Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2017
Samford vs Loyola-Chicago
Samford
+7½ -105 at 5Dimes
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Samford has 6 talented guards and must not be underestimated, after showing us their tenacity last season with a 20 win campaign. I'm betting they will have three point guards on the floor this afternoon and go small, which will give Wis Milwaukkee some problems. If they have to go big, they can do that also with the like s of 6'5 Denzel-Dyson and Cunningham at the post. A new head coach in Wis Milwaukee  has many wondering how this program will form going forward with Baldwin at the helm, he inherits a side that finished last in the Horizon league standings last season  that has hands full with the cupboard fairly empty.   I'm not sold on this team doing much this season and as far as being favs today, I expect they will be lucky to come out of this game with a win , little lone a cover.


SAMFORD is 14-2 ATS   versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or better.SAMFORD is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game.


Play on Samford to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2017
Boise State vs Iowa State
Boise State
+2 -105 at 5Dimes
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

PUERTO RICO TIP OFF - Final Rnd - HTC Center - Conway, SC

Leon Rice has made this Boise State program a legitimate value line side, and have 20 or more wins in 6 of 7 seasons Rice has coached the team and have the best player sin the Mountain West on their side Chandler  Hutchinson ( 17.4 ppg). there are some changes but this team has tremendous work ethic can shoot darts from the perimeter. Meanwhile, Iowa State, despite of recent successes are a team in a rebuilding mode, after some key heavy player personel losses from last season, and it may take them time mature and jell this season with the younger group now on the floor. Right now Iowa State is fad material against this time of team in a wait see type situation.

BOISE ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 after 3 consecutive non-conference games.

Play on Boise State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2017
Monmouth vs Virginia
Monmouth
+18½ -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Kings Rice's Monmouth group have been a tremendous MAAC program over the L/4 seasons. they have captured back to back 20 wins seasons and captured a reg season league championship.  Yes, they no longer have 6 returning starters but the recruiting class is strong, especially on offense, and can  finally get this team over the hump and into the NCAA tourney. Meanwhile, Virginia, a side known for their stifling defense, is still a strong team despite of new faces, and some unknowns, but this line according to my own early season numbers is a little bloated, and based somewhat on their pedigree rather than the product on the floor.

MONMOUTH is 14-5 ATS  L/19  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record and is 13-3 ATS  L/16 versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots .

Play on Monmouth to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2017
Indiana State vs Ohio
Indiana State
+2½ -110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

CHARLESTON CLASSIC - Final Rnd - TD Bank Arena - Charleston, SC

Both these teams won their first  games, but have both loss their L/2. Indiana St  has a history of playing teams tough , despite of having some tough luck from a win perspective. Last season, 18 of their 31 games were decided in the L/2 minutes, and 6 games went ot OT. Now with a little bit more determination, and a better recruiting class, I'm betting they remain consistent on this front, and according to my cross reference rankings matchup well vs this particular opponent and could easily win this game SU.

OHIO U is 3-11 ATS L/14 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game.

Play on Indiana St to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Panthers vs Ducks
Ducks
-130 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 Former Anaheim stars Teemu Selanne and Paul Kariya will be honored after their Hall of Fame inductions before the Ducks and Florida Panthers drop the puck so their is a bit more special meaning to this game for the Ducks and their fans. QUOTE: "I mean, you are talking about two legends right there, two guys we all grew up watching," said Roy, who grew up in Greenfield Park, Quebec, watching Selanne and Kariya work their magic. "The building is going to be electric for sure. We're all going to be skating with a little extra for those guys." END QUOTE:

I know the Ducks are banged up with multiple injuries , but they are on 3 days rest, and have done well on fresh legs lately going 7-1 in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Meanwhile, the Panthers are tired as they play their 4th game in 6 days and are  0-5 in their last 5 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation and have played 6 games in 10 days, which is not a good omen for their chances, as they are 0-9 ATS L/ 9 in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days losing by an average of 2 gpg.

I know Anaheim may not inspire bettors because of their current  funk, but they are   8-0 ATS (+8.0 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and viable bets here at home tonight  behind their top tier goaltender John Gibson who  is coming off a 42-save effort against Boston and now owns a  2.84 goals-against average and .920 save percentage on the season.

Play on the Anaheim Ducks to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2017
Fordham vs Tulane
Fordham
+5 -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

JAMAICA CLASSIC - Final Rnd - Montego Bay Convention Centre - Jamaica

Jeff Neubauers Bronx crew ( Fordham) enter this season their a program that can finally give teams a run for their money and pull of upsets. That was not the mindset before this HC took over. Most recently they have beaten 9 of the 13 teams in the Atlantic 10, upsetting VCU in Rhode Island thanks to a stingy D and matchup very well  vs todays opponent Tulane on a neutral court.

TULANE is 1-10 ATS  L/11 versus good defensive teams - allowing 64  or less points/game.

Neubauer is 25-7 ATS    in road games versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of  42% or less in all games he has coached  in his career.

Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick like TULANE - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 5-25 ATS L/20 season for a go against conversion rate of 83% for bettors.

Play on the Fordham to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 19, 2017
Bulls vs Suns
Bulls
+3 -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Two franchises the Bulls and the Suns are going through  rebuilding programs  will meet today in Arizona.The Suns enter of a win vs the  Lakers for the first time in three meetings and the Bulls took down Charlotte to end  a five-game losing streak. When it comes to a direct cross reference player vs player and systems check, my own data suggests the Bulls are the superior team , which gives us value taking the points here in this spot.


