10* FREE NFL PICK (Bengals +6.5) 

I'll take my chances on the Bengals as a near touchdown underdog at home. Not only has New Orleans won 8 straight, but they have covered 6 straight games. After just beating the Rams by double-digits, the betting public won’t hesitate to back them against the Bengals.

While Cincinnati has a very respectable record at 5-3, this is not a team that gets a lot of love from the public no matter how well they are playing. Public certainly isn’t going to want anything to do with them after watching them fail to cover each of their last 3 games and seeing star wide out A.J. Green out with an injury. 

This is simply a really bad spot for the Saints, who I think could be in for a major letdown after their recent slate of games. It started with this team getting up for that Monday Night game against Washington, where Brees passed Peyton Manning to become the all-time leading passer in NFL history. Then came the 10-point 4th quarter rally at Baltimore where they won on a missed extra point by Justin Tucker. After that they went on the road and got revenge on the Vikings from last year’s fluke playoff loss and finally the huge tie-breaker game against the Rams for that No. 1 seed in the NFC.

While New Orleans is likely running on fumes, the Bengals are sitting there chomping at the bit off of their bye week. Cincinnati is also not an easy place for opposing teams to go and get a win. Bengals are 3-1 at home and the lone loss was that game against the Steelers, where they went down and scored to take a 21-20 lead with 1:18 to play, only to let Pittsburgh go right down the field and score (added 2-point conversion).

History also says now is a good time to back off the Saints, as they are a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 when they go into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. New Orleans has also had a poor history against the AFC North, going just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 against that division.

Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 30 or more points. Give me Cincinnati +6.5! 

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40* COWBOYS/EAGLES SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Eagles -7)

I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia at home. I can see some who might argue that there’s value with Dallas as a 7-point division dog, but I just want nothing to do with the Cowboys in this spot.

I get the argument here that this is a must-win game for Dallas and that effort will help them keep this close. I’m sure the Cowboys will play hard in this game. However, you have to believe they had that same thought process going into their game against the Titans last week.

I think losing to Tennessee the way they did didn’t sit well at all with this team and now they are on a short week of rest against an Eagles team that is going to be fresh and ready for a big 2nd half run.

I also hate this matchup for Dallas. While Amari Cooper had 5 catches and scored the Cowboys’ first touchdown, he only finished the game with 58 yards. I thought the play calling was very poor and it’s looking more and more like Prescott’s huge rookie year might have been a bit of a fluke.

Even with Cooper, this Dallas offense needs to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field and finish drives with touchdowns. The Eagles aren’t exactly a defense you want to attack via the running game. Philadelphia comes in ranked 2nd in the league, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground. Add in how much this game means to the Eagles and it being a prime time home game, I expect that defense to be flying around the field.

I know the Cowboys have a strong defense, but we saw the Titans have a lot of success attacking all that pressure Dallas likes to bring with the short passes out of the backfield. I expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to make sure to use that and I also think Wentz is talented enough to move the ball against any defense , especially at home.

I don’t necessarily think Philadelphia is going to runaway with this game, as it’s not easy blowing out division rivals, but I could definitely see something like a 27-14 game. Give me the Eagles -7!

40* NFL VEGAS PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Browns +6.5)

I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a near touchdown dog at home to Atlanta. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games.

I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen.

I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter).

I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins.  Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road.

More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.5! 

50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).

There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.

Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.

The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.

I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.

I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.

If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.