Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 20, 2018
Pirates vs Reds
Reds
-108 at GTBets
Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Premium

JAMESON TAILLON (R) vs. TYLER MAHLE (R)

Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle (7-7) was 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA in his previous seven starts before making his worst start of the season, a 19-4 loss to the Cleveland Indians on July 11 in which he gave up five earned runs and six hits in 2 1-3 innings. Im betting on him rebounding here vs the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. Note:

The Reds have won 16 in a row when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after playing as a road dog when their starter went less than four innings in his last start.

Reds are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Meanwhile, the Reds batting order matches up well vs Pirates starter Taillon.  The Pirates right-hander   (6-7), who   was roughed up for six runs and eight hits in six innings the last time he faced the Reds, in May and is my go against hurler in this spot. 

Pirates are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.PITTSBURGH is 21-45  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the moneyline 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 20, 2018
Cardinals vs Cubs
Cubs
-132 at pinnacle
Lost
$132.0
Play Type: Premium

JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. JON LESTER (L)

The Cubs have won 13 of their last 16 games and own a  three-game lead over Milwaukee in the National League Central. Meanwhile, the Cards have lost 4 of their L/5 , and 8.5 games behind the Cubs, and once again look like fade material, as they go with Flaherty on the hill who is winless in his last six starts. 

Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.

, Cubs sud starter Lester hasn’t lost since May 23, and has recorded  8-0 record along with a 2.80 ERA in nine starts over that stretch and once again I'm betting on nothing changing here vs the Cards.

Cubs are 5-0 in Lesters last 5 home starts vs. Cardinals.

LESTER is 11-0 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. (Team's Record)LESTER is 11-1 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)LESTER is 16-3 against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)

MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (ST LOUIS) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), after allowing 9 runs or more are 19-61 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of  76% for bettors. 

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jul 20, 2018
Wings vs Sky
UNDER 180 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Chicago losers of 17 of their 23 games this season  know they need to slow this game down against the super explosive Wings'  to have any chance at victory, and I'm betting as a result  will be very physical here . The Sky enter the game  losers of their last four contests, with each of those losses coming by double digits and in no way shape or form feel confident in turning this into a run and gun affair. Meanwhile, the Wings are off a nationally televised game vs the Mystics and will now be on tired legs and less than capable of running and gunning themselves. This I'm betting will result in a much lower scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. It must be noted that only two of Dallas's last 14 games have eclipsed this current total being offered. 

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (CHICAGO) - excellent free throw shooting team (80% or more) against a good free throw shooting team (76-80%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or more  of their shots are 35-8  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average score of those tilts ringing in at 153.4 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jul 20, 2018
Storm vs Sun
Sun
-2 -104 at pinnacle
Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Premium

Seattle is a top tier team, and Connecticut are also a team that needs to be respected especially on their own home court . Connecticut started the season 7-1 but has gone 5-10 since, the last two losses coming in stunning fashion, thanks to their lack of ability to pace themselves and just plain bad luck.The Sun lost to the New York Liberty on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer by Shavonte Zellous. Then, after two wins, Connecticut set up for the last shot against the Dream with the score tied. But the Sun turned the ball over, and Atlanta's Tiffany Hayes hit a Hail Mary half-court shot for the 86-83 victory. The indignity of those types of losses Im betting will ignite this Sun team into fervently  seeking redemption against one of the leagues top teams. The Sun also have revenge on board for previous losses to the Storm, so II big time effort is something I'm banking on by the host side. 

I know its hard going against a team like the Storm , especially after they dismantled Chicago last time out, but a 101-83 count, but a letdown situation is not out of ordinary after a performance like that. Note: SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  off an road win where they scored 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons and  is 3-11 ATS  after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. 

Favorites (CONNECTICUT) - revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season are 30-9 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBA Home teams SU (CONNECTICUT) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 25-5 L/5 seasons for a 83% SU conversion rate.

WNBA Home favorites SU (CONNECTICUT) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite are 31-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors winning by an average of 8.1ppg. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 20, 2018
Orioles vs Blue Jays
Blue Jays
-140 at BetPhoenix
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (6-9, 4.35 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Sam Gaviglio (2-3, 4.58)

 Bundy the the Orioles starter  Is  0-2 in his L/2 trips to the hill along with a ugly 12.27 ERA and is fade material here vs a Toronto side that outscored Baltimore 27-11 while sweeping four game series at home back in June.

Orioles are 1-10 in Bundys last 11 starts vs. American League East

Meanwhile,Gaviglio,  the Jays starter, has a 1.97 ERA in seven games (five starts) at home and looks like a viable pitcher to back here this evening. 

Blue Jays are 4-0 in Gaviglios last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.Orioles are 11-40 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Note:The Orioles have lost 15 straight on the moneyline in the first game of a series with rest on the road after they scored in at most two separate innings, which happened before the break. 

Play on the Toronto Blue Jays to win on the moneyline 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.