Freddy Wills Freddy Wills

Don't miss out on the 2018 College Football Season with Freddy Wills. He was #1 CFB Handicapper in 20019 and 2011, and #6 in 2013!

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2018 College Football Package

Freddy enters his 10th season handicapping professionally, and is coming off a rare losing season in 2017.  In fact it was just his 2nd season in the red in 9 years.  Don't miss out on all of Freddy's action in 2018.  Freddy is a 2x NCAA-F #1 rated handicapper on this network and looks to get back to that in 2018. 

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16-6 ATS last year on NFL POD's & 81-55 career on MAX POD's in CFB! 

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Maryland vs Iowa
Maryland
+9 -105 at 5Dimes
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Maryland +275 1.5% Play 

I think there is good value here when you factor in that Iowa won't be able to take advantage of their obvious offensive strength which is passing the ball.  Iowa's running game is 87th in the country and they'll be going up against Maryland's 13th ranked run defense.  There will be 24mph winds in this game, and this game is going to come down to who can run better, and I'm back Maryland here with some excellent value as they rank 7th in rushing yards per carry going up against an obviously good Iowa run defense which ranks 11th, but Maryland obviously has the athletes here. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Michigan vs Michigan State
Michigan State
+7 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Michigan State +7 3.3% play

This could not set up any better for the Spartans who are getting disrespected all over the place despite being 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, 10-0 ATS.  The weather is the bigger reason why I'm backing the Spartans on Saturday as it's going to be rainy, and windy, and Jim Harbough already struggled to come up with an innovative offensive play in regular weather.  He has also been super conservative in these types of games which always tends to come down to a field goal, and the total here is 41 points which gives us more value on the +7 for the home dog.

Michigan State has very quietly played the tougher schedule having faced an average defense ranking 50th in yards per play, compared to Michigan's offense that has faced #68.  Michigan State's defense on average has faced #50.8 offense ypp, while Michigan has faced 56.2.  Michigan State's weakness right now is in the secondary, but I don't know how much we can see Michigan taking advantage of it.  Right now they feel really good about their running game hammering it 60% of the time, and the weather should be a big reason why they don't challenge Michigan State's secondary. 

Michigan State's run defense is #1 in the country and tested facing an average offense ranking 53.8.  That's better than Michigan's run defense that ranks an impressive #12 against a #56.  Michigan State's offense however can be more creative, and take advantage of some of the aggressive play calling of Don Brown's defense.  We have seen it before with the Spartans and it's just an example of better coaching.  They also have the WR in Felton Davis who can make plays.  If you recall SMU's James Proche had 11 receptions for 166 yards against Michigan's secondary.

Honestly, what has Michigan really proven other than the fact that Jim Harbough is a bully, and he can beat bad teams.  They struggled against Northwestern, so did Michigan State.  They struggled against Notre Dame with extra preparation and a lot of pressure.  They have more pressure here, and that Notre Dame team was extremely one dimensional with their QB at the time in Wimbush.  Michigan State has 2 losses, I'm giving them a pass for the 4th quarter melt down at Arizona State where it was 97 degrees and the game didn't end until 3pm local time.  Northwestern also came back in the 4th quarter chucking the ball 47 times for 373 yards, and unless the weather changes I don't see Harbough letting Shea Patterson do the same thing.  I'm more impressed with their win at Penn State, who was off a bye last week.  Michigan State will continue to play the little brother card, and it will work again.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Connecticut vs South Florida
Connecticut
+34 -106 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Uconn +34 1.1% Free Play 

Close your eyes and back the Huskies this week.  They are off a bye, and going against an inflated number considering they are 0-5-1 ATS, but there are some things to like here as they go up against South Florida, who is ranked in the top 25, and we all know they are not a top 25 team.  South Florida has a much bigger game on deck at Houston.  Uconn has by far played a tougher schedule, and that has resulted in some very poor defensive statistics and offensive statistics. Uconn has faced on average an offensive YPP team ranking 27th in the country.  That's just insane and when you put that in perspective South Florida's defense has faced #76.8.  On offense, Uconn' has faced an average defense ranking 47.2 in YPP defense, while South Florida has faced #91.  No wonder the statistics are so lopsided. 

The Huskies should be able to move the ball a bit here on the ground. That is the one thing Uconn has been able to do, and that's a hole in South Florida's defense as they rank 88th defending the run.  Uconn has a mobile QB in David Pindell here who should be able to move the ball.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Auburn vs Ole Miss
Auburn
-3½ -101 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Auburn -3.5 2.2% play

I like Auburn here who we are obviously buying low on after they lost back to back games, and everyone is rumoring that Gus Malzahn is out if he loses this game.  I think he gets a full effort from his team against a team that may just not care. Ole MIss can’t go to a bowl game, they just lost their #2WR in DK Metcalf to a neck injury for the season, and they have struggled on offense when they face elite defenses.  Auburn’s defense once was elite, and you could see them play that way here on Saturday. Auburn can still stop the run ranking 35th, and against they rank 25th. I think they can double cover A.J Brown and force Jordan Ta’amu to beat them another way.

On the flip side I think Auburn can give this a full effort before going into their bye.  I’m not going to go crazy about their loss to Tennessee last week who was off a bye themselves.  Jarret Stidham who I have criticized on my podcast just got down throwing for 300 yards for the first time.  He is now facing an Ole MIss secondary that ranks 90th in QB Rating defense, and that rating comes against an average opponent QB rating of 75.16.  Expecting a big game from Stidham who should finally have the balance of the running game as Ole Miss ranks 91st vs. the run. I think we have motivation on the side of Auburn, and we are getting line value for Auburn’s recent play, and their offense finally should get going here.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Mississippi State vs LSU
Mississippi State
+6½ -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Miss State +6.5 2.2% play 

Both of these teams are pretty similar in the fact that they want to run the ball and try to do so at 60% of the time.  Neither team has an efficient QB, and that makes the running game that much more important. I think MIss State has the advantage being fresher off the bye while LSU just played 3 SEC games in a row with the last 2 coming against physical opponents Georgia and Florida.  LSU’s run defense which will be the key here showed some vulnerabilities against Florida where they gave up over 200 yards. Miss State held Florida to 118 yards. The only team able to run the ball on Miss State was Kentucky, and Kentucky has a much better rushing attack and a mobile QB in Terry Wilson.  Nick Fitzgerald was finally turned loose with 20+ carries against Auburn, and since they had the bye I see the same thing here as Fitzgerald has to be fresh. Nobody ran for more rushing yards against LSU last year than MIss State who ran for 285 on them.

 

Let’s take a look at the how LSU and Miss State stack up in the running game.  Miss State ranking 6th in yards per carry have faced an average opponent defensive ypc of 68.4, here they face LSU’s #48th rank, and LSU’s rushing defense has only faced an average opponent ranking 55th in rushing offense.  This is the best rushing offense they have seen all year. LSU’s rushing ranks 43rd, and they have gotten that done against #58 defense, and here they’ll place a battle tested MIss State run defense that ranks 42nd. Miss State has faced a bevy of quality rushing offenses ranking on average 31.6.  When we look at their loss to Kentucky we can see Kentucky is far better, and has faced a far tougher rushing offense/rushing defense schedule than LSU. It’s understandable that Miss State struggled in that game. Miss State’s defense has the front speed that can set the edge led by MOntez Sweat. Although Joe Burrow ran for 60+ yards last week he is not a threat, and the majority of that came on one play.  

I also expect Miss State will be able to throw a few new wrinkles into this game off a bye.  Joe Moorehead also a first year head coach and that bye is always more valuable to a first year coach following the bye.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Buffalo vs Toledo
Buffalo
-1 -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Buffalo -1 3.3% play

We did not get the best of this line unfortunately, but still feel great about Buffalo here. There will be 15mph winds, and some light rain, and the total has dropped 6 points. I have Buffalo a favorite here, and I expect they will win.

 Both teams rely on the running game 58% of the time, and need to in a game like this where the weather will be a factor. Buffalo is just better at the line of scrimmage as Toledo #121 in stopping the run, and that's against a weak schedule facing teams who on average rank 72.6 in rushing yards per carry. Buffalo comes into this game ranked 41st in rushing yards per carry leaning heavily on two freshman backs. On the flip side Toledo 44th in rushing yards per carry, but they're going up against a Buffalo run defense that ranks 50th. Although Buffalo has faced an easy schedule in terms of rushing attacks they faced ranking on average 87th they have gotten the job done, and their pass defense is even better.   At some point these two teams are going to have to put the ball in the air, and extreme advantage Buffalo when you factor in Buffalo's 15th ranked pass defense vs. Toledo's 103rd ranked defense. I spoke about controlling the line of scrimmage. Well Buffalo 1st in sack % allowed going up against the Toledo's pass rush defense that is 125th in sack %. Buffalo ranks 33rd in sack % going up against a Toledo 118th sack % allowed. There is a reason why Toledo ranks 74th in TO margin per game and Buffalo is 27th, another advantage to Buffalo.   Finally, these two had one common game in Eastern Michigan. Buffalo won by a TD at home and they were +1.25 yards per play, +9% success rate while Toledo played last week were down 28-3 at one point and Eastern Michigan lost their QB in the 2nd Q, allowing Toledo to get back in that game in misleading fashion. They were -1.99 yards per play, -8% success rate
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky
Kentucky
-11½ -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Kentucky -11

If you have been following me this year you know I am a fan of Kentucky backing them against Florida and Texas A&M.  This is a great matchup for Kentucky coming off a bye where Vanderbilt is off back to back physical games in SEC play where they were dominated at the line of scrimmage.  Kentucky will also get another night game at home, and the weather favors their style of play as there will be 15mph winds.

 

Vanderbilt’s strength is their QB play of Kyle Shurmur as they throw the ball 53% of the time.  I don’t see him being as effective here. For one he is going up against the 8th ranked pass defense, and 29th ranked pass rush, but the wind will keep this game more on the ground.  Vanderbilt is 58th in yards per carry and have faced a run defense ranked 58.3 on average. Here they face the #22 defense which has been tested having faced #48.4.

 

Kentucky, off the bye and not only do they have a dominating running back in Benny Snell, but they have a mobile QB in Terry Wilson which is something that Vanderbilt has not faced this year.  Kentucky will run the ball over 65% of the time which is their average so their game plan in the weather won’t have to change much. They’ll go up against a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks 86th.  This running game that is 16th in yards per carry is well tested having faced #54.8 on average.

 

These two have common opponents in SEC play and Vanderbilt played both of those games at home against Florida and South Carolina.  It’s obvious that Kentucky is the better team as they outgained those two opponents by 120 yards while Vanderbilt was outgained by 490 yards, and Kentucky has to play Florida on the road.  Vanderbilt also -24% success rate in the Florida game last week so their 10 point loss was actually really misleading as they should have lost by more.

Vanderbilt has struggled big time in conference play, and we are still getting value here on Kentucky in my opinion who should control the line of scrimmage.  VAnderbilt in 3 SEC games between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina were outgained on the ground 261-112 on average. Compare that with Kentucky who faced Florida Miss State, South Carolina and they outgained them on the ground on average of 242-104.  Expect 300+ yards on the ground for Kentucky as they wear out Vanderbilt in the second half and win this one by 3TD’s.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 20, 2018
Wake Forest vs Florida State
Wake Forest
+10½ -110 at YouWager
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Wake Forest +10.5 4.4% play

What has Florida State proven to show that they should be a double digit favorite?  They nearly upset Miami, I get that, but they only had 200 yards in that game of total offense.  Florida State should have lost to an awful Louisville team teh week before that, and they were dominated on the road against a slightly above average Syracuse team.  Meanwhile Wake Forest comes off a game where they were embarrassed by a hungry Clemson team. They too are off a bye, and have played Florida State well and tight the last few years.

 

Wake Forest, by far has faced the stronger schedule having faced Notre Dame, Clemson, and BC.  Florida State has one of the worst offensive lines in the country. They have faced an average run defense ranking 95.4, and they rank 128th in the country in rushing yards per carry.  Many will point out WAke Forest’s 126th ranking, but they have faced a lot of great rushing attacks thus far ranking on average 61st in yards per carry. They have only given up 2 rushing TD’s all season if you take away the Notre Dame & Clemson games where they gave up 12.

Offensively I think Wake Forest has balance and their up-tempo style should allow them to move the ball and score points in this game.  The Florida State defense is good vs. the run, but they have faced teams that can’t run the ball, and they are giving up a ton of yards on defense ranking 51st in QB rating defense they have faced on average a QB rated offense ranking 88.4.  This game means much more to Wake Forest who wants to get to a bowl game Dave Clawson 16-11-1 ATS following a SU loss. Meanwhile Florida State has a game against Clemson at home next.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Panthers vs Eagles
Eagles
-5 -105 at 5Dimes
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Eagles -5 2.2% play 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Patriots vs Bears
Bears
+120 at Bovada
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Bears +8 / Redskins +7.5 3.3% Teaser

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Cowboys vs Redskins
Redskins
+110 at 5Dimes
Won
$110
Play Type: Premium

Bears +8 / Redskins +7.5 3.3% Teaser

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Texans vs Jaguars
Jaguars
-4 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Jaguars -4 4.4% play 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Titans vs Chargers
Titans
+7 -110 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Titans +7 -125 3% play - buy up to 7

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 21, 2018
Saints vs Ravens
Ravens
-2½ -117 at pinnacle
Lost
$117.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Ravens -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2018
Nevada vs Hawaii
Nevada
+3 -106 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Nevada +3 3.3% Play

This is Hawaii's 9th straight game traveling back and forth from Island can take it's toll.  Here they get a Nevada team hungry for a win after facing the conference's two best teams in Fresno and Boise State.  They got their QB Ty Gangi back in last week's game against Boise State and he looked excellent throwing for more than 300 yards.  Nevada here has by far the better defense when we look at the fact that they rank 72nd in yards per play allowed facing an average offense ranking 67.8 in yards per play.  Compare that with Hawaii who ranks 102nd and has faced opponents ranking 102.5 in yards per play on offense.

Both of these teams want to pass the ball, but it may come down to the running game, and Nevada has a distinct advantage here.  Nevada ranks 53rd in rushing yards per carry and will go up against a defense that ranks 83rd, that defense has not seen many teams that can run the ball on average 91st in ypc.  On the flip side Nevada is 38th in stopping the run.  I think this will allow Nevada to get Hawaii into some third and longs, and they have a good enough pass rush to give Hawaii issues and force some TO's.  Hawaii QB's have been sacked 21 times this year and they rank 77th in sack % allowed.  That has come against very weak pass rushes ranking on average 93rd in sack %.  Nevada comes in at #59, led by NFL Prospect Malik Reed, 5 sacks on the year.  There is a reason why Hawaii ranks 100th in TO margin.  They haven't been able to protect McDonald, and that's been against poor defenses.  On average Hawaii has faced a defense ranking 88 in yards per play, 100th in opposing QB rating.  Add it all up and I think Nevada will be a live dog. 

SERVICE BIO

Season Awards: This network is one of the most competitive network of handicappers with over 90 professional experts.  2009 & 2011 I was the #2 handicapper for the entire year!  I also have had several top 10 finishes including, #1 NCAAF 2009, #1 NCAAF 2011, #2 MLB 2009, #5 NFL 2010, #6 NCAAF 2013, #7 NCAAB 2012, and #10 MLB 2011.   

My Promise To You: All of my information is 100% backed by a guarantee and is fully researched and supported by my in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I personally bet these plays too so it is only fair you understand my logic.

Who Am I: I have been wagering on sports for more than a decade and I've been doing it professionally for 5 years. In 2008 I started my own service and have been earning my clients an impressive return on investment which is solidified by multiple national handicapping season awards for MLB and College Football. This is something I take very seriously. That is why every single recommendation I make comes with a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I want you to know my logic behind ever one of my picks.

Best Moments: In 2011 I predicted Iowa State +28.5 over Oklahoma State on a Friday night, but not only did I predict and play the spread I also predicted Iowa State to win the game outright as a 22:1 under dog. Iowa State won in over time to shock the nation and knock Oklahoma State out of the BCS National Championship race. Aside from that I have profited in every single of every sport on my signature play of the day's (POD's).

My Motto: "The will to win is nothing without the will to prepare."