10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Bowling Green +21) 

The perception here is that Ohio is the only team with something to play for and they should win here rather easily. I can’t say that I think Bowling Green will get the win, but I do think the number has been inflated to the point that there's value with the home team.

While the Falcons weren’t competitive against Miami (OH) last week, they really haven’t been competitive against anyone away from home. They lost by 52 at Kansas State, 42 at Kent State, 52 at Notre Dame and 39 at Western Michigan.

What they have done is play much better at home. Their biggest win of the season came at home against Toledo, as they defeated the Rockets 20-7 as a 27-point dog. They also only lost by 18 at home to Central Michigan, which is tied on top the loaded West side of the MAC. 

I get there’s incentive for winning out to get to a bowl, but I also think this Ohio team isn’t in a great spot mentally. They came in thinking MAC Championship and just couldn’t deliver. What really makes it painful is how close they have been in defeat. Their 3 conference losses have all come by exactly 3-points.

This also wouldn’t be the first time the Bobcats were overvalued on the spread, they are just 2-8 ATS on the season, including 0-7 ATS as a favorite. They are also just 9-21 ATS on the road in Weeks 10 thru 13. Give me Bowling Green +21!

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40* NCAAF MAC ATTACK ATS MASSACRE (Eastern Michigan +5) 

I'll take my chances here with Eastern Michigan covering the 5-point spread at Northern Illinois.  I just think we are going to get a really big effort here from the Eagles in this one, especially with how close they have been to putting an end to this losing streak against Northern Illinois (lost 11 straight, last 3 decided by 7 or less).

It should also be a lot easier for Eastern Michigan bouncing back from a cupcake win over Akron than it will for Northern Illinois off that big game against Toledo.

The Eagles offense should put up a big number in this one. While they got the win over Toledo, the Huskies gave up 508 yards to the Rockets. That’s after they allowed over 600 yards the previous time out against Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan’s offense has scored 34 or more in 3 of their last 4 and had 498 yards last week against the Zips.

Eagles are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games and 23-10 ATS last 33 after a game where they had 450 or more yards of total offense. Give me Eastern Michigan +5!

40* NBA VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Grizzlies -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Memphis covering the 6.5-point spread at home against the Warriors. It's no secret that Golden State is in a world of hurt right now. I get Memphis isn't a great team, but with D'Angelo Russell now sidelined the Warriors just don't have the offensive playmakers to beat anybody, especially on the road. Not to mention teams are really enjoying beating up on Golden State after what they have done the last 5 years. Grizzlies are also a team playing well, as they have won 3 of their last 4. I think they win here by double-digits rather easily. Give me Memphis -6.5! 

40* NCAAB BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St -18) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones winning by 20+ at home against the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss isn't built to compete with Power 5 teams like ISU, especially on the road. Golden Eagles have almost no depth, as they basically play 6 guys. They need games to be played at a slower pace to have a chance and ISU likes to push the pace behind star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Another thing here favoring the Cyclones is turnovers. Southern Miss does not take good care of the ball and ISU ranks in the top 40 in steal rate. If the Golden Eagles get into any kind of foul trouble with their lack of depth, this thing could get real ugly. Give me the Cyclones -18! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Northern Iowa -15) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Northern Iowa covering the big number at home against Tennessee-Martin. Not only is this a really tough matchup for the Skyhawks, they are in a horrible situational spot playing their 3rd straight on the road in just a span of 7 days. They had to play Wichita State on the road on just 2 days rest last time out and got annihilated 103-62 as a mere 16-point dog. UNI is off to a perfect 4-0 start. Defense will be the key in this thing getting out of hand. Panthers are a really good defensive team. They are allowing 58.5 ppg and holding teams to 16 points below their average. Tennessee-Martin is givin up 83.5 ppg and almost 13 ppg more than their opponents average. Give me UNI -15! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (FIU -7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with FIU winning by double-digits on the road against Cleveland State. I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Panthers, who have started out 1-2, but those two losses have both come on the road against Power 5 teams in Mississippi State and NC State. They were competitive in both. They only lost by 8 as a 16.5-point dog at the Bulldogs and by just 9 as a 17.5-point dog at the Wolfpack. 

