I'm playing on New Mexico/Utep OVER the total. Given the pace that the Lobos are playing at, I believe this O/U line is too low. New Mexico has scored 90 or more points in all four of its games. The Lobos also allowed 70 or more in all four games. Overall, the Lobos are averaging 93 ppg, while allowing an average of 74.7. Utep checks in averaging 76.7 ppg of its own. Consider that the O/U line was 155 when these teams met last season. Yet, they combined for 162. The previous year, the O/U line was 146 but the teams combined for 164. The year before that? The O/U line was just 138 but they already had 86 by halftime and ultimately combined for 165. While this is their first game on the road this season, its worth noting that the OVER is a perfect 7-0 the past 2+ seasons, when the Lobos played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. With both teams putting up a good number, expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. In a battle of bad teams, I expect home ice to prove the difference. I actually said the same thing, essentially, when these teams met at Ottawa less than a month ago, as I successfully backed the Sens in that one. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "The Senators could badly use a victory. Here, they've got a team which they can match up well against along with the venue and schedule in their favor. While the Sens come in rested, the Wings hosted Vancouver last night. The Wings lost 2-1 less than a week ago, when playing the second of b2b games ... Opportunities like this one don't come around that often for the Sens. Look for them to make the most of it." Tonight, however, the Wings are rested, at home and playing with revenge. They beat the Sens the last meeting here at Detroit and I expect them to finish on top once again.  

I'm playing on NASHVILLE. While I respect the Jets, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Preds are too talented to continue to lose. They also tend to elevate their game against top tier competition as they're 29-11 (+17.4) in 40 games against winning teams, in the first half of the season, the past two years. Playing on home ice, desperate for a victory, I expect them to elevate their level of play and look for them to stop the bleeding. 

I'm playing VANCOUVER on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) These teams just met at Vancouver, less than a week ago. The Stars won 4-2. I expect the revenge-minded Canucks, who are desperate for a win, to give their hosts all they can handle here. While we have to pay a lot for it, the value of an extra +1.5 goals is huge. The Canucks are off a 1-goal loss. Each of their past four games have been decided by two or less, two of those by a goal. Ditto for the Stars. They're off four straight games decided by two goals or less, two of those decided by a single goal. Prior to last week's 4-2 game, these teams had played three straight 1-goal games against each other. I expect another close one, the visitors earning AT LEAST a "puck-line cover."

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. These teams met on opening night at Phoenix. I released a big play on the Suns and they came through for me with a decisive victory. They continued to roll for a long time after that, too. They've started to cool off now though and they're off a blowout loss against Boston last night. The Kings, on the other hand, have gone the other way. Off their opening loss at Phoenix, they really struggled for some time, going 0-5 SU/ATS their first five. They've covered every single game since then though, a 7-0 ATS (5-2 SU) run. Schedule and venue in their favor and playing with revenge from the opener, I expect the Kings to keep on rolling for at least one more night, improving to a perfect 8-0 ATS in November. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. I won with the Wildcats in their last game. I noted that they were a very talented and experienced that was looking to explode, after a poor start. They did exactly that, destroying UNC-Wilmington. Nevada is probably a bit stronger than the Seahawks but is still a team that Davidson will be able to handle. I expect Davidson to carry its positive momentum to be carried forward. Note that the Wolfpack are off a double-digit loss and that they'll now be playing their first game on the road. While the Wildcats brought back their entire starting lineup from last season, the Wolfpack lost their entire starting lineup. They've got a new coach with a fairly big name (Alford) but he got a late start in recruiting and two of the players he signed are Div 1 transfers and have to sit out a season. In other words, Davidson has a vast edge in experience and depth. Expect it be to evident tonight as the Wildcats deliver another blowout. 

I'm playing the OVER in the Bowling Green/Ohio game. The last time these teams met here, they combined for 78 points, Ohio winning 48-30. A similar score tonight won't surprise. The Falcons are not good defensively. Their last three opponents, not named Akron, have scored 38, 49 and 44 points against them. They allow an average of 34.3 ppg in MAC play, to go along with 465.7 yards. Consider that the Bobcats have scored 34 or more points in four of their last five games. While they won't be able to stop Ohio, playing at home, the Falcons should at least be able to score some points. They've scored 20 or more in each of their last three here, 35 in their most recent. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the Falcons were off a loss of six or fewer points, 3-0 the last three. Expect offensive fireworks. 

Im playing on NIU. While neither team is exactly stout defensively, the Huskies have the edge in that department. They allow 27.9 ppg (12.3 at home!) and 386.2 (217.3 at home!) yards. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, allows 31.3 ppg and 435.2 ypg. The Eagles got a big win last time out. However, that was at Akron. Now, they're playing their second straight on the road, while taking a considerable step up in class. While we have to go back some time, note that the Eagles are 3-9 ATS the past dozen times they were off a double-digit conference win and 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) when off a conference win of 21 or more. The Huskies have been to seven of the last nine MAC title games. They still have a shot to get back but would need to win out and get some help. Either way, in order for them to be bowl eligible, they need to win both this game and the next. They found a way to beat Toledo, eking out a 3-point win. They're 11-3 the past 14 times that they were off a win of three or less, 3-1 (SU and ATS) the past four. Speaking of close wins, the Huskies have won the last two between these teams by scores of 26-23 and 30-27. Back home and desperate for a victory, expect them to find a way once again. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Tough start for both teams; I expect homecourt to prove the difference this evening. The Bulls have won a couple at home, the Pistons are just 1-6 on the road. The Bulls already beat the Pistons (by 6) here a few weeks ago. They were favored by -4 points for that one. Yet, even though the Pistons have dropped four straight, the pointspread is no longer a factor. I believe that the Pistons do have some winnable games in their near future. Just not tonight. 

I'm playing on MONTREAL. Playing at home and off a loss last night, with Ottawa off a rare road win last night, I expect Montreal to be the more motivated team tonight. The Canadiens are 48-36 (+7) against losing teams the past couple of seasons. During the same span, the Sens are 33-59 (-11.2) against winning teams. The Habs have won four of five, including three straight in the series. With the Sens just 10-27 their last 37, when playing the second of b2b games, expect another win for Montreal. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Off a tough road trip, the Nets came into their current 3-game homestand, games against the Pacers, Hornets and Kings, thinking that they really needed to go at least 2-1 and hopefully 3-0. However, they already got hammered by the Pacers in the first game. I believe thats going to lead to an extremely motivated effort tonight. While these teams split four meetings overall last season, the Nets have had plenty of success against Southeast teams overall; they're 23-13 SU/ATS against that division the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 14-8-1 ATS when off a loss by 15 or more. Catching Charlotte, which is 7-18-4 ATS off a loss of 15 or more, off a 36-point loss against the champs, expect the Nets to bounce back with their best effort, en route to a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing Toledo/Buffalo UNDER the total. These teams saw last year's game stay below the number by double-digits. The Rockets managed a mere eight first downs for the game. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Bulls lost their last game and that typically results in them playing a lower-scoring game next time out. The UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that they were off a conference loss, 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were off a conference ATS loss. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 22-11, excluding pushes, when the Bulls were off a road loss in MAC play. With Buffalo allowing an average of only 292.8 yards per game, ninth best in the entire country, I expect Toledo to again have trouble moving the ball, the final score again staying below the total. 

I'm playing on Missouri/Morehead State OVER the total. When these teams met last season, at Missouri, the O/U line was 139. They ended up combining for 136. This evening, we're working with a lower O/U number and I feel thats providing plenty of value. Morehead State had trouble scoring last year but I expect some more points out of the Eagles in this one. They've scored 76 or more in all four games and are averaging 83.7 ppg. While the opposition was admittedly very weak, it still helps to give the shooters confidence. They've hit 51% of their field goals. Jordan Walker has led the team in scoring each of the past two seasons and he's back and doing so again. Of course, Missouri has plenty of advantages and should put up a big number of its own. The Tigers had 45 by halfitme in last year's game and would have finished with more than 75 if it hadn't been a blowout out of the gate. The Eagles, who are 19 point underdogs as I write this, have seen the OVER go a perfect 3-0 the past couple of seasons, as road underdogs in the 18.5 to 24 range. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Washington/NYR UNDER the total. Washington's last game finished at 5-2 but could have easily been lower-scoring. That makes it six straight Washington games which have produced seven or fewer goals. The Caps last visit to MSG resulted in a 3-2 final. While Washington's games overall have been high-scoring this season, divisional games are averaging less than five combined goals, 75% of them staying below the total. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.