  team that has scored just 15 goals over their last eight games. Note: Islanders Goalie tonight Greiss owned a .959 save percentage, 1.25 goals against average, and a 3-1-0 record over four game earlier this Month. Meanwhile,  the Isles are not exactly offensive juggernauts either, and Im betting they will also struggle to score in a game that will see this combined score stay on the low side of the number.  

NY ISLANDERS are 6-0 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season this season.

 is 11-3 UNDER in home games against good defensive teams - allowing 2.55 or less goals/game over the last 2 seasons.

The last times these teams played last week the Habs lost to the Isles and by a 2-1 count and now have revenge on board. Note:NHL team against the total (MONTREAL) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, off a road win are 280-189 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate !

Play on the UNDER 

It's no secret that Indianas successes and failures on their ability-to play a top tier brand of the hoops.  The Pacers rank 1 in ppg allowed in the NBA 24th and pace and 22nd in offence. Tonight against the explosive Warriors their D, and conservative transitional game Im betting will be on full display. INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.2 ppg. INDIANA is 23-7 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg. 

As the Warriors prepare for the play offs Defence, has become very important as  is evident by  GOLDEN STATE going 8-0 UNDER L/8 in March games this season  and 20-8 UNDER (after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

The Warriors are 1-17 on the UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.

The Pacers are 0-10 L/10 UNDER as a road dog off a loss when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 69-31 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 106-53 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% long term conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

College Insider Tournament - First Round

These teams are trending under on a base line total that does not project properly according to a team system vs system matchup power rankings system that I use. The lines-makers know how the public perceives these types of team Totals trends and plays to public sentiment. 'Ill take a contrarian view based on my own estimations which lean to this Total being eclipsed.

FLA ATLANTIC is 10-2 OVER  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 143.9 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

Thanks to StMarys looking good at the end of their season which culminated with an astonishing upset  of Gonzaga for their conference championship, they are now a trendy pick for public bettors, thus giving us value on the line with the defending NCAA champion Wildcats. Im betting on key offensive cog and big game  star of Villanova Phil Booth to be the catalyst behind them winning tonight and more importantly getting us the cover.  Note: Booth in  the 70th game in his  career against non-Big East opposition  . . .  is 62-7 SU for a  (.899)  win %.Booth has made 16 consecutive free throws in NCAA Tournament competition,  with his only miss coming in his only FT attempt in the 2016 Round-of-64 Game against UNC Asheville. Booth has 13 turnovers in 14 career NCAA Tournament games covering more 319 minutes  of action for an amazing turnover ratio one turnover every 24.5 minutes of playing time. Booth is 5-for-6 (83.3%) from the three-point line in three NCAA Tournament Round-of-64 Games. His team has 12 straight NCAA tourney victories when he plays . One more here today vs a Gaels team that might have to experience an emotional letdown scenario at the worst possible time.

VILLANOVA is 6-0 ATS  in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.VILLANOVA is 17-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons. 

ST MARYS-CA is 1-8 ATS  in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Villanova to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - XL Center - Hartford, CT

St.Marys might of shutdown Gonzaga last time out , for  a huge 60-47 win, but Im betting they wont be able to the same thing to Villanova. Its one thing to play a tough defensive game in their own conference, against a team they were built to compete against,  but limiting this Wildcats group  will be more challenging and Im betting the Gaels will be forced to  have to open up or get completely blown off the floor. I know the Gaels are a trendy pick here by public bettors after the above mentioned upset of Gonzaga, and that their defensive play is a key to this total being this low, but all of that will go out the window, vs a Villanova side that can knock treys down at a 35%+ clip against much stiffer competition in the Big East and that brain bang you with multiple looks. 

VILLANOVA is 11-4 OVER  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 146.1 ppg. VILLANOVA is 13-4 OVER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 154.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Wells Fargo Arena - Des Moines, IA

Bradely is a team that plugs the paint and that trys to  make you beat them shooting 3s. They use a NBA-style philosophy on ball-screen defense that is highly efficient. they play tough and their 1-2-2 zone defence is a nightmare to play against. All I can say is that we have value with kind of team as a underdog vs a public team that has just to high a asking price on them at the moment. With that said, lets take the points.

BRADLEY is 9-1 ATS after allowing 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons and is 30-13 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival . 

Play on Bradley to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

We have all heard about west Texas pride and tonight  Im betting this dog has fight. This Abilene Christian hoops program has only been eligible for this tourney for only two years, and has an  enrollment of about 3,600 making it an optimum small school success story entering the NCAA tournament.The Wildcats finished 27-6 overall with a 14-4 mark in the league and must not be underestimated here vs a young Kentucky team that has alot more pressure on them then their opponents. My projections make the Wildcats -18 favs here this giving us value on a slightly bloated public line. 

