Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Mar 21, 2019
Coyotes vs Panthers
Coyotes
+116 at pinnacle
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium
The Coyotes are better than the Panthers and have been in Florida the past few days after losing, 4-1, to the Lightning on Monday. Prior to that defeat, the Coyotes had won nine of their last 12 games. They are 10-3 the past 13 times meeting a sub .500 opponent.   This isn't a good spot for Florida. The Panthers just got done playing four consecutive road games. This is their first home game in a week. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Florida vs Nevada
Nevada
-2 -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Top Premium
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses.  The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation.  The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Bradley vs Michigan State
Michigan State
-18 -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score.  The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games.  Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down.  The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Murray State vs Marquette
Marquette
-3 -117 at BMaker
Lost
$117.0
Play Type: Premium
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine.  The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line. 
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 22, 2019
Clippers vs Cavs
Clippers
-6½ -108 at pinnacle
Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Premium

Break up the Cavaliers? I don't think so. Cleveland has won two in row beating the Bucks and Pistons. Milwaukee was minus Giannis Antetokounmpo and Detroit didn't have Blake Griffin when Cleveland posted those victories. 

 The Clippers are at full strength and going for playoff seeding. LA should be fully focused having been idle the past two days and realizing the Cavaliers have won two straight.  Collin Sexton is having a strong rookie season, but Cleveland doesn't offer much else. Kevin Love, the Cavaliers' best frontcourt player, may not play due to a concussion.  The Clippers average 10 points more per game than the Cavaliers. Cleveland has had problems matching up when taking on opponents from the superior Western Conference going 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS the past eight times. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Arizona State vs Buffalo
Buffalo
-4½ -109 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad.  The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season.  I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent.  The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones.  Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor.  Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
UCF vs VCU
OVER 126½ -109
Play Type: Premium
VCU ranks 10th defensively in the country. Central Florida gives up the 27th fewest points. So naturally we have a low opening total. But don't be surprised if far more points are scored than anticipated.  Central Florida produced 69 and 68 points, respectively, against Houston this season. The Cougars were statistically even better than VCU ranking eighth in the nation in fewest points allowed per game.  VCU has a string of scoring 69 or more points in 10 consecutive games.  The point spread is around pick, too, so overtime remains a real possibility. 
SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.