If the Mets lose their eliminated  from play off contention so needless to say they should pull out all the stops to get a win here. WASHINGTON is 5-13  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.WASHINGTON is 3-10  against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. 

NYM starter Rick Porcello after   having shaved more than half a run off his ERA last time out, when he matched his season high with seven effective innings I'll ride his momentum vs a side he has allowed to score three runs in 13 innings this season.  

Play on NYM to win 

J.A. Happ---(LHP)2-2, 3.25 ERA, 39 SO----Happ has been one of the Majors’ best pitchers over his last six starts, working to a 1.93 ERA with 36 strikeouts against five walks over 37 1/3 innings. Happ fired eight scoreless innings against the Red Sox in his last start, scattering four hits.Meanwhile,Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara-(RHP)3-2, 3.12 ERA, 30 SO---Alcantara has stepped up in September with a 2-1 record with a 2.25 ERA. He will make his seventh start of the season, and it will have big playoff implications. On the road this year, he is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA.Both thse pitchers Im betting will go long today in. tilt that favors an under wager. 

ALCANTARA is 8-0 UNDER  in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5 rpg scored. 

HAPP is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored.HAPP is 41-19 UNDER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.3 rpg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Miami has not been held to less than 106 points in any of these games vs Boston, and my projections estimate a similar out put here tonight and for Boston in desperation mode to also keep up offensively in more aggressive fashion and let it all hang out as elimination is a real possibility down 3 games to 1.  It must be noted that MIAMI is 44-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with the average combined score clicking in at 233.4 ppg.is 33-8 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 234.3 ppg scored. Note: The Celtics are averaging  114.6 points per 100 possessions this series, despite of their tentativeness at times.  Miami  has averaged 114.0 points per 100 possessions. 

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 228 ppg going on the board. 

BOSTON is 8-0 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Midd Tenn State looked bad in its first two games of the season, while 2-0 UTSA has looked very good converting on 11 of 11 red zone opportunities. With these sides operating at the opposite  end of the performance spectrum its an easy decision for me to take the hungrier uptrending side playing at home. Key will be a Road runners ground game thats cranking out  5.6 ypc. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (UTSA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at 17. 

CFB home team (UTSA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season is 30-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

Play on UTSA to cover 

The Lightning are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and hold a 2-1 lead in this series vs Dallas and are far an above the superior side. With the Stanley Cup just two wins away and the smell of redemption on the horizon after last years disappointing effort, look for a huge efforts from Tampa Bay here in game 4. Note: In the last eight best-of-7 NHL series in which the Tampa Bay Lightning have led 2-games-1 after three games, Tampa's Game 4 outcome presaged their series outcome (one loss, seven wins).

Play on TB Lightning to win 

Liberty has just 9 returning starters and lost their  leading rusher from last season , as well as their quarterback and top receiver in addition to its 3 top tacklers on D. I know Florida International also lost some experience from last season, but their defense now bolstered by the return of  of twin Dames brothers make them a tough group to move the ball against. In my opinion we have value with the underdog to cover. 

CFB road team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 32-8 ATS L/28 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Florida Int to cover 

Auburn has owned this overall series but have not played each other  since 2015 . Dating back to  2009 these teams have played 3 times.  Kentucky's last victory in this series in 2009 ended  a 15-game winning streak in the series for the Tigers. Both games played since that game were decided by a field goal and Im betting on another close affair here. I know Auburn is a top tier SEC team, but Bob Stoops group is ascending quickly and after looking at their recruiting class could be on the verge of something big. 

Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Play on Kentucky to cover

Georgia Tech as road favs did not sit well with me  knowing the school is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine away  trips when favored.  GTech is up-trending but laying wood with them on the road is not a recipe for success this early in their development. I know Syracuse is a side that no one loves these days, but now in desperation mode Dino Babers Orange Im betting come out here and leave everything on the field and get us the cover. 

Syracuse has covered 3 of their L/4 at home as 7 or more point dogs. 

CFB team (GEORGIA TECH) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 10+ PPG, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 4-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Pittsburgh is 2-0 so far with wins vs Austin Peay and Syracuse. Meanwhile, Louisville was beaten by Miami Fl,last time out  but proved that they can score and are more than capable of hanging with the Panthers here today. Note: Pittsburgh as home favs , are less than a consistent bet as they sport a lowly  8-15-1 ATS L/24 record. Also Cardinal HC  Scott Satterfield is 17-4 SU when coming off a loss, including 8-0 ATS when off a double-digit ATS loss.

Play on the Louisville Cards to cover