Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports -NFL long term 88-61 59% conversion rate and a current 28-11 72% run! NBA- More than $102000 in dime player profits run ! NHL 122-89 58% run +$27000 dime players profits! CBB 11-3 79% Run.
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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 20, 2019
Clippers vs Spurs
UNDER 222½ -109 Won
Play Type: Premium

The Clippers are currently in disarray, and are having problems at both ends of the court,  as is evident by 5 straight losses, and are now going to play todays games without forward Danilo Gallinari (back) and  guard Lou Williams (Hamstring). With the Clippers offence not clicking on all cylinders of late, and injuries slowing them, Im betting a more concerted defensive effort will be on tonights agenda vs a San Antonio Spurs side, that has gone under in 7 of their L/9 at home as favorites with the combined average score of 209.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.


Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 20, 2019
Suns vs Wolves
-10½ -105 at BMaker
Play Type: Free

 The well rested Wolves  lost last time they played todays visitor 107-99 as 7.5 point chalk and now have revenge on board .Im betting they get what they want vs a  tired Suns team that played last night in Charlotte and now finishing a exhausting 4 game road trip. Note: Minnesota is 9-1 ATS with same-season loss revenge in this series. 

MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS in home games versus sub par  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season with the average margin point diff clicking in at more than 14.7 ppg. PHOENIX is 1-10 ATS versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with the average point diff registering at 12.1 ppg. 

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite of 7or more, off a home loss are 33-11 ATS L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota Wolves to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 20, 2019
Missouri State vs Drake
Missouri State
+4½ -110 at sportsbook
Play Type: Premium

The Missouri State  Bears have won their last two MVC road games with recent wins at Indiana State & Bradley and are more than capable of hanging tough here and getting us the cover. Missouri State also has revenge on board for a pair of losses to Drake last season, by 61-58 and 76-73 scores. Note: The Blackies are 8-2 SU vs the Bulldogs with revenge  and get my backing here today. 

HC Ford of Missouri State  is 14-2 ATS in road games in January games in all games he has coached in his career. 

Play on Missouri State to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 20, 2019
Patriots vs Chiefs
OVER 56 -110 Won
Play Type: Premium

 Future HOF QB Tom Brady,  , threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers last week to advance to the championship game  and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs when they played back in October. Im betting on the Pats doing a boat load full of damage again, and for the KC Chiefs behind the best young arm in football Patrick Mahomes to also light up the board in a game I have pegged to go over the number. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

In game theory, an outcome is a situation which results from a combination of player's strategies. Every combination of strategies (one for each player) is an outcome of the game. A primary purpose of game theory is to determine which outcomes are stable according to a solution concept. Thus usually the most likely explanation and most likely scenario is the most likely outcome. 

 Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (27 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25  or less turnovers/game committed) are 68-30 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

My projections estimate 62 combined points going on the board or more.

Play on the OVER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 20, 2019
Rams vs Saints
+3½ -117 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

 NFC Championship Game

The Rams. have played some of their best ball on the road going  14-3 SU away from the Coliseum under HC McVay,  dating back to last season and deserve our respect here as underdogs vs the New Orleans Saints.  The Rams D has been solid on the road this season, allowing an average of 19.9 ppg,  while it must be noted that the Saints offence has looked inconsistent down the stretch and have scored 14 or less points in 3 of their L/6 games, and only twice scored more than 20 points.  With that said, Im betting on the Rams keeping Drew Bree's and company to a minimum output while they themselves do enough damage to possibly  pull off the upset and more importantly cover the number. 

This  championship  round of the play offs has seen 13 lucky upset underdog winners since the  2000 campaign and I wont be surprised if the Rams add their names to that list after today.

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team (265 or better  PY/game) against a poor passing defence (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rams to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 20, 2019
Patriots vs Chiefs
+3 -107 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

Everyone loves how explosive the KC Chiefs are offensively, but the Pats behind a future HOF QB and coach are a solid wager here as underdogs. 

In each of the last three games Tom Brady has started in which the Patriots were a dog by a field goal or less... the Pats have won by DDs. 

NEW ENGLAND is 15-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last week.

Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS  in playoff games since 1992 and s 1-9 ATS  after gaining 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

NFL team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-7 SU L/5 seasons and 11-1 SU this season! 

Play on New England to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Jan 21, 2019
Predators vs Avalanche
-105 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

The Avs has not been consistent for a while, and despite of being off a win last time out by a 7-1 count vs LAK have shown an inability to keep momentum going as they are 0-7 L/7 after a victory and  COLORADO is 1-8 ATS after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game this season.  Nashville, despite a bumpy run of late, match up exceptionally vs their hosts the Avalanche and have a recent history of doing well here in the Mile High City as is evident by winning 9 of their L/10 visits to Denver.  The Preds also have the ability to slow down the Avs key to success the line Rantanen , Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon . Teams that can slow this trio down can beat Colorado more often than not and that what Im betting the Preds do here today.

Avalanche are 3-10 in their last 13 overallRoad team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Nashville to win on the moneyline 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 21, 2019
Blazers vs Jazz
UNDER 218 -103
Play Type: Premium

My projected Totals estimate for this game, is closer to 215 thus according to those projections we have value with an under wager here. 

Utah is well rested and will be ready to play a free flowing Portland team physically here today in an effort to slow their offensive efficiency. The Jazz have held 4 of their L/6 opponents to 99 points or under, and are currently playing the kind of D we have come to expect from this hardcore blue collar group behind the 3rd ranked ppg allowed and 3rd best defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland owns the 18th rank pace, and when they are not allowed to flow and connect are a team that can falter, as was the case here in Utah when they visited here back in December scoring just 96 points which followed up scoring just 90 points against the Jazz at home a couple days earlier. Im betting on a repeat type of combined score here tonight in Salt Lake City.

UTAH is 14-6 UNDER  after playing a home game this season with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.UTAH is 15-5 UNDER  in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 season

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH/PORTLAND) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 21, 2019
Magic vs Hawks
PK -109 at GTBets
Play Type: Premium

The struggling Orlando Magic, visit the up trending Atlanta Hawks in a holiday matinee Monday afternoon in a tilt that Im betting favors the home team.Atlanta is currently  in 12th place in the East, one spot behind Orlando, but has been the better of the two of late, going 8-8 SU in its last 16 games. 

ORLANDO is 18-31 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46%or less  on the season, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%  or better of their shots are just 32-86 L5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 32-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 21, 2019
Creighton vs Georgetown
PK -109 at GTBets
Play Type: Premium

Monday's showdown features the top two scoring offenses in the league with Creighton averaging 83.5 ppg with the Hoyas right behind with 82.8 ppg. Georgetown continues to be the top rebounding squad in the BIG EAST with 40.6 rpg and also leads the conference in assists with 17.5 apg and Im betting that their ferocity under the glass and ability to spread the ball around will be the difference maker for a home team win in this spot for Georgetown.

The Hoyas behind a revenge factor are my choice tonight vs a Bluejays program that won both contests last season and have won three-straight in the series which activates a personal 17-2 ATS triple revenge angle that I have used over the L/7 seasons. 

Note: Creighton has lost four-straight BIG EAST games following a league-opening victory over Providence and have not traveled well vs power 5 teams losing 4 of their L/5 with Providence being the exception. 

CREIGHTON is 2-11 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 season.CREIGHTON is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.s 3-11 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Georgetown to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 21, 2019
Baylor vs West Virginia
+3 -105 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

 West Virginia is off a huge win vs Kansas this past Saturday and are now in a huge letdown situation. With  Baylor  out looking for revenge for  a 13-point loss in the first round of the Big 12 tourney last season which was their 3rd loss in this series last season, I now expected the Bears to be bad news for  Huggins and company. Before West Virginias last game they did not look like contenders and are down a notch this season talent wise, so its not like Im calling for a miracle here or anything today by backing a highly cmpetetive  Baylor team that is 6-0-1 ATS L/7 overall.W VIRGINIA is 13-25 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Baylor is 12-3 ATS under head coach Scott Drew when not favored by more than 6 points against sub .500 opponents.BAYLOR is 10-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 season

Play on Baylor to cover 


Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.