*3 Star Play Under* The winner of this game gets into the playoffs. The loser goes home. These types of games generally have a lower posted total, and they deserve to since the tempo of the game is usually slower. The game means more than the rest of them, so the pace slows because no one wants to be careless with the basketball.

The first two matchups between these two teams this year had posted totals of 171.5 and 168.5. Now, we get a total in the mid 170's with everything on the line. It doesn't make any sense to me. 

Late in the WNBA regular season- betting unders has been a profitable angle in the last ten years. With teams fighting for a playoff spot, that makes me feel stronger about the under.

Las Vegas has slowed their tempo by about 3 possessions in the last four games compared to earlier this year. In their last three games, Dallas has played a little over a possession per game slower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Robbie Ray is much better on the road than at home. Ray has a 5.27 home ERA in his career. He has a 3.19 ERA on the road. His WHIP at home is a staggering 1.543. His WHIP on the road is only 1.203. In 4 starts in San Diego, Ray has a 2.88 ERA. 

The Padres have what might be the worst offense in baseball right now. San Diego was just shut down by Clay Buchholz last night. Buchholz threw a complete game, which means Arizona's top bullpen guys are all available for this game.

Joey Lucchesi starts for San Diego here. He has a 2.66 FIP or lower in 4 of his last 5 starts. Lucchesi has deceptive stuff, and he's backed by a deep bullpen. In fact, the Padres have a 2.88 ERA in the past 30 days. They have a 2.82 FIP which is easily the best in baseball during that time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have Miles Mikolas on the mound for this one. Mikolas is a guy I'm pretty high on. He has been really consistent this year, and his ability to avoid walks have helped him stay away from the big inning for the most part. Mikolas allows a 29.7% hard hit rate according to Baseball Savant, which is much lower than the average in the majors. His average exit velocity is low also at 85.3 mph. Mikolas throws strikes and he induces soft contact.

Wade Miley is a guy I'm low on. Miley doesn't miss bats, and he walks quite a few guys. In fact, he has 19 walks and 22 strikeouts on the year. Last game his line looked good on runs allowed, but he had good batted ball luck, and stranded quite a few runners on base. He struck out zero batters in six innings of work last time out. 

St. Louis is 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals have a deep lineup against lefties, and Carpenter is the hottest hitter in baseball. 

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Mikolas' last 4 home starts. The Cardinals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on four days of rest. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle.

Take St. Louis.