10* NCAA TOURN FREE PICK (Florida State -8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Seminoles covering the 8.5-point spread against the Catamounts. No disrespect to Vermont, who is a quality team, the Catamounts don't stand a chance against Florida State. 

First of all, I think the Seminoles are a lot better than people realize. I think they get overlooked a bit because of the fact they play in the ACC, where Duke, Virginia and UNC are all No. 1 seeds. They definitely check the box of a team playing it's best coming into the tournament.

FSU went 12-1 over their final 13 regular-season games and then won back to back over ranked teams in Va Tech and Virginia to get to the ACC title game. They would end up losing by 10 to Duke, but were tied at the half and only lost by 2 at home early in the year when the Blue Devils had Zion Williamson. 

They had wins over both LSU and Purdue, who won or shared the SEC and Big Ten titles. Also beat the likes of Florida by 21 and St Louis by 22, both of which are tournament teams. 

This is also a massive advantage in size for Seminoles. The Catamounts have one guy who plays significant minutes that is taller than 6'6  and often play 6'6 Anthony Lamb at center. Everyone is FSU's starting five is at least 6'5, which includes a 6'8 forward and massive 7-4 center in Christ Koumadje. Not to mention another big in 6'10 Mfiondu Kabengele. One of Vermont's biggest strengths is rebounding. No way they are outrebounding FSU. 

Not to mention Vermont's offensive efficiency ranks 104th and FSU has the 12th best defensive efficiency. Catamounts are 91st in defensive efficiency and 237th at defending the 3-pointer. Seminoles have the 35th ranked offensive efficiency. 

Vermont is not a deep team (basically played 6 guys in their conference title game). Florida State subs frequently and goes as many as 10-deep. Their goal is to wear down the opposition. I think they will and if they get Lamb in foul trouble it's going to get real ugly. Either way I think the Seminoles win by 10+. Give me Florida State -8.5! 

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40* NCAA TOURN PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Northeastern +6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Northeastern covering the 6.5-points against the Jayhawks, as I really think the Huskies are capable of pulling off the upset. It's no secret that this is not the best Kansas team Bill Self has fielded in his time at Lawrence. Jayhawks failed to win the Big 12 regular-season title for the first time in forever, have lost multiple key players to injury or other reasons. 

Where Kansas really struggles is on the defensive end, especially at defending the 3-point shot. They ranked 136th in 3-point percentage D. Northeastern can light you up from downtown. Huskies have 3 different guys that are shooting better than 40% from behind the line and rank 15th in the country in 3-point percentage. 

This is also a veteran Northeastern team and I think that experience will really pay off big for this team against a young and short-handed KU squad. Not to mention the CAA has had it's share of teams from that conference who have played well in this thing. There's a reason why the Jayhawks aren't a bigger favorite here. Give me Northeastern +6.5! 

50* NCAA TOURN LATE NIGHT SHARP TOP PLAY (Montana +15) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Grizzlies covering the 15 against the Wolverines in the opening round. It's not suppose to happen, but the NCAA Tournament made a mistake and for the second straight year the same two teams will play in the 1st round of the tournament. Michigan won the meeting last year, but only by 14 points and it was a mere 3-point game at the half. 

That was also the same Wolverines team that made it all the way to the title game. I just this year's Michigan team is down a few notches from last year's squad, while Montana is a better version of themselves. Grizzlies did bring back their top 3 guys and 4 starters overall from last year's team. They also have one of the best coaches no one knowns about in Travis DeCuire. 

One thing that I really like is Michigan is not a team likes to push the pace, which is really what Montana struggles with. Grizzlies would prefer it be a half-court game. That's what their offense excels against. 

Another thing is Michigan offense is pretty unique and I think it's really tough on teams that haven't seen it before, which could be why they have had so much success in the Big Dance. Montana won't be caught by surprise. 

Lastly, I really don't like the mental state of Michigan after they blew yet another game against in-state rival Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. It might not be pretty, but I think Montana keeps this thing a lot closer than expected. Give me the Grizzlies +15! 

40* NCAA TOURN MIDWEST REGION NO-BRAINER (Auburn -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Auburn at this price all day. I think people are really sleeping on this Tigers team, which is kinda shocking given they just won the SEC Tournament, taking down No. 2 seed Tennessee by 20 in the title game.  

Auburn comes in having won 8 straight and there's no doubt they are playing their best basketball of the season at the perfect time. I not only think they cover the spread in route to a victory over New Mexico State, but this is a team I have picked to make the Elite 8 and wouldn't be shocked if they found their way to Minneapolis. 

