Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports-NFL/ College Football/NBA/NHL action now on board. Get the sports investment info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 30, 2021
SIU-Edwardsville vs Nebraska-Omaha
UNDER 136½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 30, 2021
Capitals vs Panthers
Capitals
+120 at linepros
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

The Washington Capitals,   arrive in South Florida on a three-game win streak and Im betting matchup well here vs a Florida side that just lost their first home game of the season last time out against the Seattle Kraken who they probably overlooked. Bouncing back here wont come easy vs a side that is 9-1-1 L/11 and send  goalie Ilya Samsonov between the pipes tonight. The Russian stopper is   is 9-0-1 this season and gets my support here tonight. 

WASHINGTON is 13-0 ATS n road games against inconsistent defensive teams - 29 or more  shots on goal, convert 17%  or more pp over the last 2 seasons.Capitals are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Capitals are 107-45 in their last 152 vs. Atlantic.

Play on Washington to win ( Late Steam)

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 30, 2021
Pistons vs Blazers
Blazers
-9½ -105 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Detroit has been competitive of late despite of dropping 6 straight SU. Meanwhile, Portland despite of a 3 game losing streak  play their best hoops at home where they own a 9-1 record and my power rankings suggest a conclusive win for the Blazers here tonight. 

The Pistons rank 29 in net defensive rating, and 28th in SRS (-8.23 ) while the Blazers rank 4th in offense rating and 15th in SRS ( 0.84) . Add in home court edges and this line according to my numbers should be of the lower DD variety giving us value at anything under -10. 

 SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average .

DETROIT is 2-15 ATS  after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.6.

NBA team (PORTLAND) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 30, 2021
South Dakota vs San Jose State
UNDER 138½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 30, 2021
SIU-Edwardsville vs Nebraska-Omaha
SIU-Edwardsville
-2 -113 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 30, 2021
St. Louis vs Boise State
St. Louis
+4 -115 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 30, 2021
Florida State vs Purdue
Florida State
+11½ -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 30, 2021
Elon vs NC-Greensboro
Elon
+6 -113 at pinnacle
Lost
$113.0
Play Type: Premium

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 30, 2021
Knicks vs Nets
UNDER 216½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Knicks run a slow pace ranking 22nd in the NBA and tonight against a  Brooklyn side with far more offensive weapons I expect the Knicks to turn this in to a slow grinding affair. This Im betting has a direct effect on the combined score staying on the low side of the offered number. 

Note: Brooklyn ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Under is 10-4-1 in Nets last 15 home games.Under is 7-3 in Nets last 10 games as a home favorite. Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

NEW YORK is 8-1 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 33-16 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 season for a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 105 points or less this season with a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 road games.Under is 9-1 in Knicks last 10 overall.Under is 9-1 in Knicks last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games as an underdog.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BROOKLYN) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 64-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 30, 2021
Sharks vs Devils
UNDER 5½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

The Sharks offense is not in good form as is evident by having  scored just 12 goals in their last six games  with six of those goals  coming  in one game vs Ottawa in a 6-3 victory. With that in mind the Sharks will play conservatively and in transition in front of G  Reimer who ranks   ninth in the NHL in Save Percentage (.933). Meanwhile, the host Devils, have been scoring with consistency of late, but once again the Sharks knowing this will be ready to make this in to a physical  defensive affair that Im betting ends a lower combined score than the offered Totals number.

Under is 6-0 in Sharks last 6 games as an underdog.Under is 5-0 in Sharks last 5 vs. Metropolitan.Under is 6-1 in Sharks last 7 overall.Under is 6-1 in Sharks last 7 games as a road underdog.

SAN JOSE is 7-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.SAN JOSE is 9-1 UNDER  against poor power play killing teams - opp score on 17.5% or more of chances this season.SAN JOSE is 14-4 UNDER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NHL Road teams against the total (SAN JOSE) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, off a road win where they shut out their opponent are 31-10 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Jersey.

Play UNDER

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.