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Alex Smart |
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| Alex Smart Sports - Where winning means everything. Get the bankroll expanding info the books do not want you to have. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 Louisville vs. Florida State |
Louisville +7 -120 at MIRAGE |
in 1d |
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Oh how the mighty have fallen, as Taggarts Florida States looks to be a undisciplined shambles. Taggart's team is one of the worst in all of college Football for incurring penalties and that indirectly becomes a situation that facilitates their down trending projections in my power rankings. I know that Louisville's QB Jawon Pass may not start because of a nagging foot injury, but Malik Cunningham his backup is more than capable of leading his team here as was the case in last weeks win vs Western Kentucky. FLORIDA ST is 3-12 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and s 4-15 ATS L/19 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points . CFB road team (LOUISVILLE) - a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) against a horrible defensive team ( 34 or more PPG), after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. CFB home team (FLORIDA ST) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 57-112 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Louisville to cover |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 19, 2019 Padres vs Brewers |
UNDER 9 -115 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Padres starter Joey Lucchesi 10-8, 4.22 ERA, 145 SO has emerged as one of the Padres' most reliable starters and Im betting he limits the Brewers production here this evening.LUCCHESI is 12-3 UNDER in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. The Brewers have average just 4.2 rpg vs lefties this season via a .241 BA. Meanwhile, since coming over from the Pirates,Lyles is 6-1 with a 2.39 ERA and a .209 opponents’ average in his first nine starts for the Brewers and Im betting on him being equally tough on the Padres batting order here tonight . The Padres have gone under 11 straight times in the last game of a series as a road dog after a game in which they did not score after the third inning with a combined average of 6.45 rpg scored and no game has seen more than 9 runs scored. SAN DIEGO is 16-4 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. Play on the UNDER |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 19, 2019 Angels vs Yankees |
Angels +230 at Mirage |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Yankees' Thursday starter, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka (10-8, 4.60 ERA), is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his past three starts. He gave up four runs on eight hits in five innings last Friday during New York's 6-5 loss at Toronto and currently looks vulnerable. Meanwhile, Heaney despite of some recent struggles has shown flashes of brilliance, as he went 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts in August. Heaney is 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA in three career starts against New York, one outing in 2015 and the other two last year. Angels are 5-1 in Heaneys last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.Angels are 4-1 in Heaneys last 5 road starts. Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 games with umpire Whitson behind home plate. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - below average hitting team (AVG at least .265) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (AL) are 32-9 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Angels to win on the ML |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Sep 19, 2019 Titans vs Jaguars |
OVER 39 -105 |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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These teams took part in low scoring affairs last week so a lot of the public is jumping on the under here. However, Im betting on a different result. The Titans and Jaguars have averaged 46.6 combined ppg in the last 7 meetings and a combined score in that range is on my projection charts for this tilt. Division tilts in week 3 of the reg season have gone 21-5 to the OVER when the Total is set at 39 points or more.AFC South Division contests like this one are 7-0 OVER dating back 7 seasons when the home side is a underdog of 3or more points.NFL home underdogs have gone 17-4 OVER dating back 11 seasons when both teams sides scored and allowed less than 20 points in their last game which was the case for both teams. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/TENNESSEE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 37-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 19, 2019 Houston vs Tulane |
UNDER 56½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Tulane is a fine team with a under rated and strong D, and a grinding run game. Im betting these will both be on full display this Thursday night . Im also betting the Green Wave D, will limit Houstons explosive offence, and their run game will be dominate as the Cougars eat up plenty of click time. Meanwhile, Houston under HC Holgerson has implemented an extremely slow pace , so clock time will tick tick away in unison with Tulane's modus operandi which Im expecting to manifest in to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. TULANE is 13-4 UNDER versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more. rushing yards/carry. TULANE is 7-0 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. TULANE is 13-4 UNDER after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Note: The combined average scores of these trends above did not exceed this current totals number. CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (HOUSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive unders, quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 20 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes. My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%! I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections. |