953 Philadelphia at Chicago

Arrieta & Darvish

The Phillies are 6-7 in one run and extra inning games, while the Cubs are 11-6. So we should see some regression in Philadelphia’s favor. Over the last seven starts these two have almost identical game scores of 51 for Arrieta & 52 for Darvish. Arrieta has a better strikeout to walk ratio, but You is off an 11 to 0 game. So how much do we trust that Darvish is back off that solid performance? 

While Darvish does rate 8% better by our pitching numbers, he’s still being priced as the Darvish of old. He’s battled injuries the past few years going back to his time in Texas. He pitched much of his last season there hurt, and he didn’t let management know. While we admire his pride, he just hasn’t been the same pitcher since. Our numbers give the Phillies an 11% offensive advantage here which is enough for us to back the road squad. 

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903 Colorado at Pittsburgh

Marquez & Archer

The Rockies own every key edge here except home field advantage. We rate Marquez 13% higher than Archer, and some of that has to do with Chris Archer’s past, as he has not pitched nearly as well since the trade to Pittsburgh. The Rockies have won 3 of 4 in Pittsburgh and Marquez has a 60 game score in his last five contests against the Pirates. Colorado took money overnight for good reason, but the line is still much lower than what we made it.

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