CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #265 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 8 ET - In regular season NFL over the past two decades I have enjoyed plenty of success fading line moves. Knowing when and why to go contrarian to the market moves is a key to beating regular season NFL games. However, preseason NFL is an entirely different animal and the line moves, especially in 2019, have proven to go the right way more often than not. That said, despite a move here (which of course is generally sharp and not square money when it comes to preseason), I still see great value with the Bills laying as little as a -2 in this match-up. When you see a 2-0 preseason team getting the action over an 0-2 team in preseason you know it is sharp money as, generally speaking, backing the winless teams in Week 3 of preseason over undefeated teams is a smart play. The key to this match-up is the Lions defense has been atrocious in this pre-season. The Bills defense has been much better. Also, the Lions are now 1-5 in preseason games under head coach Matt Patricia. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 preseason road games. Buffalo's QB rotation has been performing much better than Detroit's counterparts. Also, history is not on the side of the Lions here either as they are actually 4-10 ATS in preseason action when they enter a game off two or more consecutive preseason losses. Look for the Bills to improve to 5-1 ATS in preseason games under head coach Sean McDermott the past 3 years combined. 10* BUFFALO

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Edmonton Eskimos @ 9 ET - Big line move toward Edmonton here. That is because everyone is aware that Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last week's game in the 4th quarter with an injury. However, what is being under-estimated by the betting markets here is that Blue Bombers back-up QB Chris Streveler got plenty of experience filling in for Nichols last season plus he has seen action this season as well. He is not a "normal" back-up in the sense that he gets used at times throughout games. That said, this is a huge game where a pair of teams are battling it out for West Division supremacy. Yes the Eskimos have revenge but they are being overvalued here. The Blue Bombers have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Also, Winnipeg is 8-4 SU and ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are playing against a team with a winning record. The Eskimos are 6-15 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Prior to last week's cover against a bad Argonauts team, Edmonton was on a 3-7 ATS run in August games. That poor trending resumes here! The Blue Bombers are 4-0 SU in divisional games this season while the Eskimos are only 2-2 SU in divisional games. 10* WINNIPEG

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Zach Plesac has struggled in back to back starts. The Royals are facing him for the 4th time since July 4th so they have plenty of familiarity with him. Speaking of familiarity, the Indians are facing Jakob Junis for the 6th time already this season! Junis has gone 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA against the Tribe and they are hitting .304 against him. Suffice to say, this is not a good match-up for the Royals right-hander. After getting shutout by a quality pitcher last night, Cleveland will respond by taking out their frustration on a Kansas City pitcher they have dominated in recent meetings. In fact, the Indians have gotten to Junis for 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his 5 starts against them this season! We've got a very manageable total (9 runs) to work with here and behind Junis is a Royals bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. The over is 4-2 in Junis last 6 starts against the Indians. The over is 2-1 in the 3 career starts Plesac has made against the Royals. The last two games of the Indians series with the Mets resulted in unders but the over had been on a 7-2 run in Cleveland games prior to that. In terms of looking for overs I like looking for games where a home team pitcher has been struggling. Plesac's struggles likely to continue here and, at he same time, you know the Indians are highly likely to continue pounding Junis as they have throughout this season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

RL Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies have plenty of momentum after their sweep of their short two-game set in Boston earlier this week. Philadelphia has now won 6 of their past 8 games and they were off yesterday and hold a big edge over the Marlins on Friday. While Philly is still very much alive in the Wild Card race, the Marlins have lost 9 of their past 10 games (and 14 of their last 18) after losing again at Atlanta last night. Miami enters this game with no rest and struggling while the Phillies come in rested and confident. The Phils also rare a big pitching edge in this match-up. Of course all of the above is the reason why the Phillies are favored in the -180 range on the money line in this one. That said, the value here is with the run line where Philadelphia is available at a pick'em price if you lay the -1.5 runs. That is the way to go as the Marlins Hector Noesi keeps giving up too many homers and is 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA. As for the Phillies Vince Velasquez, he struggled at Miami in late June but that was just his 2nd poor start against the Marlins in his last 8 outings. Velasquez generally has fared very well against Miami and he enters this outing on an overall run that has seen him allow 3 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts! Also, the Phillies bullpen is well-rested after off days Monday and Thursday and they performed very well in the Red Sox series. The Marlins bullpen has a 5.13 ERA which ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs