This gam fits a situation that has an ROI of +13.9% and the play is on the over.

Matt Campbell sure has upgraded the Iowa St. football program. He has an NFL caliber QB, and the Cyclones are no longer the doormat of the Big-12 Conference. Looking at their opener against Louisiana may have a lot of people doubting the Cyclones, but that was a total fluke. Iowa St. gained more yards, had more first downs, but ended up losing by 17. The last 10,000+ NCAAF games shows that if a team has more total yards along with more first downs, they win 84.2% of the time, and cover 62.7% of the time at home. They lose by 17 or more points just 2% of all games. The reason was Iowa St. gave up a 95 yard kickoff return, an 83 yard punt return, a 78 yard broken coverage passing TD, and for good measure a TD in the last 10 seconds. It is one of those games you just forget about, and move on. TCU has dealt with covid issues, and this will be their first game of the season. I like the upside here with Iowa St. and a pro caliber QB, vs a backup for TCU, who has not seen the field yet. Make the play on Iowa St.

The Kentucky Wildcats have been a long time doormat in the SEC, but things are changing. Kentucky has put together 4 straight winning seasons, and a 5th would be the most in over 40 years. They have won 3 or more conference games 4 straight seasons, the most in over 40 years as well. Kentucky has not beaten a team from the SEC West on the road since 2009. Kentucky has a very strong offensive line, and also the return of QB Terry Wilson, who led them to 10 wins in 2018, before tearing an ACL last year in game 2. The line is the place to watch and between offense and defense, Auburn lost 7 linemen. Kentucky will have a strong defense, and I think this game is a lot closer than it looks. Make the play on Kentucky.

The Liberty Flames are now under the direction of Hugh Freeze. Hugh Freeze is 57-34 ATS in his career, and is now with his 3rd team. he has been one of the top coaches in the country in that respect. his Liberty team was expected to take a fall this season, but he brought in Auburn transfer Malik Willis to play QB. Willis ran for 168 yards and 3 TDs last week, and added 133 in the air, so he was personally responsible for over 300 yards of offense. When the QB is good, the team usually plays and looks better. The Flames out-gained W. Kentucky by just under 200 yards. Enter FIU. FIU lost their QB to the NFL, and overall are one of the least experienced teams in the country, and to make matters worse, this team has dealt with covid issues, and this will be their first game. Liberty is a surprising 2-0 and FIU has yet to step on the field breaking in a new QB, and a lot of players missing key practice time due to covid. Make the play on Liberty.