Cleveland State has started out just 1-3 with their only win coming against a non-D1 opponent. They two have played two power 5 teams on the road and lost by 35 at Minnesota and by 27 at South Carolina. They also lost by 20 at Missouri State. Give me FIU -7.5! 

50* NBA CENTRAL DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 219, as I think these two could easily get into the 230's. Chicago might be a bad team, but they got some playmakers on offense and love to push the pace. Bulls have played at a 107.6 pace in their last 5 games, which is the best mark in the league over that span. Chicago loves to attack in transition and the Pistons are one of the worst at defending in transition. Bulls also have a bad defense. Chicago is giving up 111.3 ppg and 115 over their last 5. Detroit is averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5 and giving up 112 ppg. Give me the OVER 219! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 208) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 208. I just think we are going to see a very slow paced game and both of these teams are strong defensively. Magic play at one of the slowest paces in the league and the Raptors pace of play has been on the decline, largely because they haven't had Kyle Lowry in the lineup. He's still out. Toronto has gone 6 straight games holding opponents to 44% or worse from the field and are facing a Magic team that is only scoring 98.5 ppg on the road this season. These two played back on 10/28 and combined for just 199 and I wouldn't be surprised if they stayed below the 200 mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 208! 

40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Nets -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Brooklyn as a small home favorite against the Hornets. I just think we are getting a good price on the Nets because of the fact that they won't have Kyrie Irving. While he's without a doubt their best player right now, they got more than enough talent to take down this Charlotte team. Hornets are no where close to as good as their 6-8 record. They got a net rating of -7.9, which is the 4th worst in the league. They should be closer to 3-11 than 6-8. Another big factor here is the Hornets have to be running on fumes. Charlotte is playing their 3rd straight on the road and 4th overall in the last 6 days. Give me the Nets -3.5! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (Colorado St -12) 

I'll take my chances here with Colorado State laying 12 at home against Arkansas State. The Rams are a team I've been impressed with early on and could see them being a big time factor in the MWC. They are 3-1 to start the year with their only setback coming at Duke. Arkansas State is a fluky 4-1 as they have played a soft schedule. I think the RedWolves defense will get exposed here as teams have been able to score at will inside and the Rams have a big time talent in big man Nico Carvacho. This is also a tough spot for Ark St, as they will be playing their 4th game in 7 days. RedWolves are not a deep team either, playing just 7 guys and I think they run out of gas in this matchup at high altitude. Give me Colorado State -12! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Indiana -18.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hoosiers winning by 20+ at home against the Tigers. Indiana didn't live up to expectations last year and I think it has them flying under the radar to start this season. They have started out 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The only game they didn't cover was by a 1/2-point in a 19-point win as a 19.5 point favorite against Portland State. That 19 point is their smallest margin of victory on the season. Princeton is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Tigers are allowing an effective fieldgoal rate of 60% and offer little to no rim protection. Indiana is averaging 93.5 ppg and shooting 54% from the field. Give me the Hoosiers -18.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UMass -6) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with UMass laying it on Rider and cruising to an easy win and cover at home. The Minutemen have started out a perfect 4-0 and their only non-cover was a 2-point win as a 3-point favorite at Fairfield. Rider opened up with road wins against Coppin State and Delaware State, but that was to be expected as those are two bad teams. They got a big test at ASU and failed miserably, losing 92-55. Rider doesn't shoot the 3 and gives up a ton of them, which is a recipe for disaster. I also think the Brons will be out of gas here. Rider is playing their 4th straight on the road and had just two days off from going way out west to face the Sun Devils. Give me the Minutemen -6! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Columbia +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Columbia as a double-digit dog against the Red Storm. The Lions bring back 5 starters, as well as senior guard Mike Smith. This is a better team than a lot of people will realize, especially after their 1-3 start. St John's rolled Mercer and Central Connecticut State, but didn't cover in a home win over New Hampshire as a big favorite and lost outright at home to Vermont as a favorite. Columbia has the experience and talent to handle St. John's pressure and I think an upset could be in the works. Give me the Lions +10.5!