Play on Abilene Christian  plus the points 

The Heat Marched into San Antonio and ended the Spurs 9 game home winning streak last time out, and  have shown a propensity to be dangerous in the followup  as they are  12-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. The Heat should also be wide awake after   the Bucks  came back from 20 points at half time last week and win by a 113-98 count and will be in revenge mode and looking . for redemption for that embarrassment ( . Note: MIAMI is 13-3 ATS  in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. I waited around for most of the day looking for +9 to show back up again, but to much sharp money coming in is sinking this number to the 8.5 to 8 range. Still plenty of value here with the Heat in their current form against a Milwaukee Bucks team that will be careful with their super star the Greek Freak (  Giannis Antetokounmpo) is suffering with a nagging ankle injury. 

MIAMI is 22-10 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 12-4 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-22 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 59-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Utah State is explosive offensively  averaging 79.2 points a game, however, playing against the Huskies zone defense, and slow down offense their going to have their hands full. 

WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH ST is 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Washington to cover 

Kansas State can play a top tier of hoops but they will be tested by a UC Irvine team that can put points up in a hurry. In 3 of their L/5 fames thye had outputs of 110, 86, 92 points and could easily force Kansas State out of their comfort zone and into a faster paced game they would like, 

KANSAS ST is 6-0 OVER as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 155.3 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (KANSAS ST) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Friday  are 26-4 OVER L/25 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

 Virginia were upset by Florida State by a  69-59  count in last week's ACC tournament semifinals. Now with a  full week to rest and prepare and very healthy Im betting they come out like their hair is on fire and pound away with all guns blazing, which all by themselves will help this combined score go over the set total. Gardner Webb in turn will do just enough damage to get us to the promised land. Note:GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 OVER  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing a shooting pct defense of 42% or less this season with a combined average of 162.8 ppg scored

. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (GARDNER WEBB) - after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 23-4 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134,1 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (VIRGINIA) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less  turnovers/game, on Friday nights are 38-7 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

UCF finished sixth in the conference in scoring (72.1 points) but were first in field-goal percentage (46.3)  on 75.4 shooting from the floor behind college hoops super star Tacko Fall. I know VCU is a strong defensive side, but UCF can force anyone into a faster paced game then they like because of their ability to consistently convert and hold a lead.  Score and chase is the call here and a combined score that goes over the set total.

Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

UCF is 9-1 OVER  off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.3 ppg. UCF HC Rhoades is 27-9 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (VA COMMONWEALTH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), on Friday nights are 32-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

Houston is in a nasty mood  entering this tournament after suffering a letdown and subsequent upset loss to Cincinnati in the AAC title game this past Sunday. I now expect them to come in here and lay down a beating on Georgia State for their 24th win and 26 games outside of their own conference.HOUSTON is 12-4 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots this season.HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. HC Sampson is 14-4 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached for Houston. 

Hunter is 13-25 ATS  versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game as the coach of GEORGIA ST. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Liberty and Mississippi State played four common opponents this season.... Austin Peay, Alcorn State, Alabama and Vanderbilt. Mississippi State smashed  all of them, including a split against Alabama. Liberty lost to each of them. Mississippi State went 4-1 against the list with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points. Liberty went just 1-3, and all three losses coming by nine points. The one win was over Alcorn State by 22. State won that game by 23. According to Kenpom Mississippi State is the 21st best team in the nation with the 30th toughest strength of schedule and have a definite edge here.

 822 Mississippi State  to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

 Wisconsin has been a defence first team all season long, but have been even more staunch defensively of late, allowing 59.6 ppg in their L/5 while scoring just 64 ppg on average. Im betting they once again force their pace on the Ducks and will drag their opponent into a ugly affair that will stay on the low side of the total. Oregon has allowed just 64.2 ppg on the road this season, and will have no problem elbowing their way through this tilt. 

WISCONSIN is 6-0 UNDER in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less  points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 114 ppg scored.

Neutral court teams where the total is 119.5 or less (OREGON) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 31-7 UNDER L22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Colgate score just 57 points in a DD loss to Syracuse in their non conferenc schedule, and Im betting they will have issues scoring here vs Tennessee. My projections estimate a total combined score in the mid 140 range, this giving us value on the under. 

COLGATE is 9-1 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 135 ppg scored.Langel is 8-0 UNDER  in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or better  as the coach of COLGATE with a combined average of 132.2 ppg scored.

TENNESSEE is 10-2 UNDER  in the first round of the NCAA tournament with a combined average of 138.5 ppg. TENNESSEE is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 137 ppg. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (COLGATE) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in March games are 66-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER