*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are just an awful team this year. Their star running back (Vaughn) is dinged up and is listed as questionable for this game. Vanderbilt has a quarterback controversy. Neither of the quarterbacks are good. 

Missouri is a quality team this year. The Tigers are led by a defense that is 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Missouri is excellent in pass coverage, and they are above average against the run. The Tigers offense is a run heavy offense.

Missouri is very likely to be in control of this game. We have some interesting references of spots where Missouri has a large lead. The Tigers have taken their foot off the gas and had low scoring second halves multiple times.

-Missouri led Troy 42-7 at halftime and the final score was 42-10.

-Missouri led West Virginia 31-0 at halftime and the final score was 38-7

-Missouri led SE Missouri State 37-0 at halftime and the final score was 50-0

Consistently they have had very low scoring 3rd and 4th quarters in games where they lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on North Carolina* The Virginia Tech Hokies have played the 107th toughest schedule in the country according to Sagarin. North Carolina has played the 7th toughest schedule. 

Virginia Tech has one good win this year and that was their win over Miami. Why did they win that game? Miami had 5 turnovers and they had none. Still, they nearly blew that game. Miami outgained them by more than 200 yards in that game.

North Carolina had a bye week to prepare for this game. The Tar Heels have proven in multiple games this year (South Carolina and Clemson games especially) that they have a high upside. Virginia Tech hasn't proven that.

I like the Tar Heels here.

Take North Carolina. 

*4 Star Play on New Mexico* The Wyoming Cowboys have been extremely fortunate this year. Wyoming can't throw the ball at all. The Cowboys do have a solid running game, but the strength of the New Mexico defense is the front seven. They rank 38th in the nation in yards per carry allowed this year. 

Wyoming plays at a slow tempo that often leads to low scoring games and very close games. The Cowboys have seen only one of their games this season decided by more than 9 points. That includes a Wyoming very unimpressive 5 point win over Idaho. 

New Mexico isn't a good team, but we are getting 19.5 points in a game with a total of 48.5. Additionally, the forecast calls for 25 mph winds with gusts above 30 mph during this game. That kind of extreme weather is a bit of an equalizer. Both teams are likely to run the ball a lot and stay even more conservative than normal. Big underdogs in high wind games have done well in the past.

I'll grab the points.

Take New Mexico. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are playing faster this year, but they aren't playing efficiently at all on offense. Michigan is 81st in the nation in yards per play. They are up against a Penn State defense that has been tremendous this season. The Nittany Lions rank 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. I think Michigan will have a hard time putting together sustained drives against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions have a big advantage with their defensive front against the Michigan offensive line.

Penn State's offense hasn't been consistent this year. The Nittany Lions have hit quite a few big plays, but they haven't shown the ability to put together long drives against good defenses. Michigan typically does a good job not giving up big plays, and this will present a challenge for Penn State.

Both teams run the ball a little more than the average team, so we'll see a lot of moving clock. I think this is a game where points will be at a premium. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had a really hard time moving the ball against quality defenses this year. Kentucky is up against a great defense here in Athens. 

Georgia's offense is very good, but they do play at a slow pace and run the football a lot. That means that while they usually move the football a lot, they take a lot of time off the clock as well.

Kentucky plays at the 95th ranked tempo out of 130 teams in the nation. Georgia ranks 113th in tempo. Both of these teams prefer to run the ball when they can.

A tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Athens earlier in the day on Saturday. The rain might stop before the game or it may be light rain here, but there will still be winds of 15 or 16 mph during this game. Additionally, this is a grass field and with rains of over an inch expected during the day on Saturday- the field might not be in very good shape. The weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have the slowest tempo of any team in the nation. Utah ranks 130th out of 130 in pace of play. Utah also likes to run the football early and often. Almost 65% of Utah's offensive plays are running plays. 

Arizona State's defense has been beaten badly in the passing game this year, but they have been good against the run. They haven't played a running attack as good as Utah, so they will give up some yards here. Still, Utah will be taking a lot of time off the clock and if they get held to some field goals it is a big boost for the under.

Arizona State ranks 102nd in yards per carry this year, and Utah's defense ranks the best against the run of any defense they have faced. Michigan State also excels at stopping the run, and they shut down Arizona State's offense.

Neither passing game is very good to begin with, and the weather is a key factor here too. Rain is likely later in this game, and it is expected to be windy throughout the entire game.

With both teams playing slowly and running a lot, I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington State Cougars defense has been awful this year. Washington State is allowing 6.65 ypp on the year. Colorado's defense has been even worse. The Buffaloes are giving up 6.87 ypp. These two have been even worse on defense in Pac 12 play. Washington State is allowing more than 8 yards per play in the conference. 

Both teams like to throw the ball a lot and there should be a lot of possessions in this contest. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers put up 40 points last week with backup quarterback Jack Plummer at the helm and Rondale Moore out of the lineup. That was against a weak Maryland defense though. Purdue couldn't do anything against Penn State's defense, and I'll be surprised if they have much success here against a good Iowa defense.

Moore is one of the most electrifying players in the country, and him being out is a huge loss for Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per carry, so they don't have a running game to lean on. Iowa is 16th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's offense has some potential, but they play a pretty conservative brand of football. The Hawkeyes play at a slow pace and there shouldn't be too many possessions in this game as they grind things down when they are in the lead.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Michigan is second in the nation in explosive plays of 20 yards or more. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone though, and this is a team that is due for some positive regression when it comes to points per game. Western Michigan's offense is elite, and they aren't playing against even decent defenses in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan has been even worse in the red zone than the Broncos. The Eagles also should have some positive regression on the way. The Eagles are throwing the ball around a lot more this year and Western Michigan's defense has allowed a whopping 108 plays of 10 yards or more already this year.

Both teams should have a lot of offensive success here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Oklahoma State* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been a really good team to back in past years. Mike Gundy has been a moneymaker for bettors, especially early in the season. In the first 9 games of the season, Oklahoma State is 75-50 ATS in their last 125 games (60% ATS). At home, Oklahoma State is 45-27 (62.5% ATS) in their first 9 games of the season since 2005. 

Baylor just lost star linebacker Johnston for the season. He was averaging about 10 tackles per game this year and he was the leader of the defense. Baylor is coming off a double overtime game where coach Matt Rhule said the team in general left the game very banged up. Charlie Brewer isn't very healthy either, and he is a key to this offense for the Bears.

Oklahoma State had a bye week last week. The last game Oklahoma State played they had a -5 turnover margin and lost. This is a good bounce back spot for a team with a lot of talent and a good home field advantage. 

Take Oklahoma State.