40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 219.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 219.5 in this one. Both Charlotte and Indiana will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set, as the Hornets hosted the Suns on Saturday while the Pacers hosted the Mavs. Both teams won rather easily, so I'm expecting a little more edge defensive than you would typically see in a game with both teams on no rest. UNDER is 35-17 in the Pacers last 52 home games 13-4-1 in their last 18 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. UNDER is also 22-7 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Indiana. Give me the UNDER 219.5! 

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Illinois +8) 

I'll take my chances here with Illinois. The Fighting Illini come in off arguably their best game of the season, as they rolled Minnesota 95-68 at home as a 1-point dog. Most teams would be overvalued after a win like that, but Illinois had lost 5 straight, were 0-5 in the Big Ten and come in at 0-9 on the road. Iowa on the other hand is 10-1 at home. The Hawks have won 4 straight and are 9-1 in their last 10 overall. I'm not saying Iowa isn't the better team, I just think Illinois is going to want this one a little more. Hawkeyes could easily be looking to their rematch against Michigan State, who they will host on Thursday. Iowa is a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record and Illinois is 13-4 in their last 17 on the road after playing 4 straight games as a dog. Give me the Illini +8! 

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50* SAINTS/RAMS NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Rams +3.5) 

As difficult as it is to bet against the Saints at home, I just think the Rams are the more complete team and I trust their offense a lot more. I also think having already played in the Superdome earlier this season will work to their advantage.

Not to take anything away from the Saints defense and how well they played over the final 3 quarters of their Division Round win against the Eagles, but a lot of that was bad offense by the Eagles. It was like the confidence was zapped from Foles when he threw that early pick and he missed a lot of throws the rest of the way. It didn’t help that Philadelphia couldn’t run the ball. The Eagles attempted just 16 rushes and totaled a mere 49 yards.

I’m not about to sit here and say the Rams are going to run all over this Saints defense the same way they did last week against Dallas, but clearly this team has found something in the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Anderson.

On the flip side of this, I think the Rams defense is way better than they are getting credit for. LA didn’t have the best defensive numbers during the regular season, but I think part of that was a lack of focus, especially in all those games where they jumped out to big leads. A lot of people were talking about how the Rams gave up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and how Dallas would run all over them. The Cowboys ended up with 50 yards and 2.3 yards/carry.

If they can take away the running game, that really only leaves them needing to focus their attention on Michael Thomas. He had 12 of Brees’ 28 completions against the Eagles and more than half the yards (171) that he threw for. Stopping Thomas is easier said than done, but one guy the Rams didn’t have in that first meeting is Aqib Talib. LA’s secondary did a real good job of holding Amari Cooper to just 6 catches for 65 yards last week. Give me the Rams +3.5!

50* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY  (Chiefs -3) 

I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium. 

The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.

I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.

It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.

On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!

50* NBA NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (76ers -3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the 76ers as a small home favorite against the Rockets. James Harden is playing out of this world and Houston is getting a ton of publicity for it. I think it's definitely playing into their lines and creating value on the other side. Houston has only covered 3 of their lats 8 games and all 3 of those were at home. The other key here is the 76ers are going to be pissed off after suffering a rare home loss last time out to the Thunder. Give me Philadelphia -3.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (N Carolina -4) 

I just can't pass up the Tar Heels as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Hokies. Virginia Tech is getting a ton of love from the books due to their impressive start to the season, but they come in having failed to cover 4 straight. They are 4-1 in ACC play, but in their only two conference road games they have lost by 22 at Virginia and snuck out a 3-point win at Georgia Tech as a 7-point favorite. Hokies shot poorly in both road games. As for UNC, I somehow think they are flying under the radar right now. I think Duke is getting so much of the headlines that people are sleeping on this team and I think they make a statement against Virginia Tech. Give me the Tar Heels -4! 

40* NBA SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Wizards -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Wizards covering the 5.5 at home against the Pistons. I think a lot of people have written off Washington, not just because of their poor start to the season, but also the fact they lost All-Star point guard John Wall to a season-ending injury. As good as Wall is, I think there were some serious chemistry issues when he was playing and there's no denying the team has played better without him. Wizards are 7-2 ATS last 9 and have covered 5 straight at home, which includes a stretch of 3 straight home covers against the Raptors (lost by 2), Bucks (won by 7) and 76ers (won by 17). Detroit is not very good, play poorly on the road and are coming off a crushing home loss to the Kings. Give me the Wizards -5.5!