927 Cleveland at Chicago

Listed Plesac & Rodon

Somewhat surprised the Indians are the underdog here. Zac Plesac has a 63 average game score in his last seven starts. League average is 50. He has a 62 average game score in his career against the White Sox. Chicago is down three starters as Tim Anderson won't be back from injury until tomorrow.

Carlos Rodon has battled injuries throughout his career. When healthy is is a top flight MLB starter. But he missed his start earlier in the week with a stomach flu. He's been good over his career against the Indians, but has a 6.14 ERA in his last seven overall starts.

The Cleveland bullpen threw just 16 pitches last night as Beiber went nine full innings, the Sox pen combined for 47. Marshall, Hendriks and Crochet all took the mound. Plenty of value on the underdog Indians here.

PLAY CLEVELAND

915 NY Yankees at Toronto

Listed Kluber & Stripling

Two pitchers we want to fade pitching against each other in an offensive positive ballpark. As a lifetime Indians fan we have always loved Corey Kluber. When healthy he was a bulldog, and a pitcher we often backed. But because of freak injuries he is just a shell of himself. We saw both his earlier starts and in neither game did he look like the same pitcher as he was in Cleveland. He has an average game score of 40 this year with a SO to BB ration of 8 to 5. He doesn’t have the same control as what he did in the past, and for a guy who relied on hitting the corners, he just doesn’t have that ability.

We talked about Ross Stripling in his last start. He has been bombed by teams in the American League, and yet he’s in the Blue Jays rotation pitching in the most offensively dominant division in baseball. 

While neither team has gotten off to a hot start offensively, that all changes this afternoon. 

PLAY OVER

905 Cincinnati at San Francisco

Listed Mahle & Cueto

Johnny Cueto in his first two starts this year threw 105 and then 118 pitches. It’s the first time in years he has thrown that many pitches in back to back games. The 118 was the most he has had in quite some time. The last time he had over 110 pitches he was bombed in his subsequent start. 

Tyler Mahle was simply a different pitcher last year. A major improvement in his SO to BB ratio. He now has 75 strikeouts in his last 56.2 innings of work. He is an underrated starter and the line is pretty cheap here. Great value on the visiting Reds.

PLAY CINCINNATI

44 Anaheim at San Jose

Both these teams are poor skating 5x5 in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 25th. In xG/60 we see the Ducks at -0.42 and the Sharks +0.04. So we can expect major positive regression for San Jose.

Once again both teams have looked bad on the Power Play in G+-/60. Anaheim ranks dead last at 31st and San Jose is 26th. When looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we find Anaheim +6.69 and the Sharks +6.28. So Anaheim has a bit of positive regression on its way. 

On the Penalty Kill Anaheim ranks 26th and San Jose 12th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Ducks are -6.55 and the Sharks -5.74. A nice advantage for the host. 

Anaheim has two wins in six games this month, both against these Sharks in this building. This is the third game in four days for Anaheim. This is the final game of a 1-3 home stand for the Sharks who then travel to Minnesota and Vegas. This is the game San Jose has to have and we believe they get it.

PLAY SAN JOSE