10* FREE MLB PICK (Cubs -103)

I'll take my chances here with Chicago as a small home favorite against the Cardinals. Hard to not like the Cubs here with Kyle Hendricks on the mound. Hendricks is a respectable 11-9 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 28 starts for 2019, but has been a different guy at home compared to on the road. Hendricks is 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in 13 home starts. He also comes in red-hot with a 1.53 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Even better, Hendricks is 8-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 18 career starts (14-4 team record) against the Cardinals. Give me Chicago -103! 

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50* NFL TITANS/JAGS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jaguars +2)

I was against Jacksonville in Week 1 at home against the Chiefs and was all over them as a 9-point dog in Week 2. Given how big an advantage it is for the home team in these Thursday games on short rest, I would actually have Jacksonville favored here.

Two big reasons why I like the Jaguars last week against Houston, is I was confident Jacksonville’s defense was way better than it looked against the Chiefs (Mahomes will make any defense out there look bad) and I liked what I saw from rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew.

While the concerns over the defense aren’t likely there, I still think people will be scared to back Minshew against a strong Titans defense. It’s not easy for any unit playing on just 3 days of rest, but I think it’s really hard on the road team to play well defensively in these games.

There’s also nothing about the Tennessee offense that gets me excited. They are as conservative as anyone with all the running and short passes they use. A lot of people will point to the 43 points they scored at Cleveland in Week 1, but I don’t think that Brown’s defenses is as good as people think and the Titans only had 15 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.

Titans are not the team you want to be taking in this spot, as they are just 16-34-3 in their last 53 vs a team with a losing record. They are also just 4-12-1 ATS last 17 on the road vs a team with a losing home record.

I know it’s early, but there’s a big difference in the locker room for teams that are 1-1 and teams that are 0-2. Jacksonville will be treating this like there season is on the line. Give me the Jags +2!

40* NCAAF HOU/TULANE ATS NO-BRAINER (Tulane -4.5) 

My early lean here would be to lay the points with Tulane at home. I just don’t think the betting public is responsible for the 2-2.5 point line move in favor of the Green Wave. While Houston comes in at 1-2, this is a program people are familiar with. They also got a big name head coach in Dana Holgorsen, a heisman contender in quarterback D’Eriq King and their two losses are both against ranked Power 5 teams.

As for Tulane, this is not a program that gets a lot of national attention and for good reason. Green Wave have posted just 3 winning seasons the last 10 years (40-83 overall). The thing is, they have been on the climb under 4th year head coach Willie Fritz.

Coming into the season this looked like it would be Fritz’s best team yet and it’s definitely looking like that. They have dominated in both wins and clearly are not a pushover if they are only losing by 18 on the road to a Auburn team that is now No. 8 in the country.

Tulane is really strong up front and that’s evident by the fact that they are 28th in the country in rushing at 235.0 ypg and 49th against the run (115.5 ypg). The stat that really stands out to me is they held Auburn to just 20 rushing yards in the first half (wore down in the 2nd half with the offense not being able to get much going).

I know the numbers are a bit skewed for Houston’s defense having played two really good offenses in Oklahoma and Washington State, but they offered zero resistance against Jalen Hurts and the Sooners offense and the Cougars had 498 yards despite a very sluggish 1st half.

Even in their win over Prairie View they only outgained the Panthers  380 to 318. The big thing to keep in mind is the defense wasn’t really expected to be great. They only had 4 starters back from a unit that gave up 45 ppg in the second half last year. Give me the Green Wave -5!