*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month, and it isn't even close. The Royals struggle to put together rallies because they just don't have enough big league quality hitters on their roster. 

Zach Plesac has been good so far this year, and he goes up against a weak offense here. Plesac does give up a lot of home runs, but the Royals don't have much power and the conditions aren't favorable for hitting here.

Jakob Junis is an interesting pitcher in that he has drastically different splits in the first half of the season and second half of the season in his career. Junis has a 5.03 ERA and a .349 wOBA allowed in the first half in his career. He has an impressive 3.44 ERA and a .301 wOBA allowed in the second half in his career. He has gone 6 innings or more and allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 8 starts.

The under has done really well at Progressive Field with the wind blowing in. This is a park where the weather plays a larger role than most believe. A cool summer day with the wind blowing in is a big benefit to the under here.

The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Junis' last 5 starts in Cleveland. A combined 10-0 angle. 

*3 Star Play Over* Anytime I see Hector Noesi starting for one team and the total in the game is set this low, I have to look to the over. It doesn't hurt that Vince Velasquez is on the other side either.

Velasquez has a history of pitching his worst late in the season. He's already had a questionable season against this Marlins lineup. Velasquez is giving up far more hard contact this year than he did a year ago. His ERA is lower than last year, but all of the advanced metrics suggest he has been much worse this year. He is due for some regression. The Marlins offense has actually scored 5.45 runs per game in their last 11 home contests.

Noesi is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He went three years without pitching in the majors, and now he is back and getting crushed again as he did back in 2014 and 2015. Noesi wasn't good in the minors earlier this year (5.33 FIP) and now he has allowed 16 runs in less than 16 innings pitched in the majors this year. He's backed by a Marlins bullpen that has the worst FIP in baseball in the last 30 days.

Both teams have the potential to have some big innings in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are really bad on the road. Colorado is 7-22 in their last 29 road games. Peter Lambert has been a big disappointment for the Rockies. Lambert has actually skated by a bit in recent starts despite some ugly signs. He has walked 13 batters and only struck out 9 in his last four starts. Lambert's velocity is down significantly in his last few starts as well.

Jack Flaherty is throwing the ball extremely well right now. How good has he been? Flaherty has allowed a grand total of 5 runs in his last eight starts. Flaherty has a swinging strike rate of a solid 11.9%, and his swinging strike rate has improved in recent starts. He has much better numbers at home in his career than on the road. He also is backed by a top five bullpen in baseball here.

The Rockies bullpen is one of the three or four worst bullpens in baseball, and they will likely need to be used quite a bit in this one.

The Cardinals defense is one of the five or six best in baseball, and that can often be overlooked. The Rockies are a bottom ten defense in the majors. 

The Rockies don't have anything to play for, while the Cardinals have everything to play for and their ace on the mound here.

Take the Cardinals -1.5.