I'm playing TB/Dallas UNDER the total. While we saw a high-scoring Game 3, I believe we're due for a low-scoring Game 4. The UNDER is still 12-5-4 in Tampa "neutral site" games. With the Lightning now ahead two games to one, note that the UNDER is also 7-2-1 when TB was leading in a playoff series. Yes, the Stars gave up a bunch (5) of goals last game. However, keep in mind that the UNDER is 16-9-1 on the seasons, when they'd allowed four or more goals in their previous game, a 14-7-1 UNDER mark when they were off a loss by two or more goals. Expect a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing BOSTON on the money-line. This was never going to be an easy series, for either team. While the Heat have impressed, don't expect Boston to go down without a fight. The last time that this team was facing elimination (Game 7 against Toronto) it responded by holding the defending champs to just 87 points. The Heat may get more than that but I still expect the Celtics to deliver their best defensive effort of the series. The Celtics are still 46-18 SU when listed as an ATS favorite. Expect them to dig deep and find a way to extend the series.

I'm playing on TB. I've backed the Lightning a number of times throughout these playoffs and am coming back with them this evening. I've mentioned that I feel Tampa is the stronger team in this series and I believe that we've seen that. Since a bad opening period of the series, Tampa has taken over. Off a 5-2 win last time out, note that the Lightning are an outstanding 73-35 (+14.8) the past couple of seasons, when off a win by two or more goals. The Stars have been resilient and have obviously done a great job to get this far. They'll fight hard tonight but ultimately I believe that they'll again be overmatched. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While the Sox had started to play better, Baltimore cooled them off yesterday. Now, they step up in class to face a Braves team still looking to lock down the #2 seed in the NL. Note that Boston is 11-23 off a loss. Atlanta also lost yesterday. However, the Braves have been much at bouncing back. They're 17-7 after losing their previous game. Wright is off b2b quality starts and he was dominant last time out. Through 6 1/3 shutout innings, he allowed just a single hit. He had six K's against one walk. Mazza, on the other hand, had three walks against one strikeout in his last start, allowing four runs (2 earned) in four innings. Atlanta bullpen with far superior numbers. Braves roll. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. With a motivated Scherzer on the mound, the Nats will have the advantage in this one. The former Cy Young winner will be hungry to pick up the "W" in this, his final start of the season. Not only would he like to put the final dagger in the Mets' playoff hopes but by getting a victory, Scherzer would finish with a winning record for the 11th season in a row. That would tie him with Kerhshaw for the longest active streak. He's currently 4-4 with a 3.67 ERA. Porcello, on the other hand, is 1-6 with a 5.46 ERA. Scherzer got the better of Porcello in a 2-1 Washington win the last time that these two opposed each other. Expect him to do so again this evening. 

I'm playing on NY. The Marlins have overachieved this season and put themselves in position to potentially clinch a playoff spot, while visiting here in NY. It would a good story, considering that manager Mattingly was an MVP for the Yankees but never made it to the postseason. Unfortunately, for Mattingly and co, they're overmatched this evening. Off b2b losses, the Yankees are going to be hungry to get back on track - they're certainly not about to hand anything to Mattingly. Admittedly, Alcantara has pitched well of late. However, Happ has been even better. He's got a dominant 1.40 ERA and 0.776 WHIP his past three starts, averaging better than six innings per start. Last time out, Happ tossed eight shutout innings, striking out nine. He allowed only four hits and didn't walk a batter. Note that Miami is just 6-12 against southpaws. As for the price tag, keep in mind that the Yanks are a perfect 8-0 as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range. With Happ on a roll, expect them to bounce back with a win to start this series. 

I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. 

I'm playing on Miami/Boston UNDER the total. With games in this series continuing to go over the total, we're now working with the highest O/U number that we've seen yet. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Yes, Tyler Herro seemingly hit everything last game and yes, there are some other very capable offensive players. However, make no mistake, these are also still very stingy teams. Prior to this series, the Heat had allowed 104 or fewer points in four of their previous six games. This, despite playing Milwaukee in their previous series. Meanwhile, Boston had 104 or less in five of six, prior to this series, and 106 or less in seven of eight, prior to this series. The Celtics have still seen the UNDER go 9-5-1 in the playoffs; I expect those stats to improve Friday night. 

I'm playing on NY. Off yesterday's loss, their third straight, expect the Yankees to be all business this afternoon. Three of Garcia's five starts, including his lone home start, have been of the quality variety. He went seven innings in that one and has a 3.86 ERA and 1.143 WHIP to show for it. That's more than Rogers has done all season. Only one of his six starts, none of his past three, have been quality - and he went six innings in that one. Since that lone quality start, Rogers has really struggled. Over his past three starts, he's got a horrible 12.60 ERA and 2.40 WHIP. Needless to say, the Yanks are licking their chops. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Yankees have fared well as home favorites in this range. I say they bounce back. Big. 

I'm playing on MAN. U. Clearly, Manchester United has an edge in talent. Looking for their first points of the season and off a disappointing result, I also expect them to be extremely motivated. As Ole Gunnar Solskjaer noted: "They’re getting better and fitter and sharper We will get better and better, and fitter and fitter. But we can’t wait and say ‘well, we’ll get fit in 3 weeks’ time’. We need to get going straight away." The Seagulls won 3-0 at Newcastle United on Sunday, an impressive win for them. However, they haven't recorded back-to-back league wins since November 2019. Also, the victory was costly as they will now be without midfielder Yves Bissouma. He's serving the second part of a three-match suspension after being sent off in the Newcastle game. Remember, there was a lot of optimism surrounding this United team, after they went on a 14-game undefeated streak to close last season. Don't write the Red Devils off due to one sub-par performance. They'll bounce back here. 

I'm playing on G-Tech/Syracuse OVER the total. The Yellow Jackets gave up 49 points themselves last week, that game hitting the 70 mark. Syracuse, obviously, isn't UCF. However, I still think that this number will prove to be too low. The reality is that these are probably the two worst tams in the conference. Or, at least, two of the worst. When facing stiffer competition, they're both likely to have trouble scoring at times. However, a game against a fellow "lightweight" provides an opportunity for both offenses to get healthy. These teams have only played twice since 2004. In both cases, G-Tech scored more than 50 points. I say they combine for more than 50 on Saturday afternoon, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number.