Phoenix is ranked dead last  in defense in the league, allowing 116.6 ppg with a SRs -9.77 . The Bulls rank 11th overall in Defense, with a SRS -8.24.  Note:SRS Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Suns are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.Road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Phoenix.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the SUNS - off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record 44-78 ATS for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Patriots vs Raiders
Patriots
-6½ -116 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

The Raiders go head to head with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots this Sunday in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City .  The Pats after a slow start to their campaign have looked over powering of late and last week against the leagues No.1 defense (Denver) put 41 points on the board in a lopsided win. This week vs the 28 th overall ranked Raiders total defense, that allows 361.1 ypg, another romp is expected by me. The champs D, was also a question mark earlier on this season, but wow , have they ever come around, as is evident by allowing 14,17,7, 13 and 16 points  in their L/5 overall allowing  a combined average of just 13.4 ppg. I know the Raiders behind their stud QB Derek Carr have a reputation for being an explosive offensive team, but to this point in the season have not shown much consistency this year with their attack, averaging just 21.8 ppg, and I'm betting will find it hard to keep up with their behemoth  opponents today.

Belichick is 28-9 ATS  L/37 after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games with the average score clicking in at  NE 28.8 opposition 18.8 and is  15-4 ATS L/19 after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games with the average score clicking in at NE 29.3 opposition 17.5. NEW ENGLAND is 13-0 ATS   after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games with the average margin of victory coming by 15.5 ppg ( 2 TD plus)

OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS  L/12 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 .NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS L/6  in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  L/6 as a road favorite of 7 points or less.NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play.

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/G  or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less  forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 43-17 ATS over the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Projected score: New England 37 Oakland 17

Play on the New England Pats to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Eagles vs Cowboys
Cowboys
+4 -115 at Bovada
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

The Dallas Cowboys cannot really afford another loss, at this juncture of the season, and will be hell bent on taking out the red hot Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday night deep in the heart of Texas. Add to that the Cowboys have revenge on board for last seasons divisional play off loss, to these same Eagles and you have a hyped up and desperate side to back.  It must be noted that the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS L/7 on  Sundays playing with revenge with 6 of those games SU victories and are 31-16 ATS L/47 as home dogs.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65  or more yards/play.DALLAS is 34-18 ATS L/52 after a loss by 14 or more points which happened last time out.

NFL Road favorites like Philadelphia  - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 19-45 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Redskins vs Saints
OVER 51 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

This game looks very much like it will see a lot of points put on the board this week in the Super Dome. Both teams rank in the top 10 in passing yards, and will be ready to unload in a big way here this week. Dating back to the 2015  season the Skins have gone over in 12 of their L/15 road games. I know the Saints D, is much improved, but over the L/3 seasons Saints home games have seen a combined average 63 ppg go on the board, and no one should be surprised by another huge output here this Sunday. Last week Washington put 30 points on the board against the Vikings 4th ranked D, so based on their prowess packing on the points here will not be as difficult as some might think for the Skins.

WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER  L/6 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more  yards per return.WASHINGTON is 11-1 OVER  L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging  350 or more yards/game.NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER  L/9  in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season .WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER   after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game  ( All the combined averages of these games went over todays total)

The Saints are 20-0 OU L/20 off a game as a favorite when facing a non-divisional opponent that has averaged fewer than 5.2 rushing first downs per game. the last 10 games have all eclipsed the 51 point plateau.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games have seen the OVER convert 24 of the L/29 times dating back 10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Rams vs Vikings
Rams
+2½ -110 at GTBets
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Its taken me some time to be persuaded that the Rams are for real. Well this week, I've finally come to the conclusion they are. After consistently beating up on opponents  winning 4 straight and outscoring their L/3 opponents by a 117- 24 count their cross reference power rankings have skyrocketed.  With that said I;m sold on the Rams abilities and will back them today vs a what I still believe is a over rated Minnesota Vikings group that showed some vulnerabilities defensively last week by allowing Washington to put 30 points on the board against them.  I'm also betting Case Keenum  the upstart QB of the Vikings does not matchup well against this Rams smash mouth defense very well, and could find himself on his back quite a bit this week.

NFL team vs the money line like the LA Rams - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 25-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Bucs vs Dolphins
Bucs
PK -107 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

TB look like viable bets here as they come off a 15-10 win vs the Jets last week. I expect them to carry that  confidence of that victory here this week, into this tilt vs a Miami side that has been outgained in 7 of its L/9 games by an average of 66 ypg. The Fins are worse than their 4-5 record, and must not be over estimated in their ability to cover or win here even at home. The Fish have failed to cover 5 straight in this series, and are 1-8 ATS overall. Look for Buccaneer B Ryan Fitzpatrick to  just enough to get team to the promised land in game of two downtrodden sides.

MIAMI is 3-12 ATS  L/15 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game .TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in weeks 10 through 13 over the last few seasons.TAMPA BAY is 17-6 ATS  L/23 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games .

NFL team vs the money line like Miami - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 3-29  SU dating back 24 seasons for a go against SU conversion rate of 91% for bettors.

NFL Home teams like Miami - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 18-51 ATS since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 1 unit reg selection

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.