*4 Star Play Under* Montreal goes to Toronto in a CFL showdown set for Saturday afternoon. BMO Field is an outdoor field where the weather can make a big difference. What's the weather look like for this Saturday? Toronto is expected to get 22 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. 

That's the type of wind that will change a game. In every football league there is if you look at long term history, the under has done extremely well in these conditions. 

Neither of these offenses are very good to start with. Neither team has been able to run the ball this year. These teams rank last and second to last in rushing yards this season. They'll have to run it more with this weather, and I don't see them having much success.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one originally wouldn't have made my card, but with the weather forecast here I have to take the under. An average of 5 weather forecasts I researched came up with 21 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There is a 30% chance of snow during this game as well.

Blindly taking unders with winds of 20mph or greater has hit at a rate higher than 60% in the past 10 years. 

This is a rivalry game where you would expect both teams to be very motivated, and in general that helps the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Washington State* The Oregon Ducks have had a really tough schedule the last few weeks. They lost in overtime at home to Stanford in a game they obviously should have never lost. Oregon then bounced back to beat Cal on the road. They deserve credit for bouncing back in a spot like that, and that had to be an emotional win after losing to Stanford in the fashion they did. Then last week they beat Washington in overtime in a game that was misleading. Washington got the better of Oregon in that game according to the box score, but Oregon was able to sneak out with a hard fought win. There has to a be down game for Oregon coming somewhere soon after this recent run of emotional contests.

Oregon must now go to Pullman, which has always been one of the toughest places to play in the Pac 12, and take on a very solid Washington State team that had a bye week to prepare for this game. To make it an even bigger spot, ESPN's College Gameday is in Pullman for the first time ever this weekend. This is going to be a raucous environment. 

Washington State throws the ball 72% of the time on offense, and that makes them the most pass-happy offense in the nation. Oregon's run defense is strong, but they have struggled against the pass all year.

Oregon ranks 103rd in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed. Washington is going to air it out here, and they should have success. 

Situationally this sets up beautifully for Mike Leach's team, and I like them here.

Take Washington State. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets don't have the same kind of offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They lost a star quarterback and running back in the last couple years. Toledo is only 48th in the nation in yards per play this year. Toledo has only 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far (that is 56th best in the country). Buffalo's defense has excelled at stopping the big plays too. Buffalo has allowed only 9 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Buffalo's offense relies pretty heavily on Tyree Jackson and big plays through the air. Jackson is a really good quarterback, but winds of 20 mph and rain showers are forecast here. That's a clear negative for this Buffalo offense, and I think they'll have to be more conservative in this one. 

High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

This is a key battle in the MAC- and one where both teams should be very motivated. That generally benefits the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This number is too high given the circumstances of this game. First of all, it is hard to say how Penn State will view this game. They have lost two straight games and their preseason hopes are now gone. How do they respond? I don't see that as a positive for the over.

Indiana has time and time again played tight games against high quality Big Ten opponents, they just haven't been able to get over the hump. Allen is a defensive-minded coach, and I think his defense will be well-prepared for this big home game against Penn State. 

Though both teams are playing a little bit fast, they are only at 41st and 43rd in pace of play, so it is nothing extreme. The Penn State defense has been excellent this year too. Penn State is 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a tough schedule as well, and this defense has looked very good even in losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. 

Indiana's offense hasn't been efficient. They are 93rd in the nation in yards per play. The Penn State offense doesn't have the same kind of explosive ability from the running back spot this year with Barkley gone.

I've gone with an average of 5 weather forecasts for this game, and they are calling for 19 mph sustained winds during this game. High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers host the Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game on Saturday. Both of these teams play relatively quickly, at 45th and 21st in tempo. They are both good offenses as well, but this number is extreme.

When adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Missouri ranks in the top 20 in the nation in rushing defense. Memphis is first in the nation in yards per carry, but the Tigers have feasted on terrible defenses on the ground. They won't be up against a weak defensive front this time.

Missouri has done most of their work in the air, but winds of 20 mph on Saturday will make it very tough to throw. 

Games with a high total with strong winds have multiple very strong systems on the under. I would have passed on this game without the wind, but I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather for this game is set to be a big problem for both offenses. The average forecast between 5 different forecasts I looked at here calls for 48 degrees with average winds of 26 mph and gusts above 30 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain showers during this game. These conditions are about as drastic as you will see this time of the year, especially with those wind gusts.

Neither team is efficient at running the football, and with these conditions they will have to run it much more often.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and the Akron Zips meet in a big rivalry game on Saturday in Kent. This one is for the Wagon Wheel trophy. 

Kent State and Akron are both very weak offensively. Kent State has allowed a ridiculous 29 sacks this year. That's worst in the country (130 teams). Akron has a good defensive line and they should be able to get in the backfield and put Kent State behind the chains here. 

The Akron offense ranks 119th in the country in yards per play. Akron is averaging only 3.36 yards per carry on the year. 

Kent State plays quickly, but they aren't efficient at all. Akron's offense severely lacks the big play potential. The Zips have only 6 plays of 30 yards or more all season.

Kent State's defense isn't very good, but this Akron defense is very good. The Zips are 37th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Weather should be an issue here. An average of five forecasts in the Kent area shows temperatures in the upper 40's with winds around 15 mph guesting to 20 mph, and a 50% chance of showers during this game. That's a big plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game I considered passing on because of injuries on the Wisconsin defensive side of the ball, but this number is too with all factors considered. 

Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow tempo. The Badgers rank in the bottom ten in terms of pace of play. Illinois ranks is right around the average when it comes to tempo.

The Illinois offense has been dreadful of late. They scored only 7 points last week against Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been only mediocre on defense this year.

The weather forecast here pushes me over the top on playing this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There are some very strong angles on betting unders with heavy wind, and this is a high total for a Wisconsin game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks are a great over team. UL Monroe is one of the worst defenses in the nation. They are 126th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Warhawks have what is arguably the worst pass defense in the nation. 

Texas State is mediocre defensively. The Bobcats offense is a weakness, but they have shown some very positive signs in recent weeks in the passing game, and I think they will be able to get it going against this UL Monroe pass defense. Texas State has scored 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. 

UL Monroe's offense should light up the scoreboard in the Sun Belt. Monroe has underachieved on offense so far this year. The Warhawks have only scored on 65% of their red zone trips, and they have turned the ball over 13 times. They just posted 45 points on Coastal Carolina and they will score a lot in this conference.

UL Monroe pushes the pace and I think they are likely to have the lead. That forces Texas State to keep the tempo going too.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB Top Play Total of the WEEK* The Clemson Tigers offense is excellent with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. Lawrence is playing with a lot of confidence, and he has a lot of weapons around him. Clemson's coaching staff has talked about wanting to push the tempo even more than they are now. Clemson already ranks 34th in pace of play in the nation. They will push the pace here.

North Carolina State has a very good quarterback in Ryan Finley. Finley is the best quarterback Clemson has faced so far this year. What is Clemson's weakness? Clearly, it is their secondary. The Tigers looked really bad in the secondary against Texas A&M earlier this year, and the NC State passing game should exploit this weakness. 

NC State's defense ranks 66th in yards per play allowed. The Wolfpack are 16th in scoring defense. What does this mean? They are due for some serious regression to the mean. This NC State defense isn't nearly as good as they have looked so far this year. Clemson should move the ball easily here.

Both teams can exploit the other defenses weakness here. The pace will stay quick throughout. 

Take the over. TOP Total of the Week. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday. Maryland is extremely one-dimensional on offense. Maryland has to be able to run the football or they can't move the ball. Maryland ranks 10th in the nation in yards per carry, but they haven't gone against many really good defenses against the run. That all changes when they play against Iowa on Saturday. Iowa is 5th in the nation in ypc allowed at only 2.69. The Hawkeyes are always strong in the front seven on defense, and that is the case again this year.

The tempo for both teams points toward an under. Iowa ranks 105th out of 130 in terms of tempo. Maryland ranks 110th in tempo. What about how often they are running the ball? Maryland runs on 66.4% of their offensive plays. Iowa runs on 57% of their offensive plays. This will mean a lot of moving clock. 

The weather here could be a bonus. The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 20 mph during this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Redskins/Cowboys CASH* The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys meet in what is always a hard fought rivalry contest. Dallas has been playing much better football of late, and Washington is coming off a nice win over Carolina last weekend.

The Dallas defense is the strongest unit on either team. Dallas has been very good on defense all year, and now they get Sean Lee back after he has been out with an injury the last couple weeks. This Cowboys defense is pretty good without Lee this year, but they are elite with him on the field. Lee is one of the most important defenders in the NFL. Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall this year. 

Washington's defense has been solid this year as well. The Redskins gave up a lot to New Orleans in the Superdome, but other than that this unit has been very good. Washington is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season.

Dallas is 25th in yards per play on offense. Washington is 26th in offensive yards per play. These two offenses haven't been consistent at all. Washington has major injury issues on the offensive line, and Dallas should be in the backfield a lot here.

Dallas' passing game isn't good enough, and they rely very heavily on Ezekiel Elliot.

The wind forecast in this game is 15-25 mph early in the game and 12-16 mph by the end of the game. That's plenty to make the teams more conservative. I expect a lot of running clock and a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* Detroit's defense hasn't been impressive at all this year. Detroit has allowed 23 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. The Lions are 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 6.0. 

The Miami Dolphins have a lot of speed on offense. Brock Osweiler will be starting at quarterback again this week. I'm certainly not a big fan of his, but he has some really good speed on the outside, and the Lions lack top end speed in the secondary. 

The Miami defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Cameron Wake is questionable for this game, and he is arguably their best defender. 

Detroit is a very pass-heavy offense, and Miami's pass defense ranks in the bottom 5 in the NFL in all major pass defense categories. Matt Stafford should be able to air it out on this defense.

Helping both offenses is the referee crew. Jerome Bogers' crew will be doing this game. This crew is famous for lots of holding and pass interference penalties on the defense. The over is 90-64 in this crew's 154 games. 

Two bad defenses and offenses with big play ability.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have the top defense in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore is allowing only 4.4 yards per play so far this season. The Ravens defense excels at pressuring the quarterback, as the Titans found out the hard way last weekend. 

This New Orleans offense is clearly very good. Still, the Saints are dealing with the best defense they have played this year. They are also away from the friendly confines of the Superdome. This one will be played on grass in Baltimore in chilly weather. That makes a big difference.

Baltimore's offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all. That allows opponents to get after the passer and the Ravens are too one-dimensional to be a good offense in the NFL.

A big key here is the weather. Across the board the forecasts are for winds around 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Simply betting high totals in windy games is a great way to make money betting the NFL in the long run. The chilly weather and the grass is a negative for the Saints offense as well. 

If the wind is especially bad here, it makes both teams run the ball even more, and that takes away the strengths of these two offenses.

When the total is 47 or higher and the wind is 9 mph or more in New Orleans road games- the under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests. This one fits this system.

Take the under.