Auburn is a very difficult team to prepare for. They really create chaos on the court for their opposition, as they were No. 1 in the country in defensive turnover rate. They not only get a lot of steals, but they protect the rim with a ton of blocks down low. Offensively this team likes to shoot 3-pointers and ranked 27th in 3-point percentage. Offensive as a whole was 12th in offensive efficiency. 

Props to New Mexico State for ending the year on a 19-game winning streak and making easy work of the WAC. I think it has the getting too much respect. Aggies lost 73-58 at home to a pretty average St. Mary's team, only beat Pac-12 bottom feeder Washington State by 6 at home. Their biggest claim to fame is a mere 3-point loss at Kansas, but Jayhawks had a big lookahead game against Villanova and had just played a good Wofford team. 

Also there were 9 times during their 19-game winning streak where they won by single-digits. Auburns only non-conference losses were a 6-point neutral site defeat to Duke and a road loss at NC State. They really had their way with everyone else and I expect the same here. Give me the Tigers -5.5! 

50* NCAA TOURN 1ST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR (Nevada -2) 

I'll gladly lay a mere 2-point with Nevada against a Florida team that I'm not so sure deserves to be in the field of 68. Florida was just 9-9 in the SEC and outside of a couple of wins over LSU, they really struggled against the top teams in the conference. They lost by 21 to FSU, were outplayed at home by Michigan State and lost to the likes of Butler and Oklahoma.

On the flip side of this, I think Nevada is one of the best kept secrets in the country. Very few have any idea that this team was ranked in the Top 25 all season long. They were No. 16 in the BPI, No. 18 in the new NET ranking and No. 23 in Kenpom, which tells me they are a lot closer to a 5-seed. 

Nevada is also a team that lost out on a trip to the Elite 8 in the final seconds against Loyola-Chicago. They have an all senior lineup that consists of 5 different transfers. They are a very athletic bunch that has plenty of size (all 5 starters is 6'7 or taller). Look for Nevada to get a lot of freebies in this one. Wolf Pack rank 19th in free throw rate, while Florida has the 310th ranked free throw rate D. 

Gators rely on turnovers. Ranke 11th in TO percentage D. That's really negated here, as Nevada has the 9th ranked TO percentage on offense. Only reason Nevada isn't a better seed and not a bigger favorite is the non-conference schedule wasn't overly challenging. Still they didn't lose a single game out of conference. Give me Nevada -2! 

40* NCAA TOURNAMENT SOUTH REGION ATS MASSACRE (Villanova -4.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* MARCH MADNESS ATS MASSACRE (Texas Tech -12.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders making easy work of the Norse. Texas Tech is better than people think. The surprising loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament is the only reason they aren't getting more love. 

I'm confident that was more of them just not taking that game all that seriously, as they had beat West Virginia by 31 in the most recent meeting between the two. They had also won 9 straight prior to that upset, so it's not like that was a continuation of bad play. The fact that this team stood toe-to-toe with Duke in non-conference lets me know they are for real. Give me the Red Raiders -12.5! 

50* NCAA TOURN VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Houston -12) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Houston. While I think most people are aware of what Houston had done, but I don't think the majority understand just how good this team is. The Cougars rank 19th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. Georgia State in comparison ranks 102nd in offensive efficiency and 143rd in defensive efficiency. 

One thing that Georgia State does well is shoot the 3-pointer, but that's a big problem. Houston ranks 3rd in 3-point percentage D. I just think that this is going to be a blowout right from the start. Give me Houston -12! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Mississippi St -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the 6-point spread against the Flames. I love No. 12 over a No. 5 upset as everyone else, but I don't think it's happening here. Mississippi State is hands down the better team and will have no problem here winning by double-digits. Liberty lost to two SEC teams in Alabama and Vanderbilt by more than this number, including a 9-point loss to a Commodores team that didn't win a single game in the SEC. Mississippi State won by 16 on the road in their only meeting against Vanderbilt. Give me Mississippi State -6! 

50* NCAA 1ST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 126.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's matchup between Virginia Tech and St. Louis. I don't think either of these two teams are going to find it easy to score, as both of these teams are built on their defense. Both rank in the Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. St Louis also likes to grind things out and limit the number of possessions, which is ideal for unders. It's why the UNDER has cashed in 37 of the last 54 non-conference games for the Billikens. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

40* NCAAB UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Colgate +17.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Raiders keeping this thing closer than expected against the Vols. Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a win here for Colgate, but I think they can keep this close. 

That's because the Raiders can effectively score the basketball and are really good from behind the 3-point line. All five of Colgate's starters can shoot the 3. The worst of the bunch is Tucker Richardson and he shoots 36%. Tennessee only had 3 guys who play significant minutes that shoot better than Richardson. The Raiders will use the long ball to keep this close and the backdoor will be wide open if it comes to that. Give me Colgate +17.5!