10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on under Rangers/Orioles. Cole Hamels has been brilliant for the Rangers of late, while Wade Miley has been a disaster for the Orioles. While Hamels likely isn’t as good as his recent record would indicate, I also believe that Miley’s recent slide isn’t entirely indicative of his overall play either. Hamels (4-0, 3.05 ERA) most recently went 7.2 shutout innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Saturday (was the second straight start that Hamels has gone 7.2 scoreless innings.) Hamels has been spectacular in July, posting a 1.26 ERA and elite 12:1 K:BB. Miley (4-8, 5.40) was rocked for seven runs off nine hits and four walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a setback to the Cubs on Saturday (while he’s just 2-4 in Baltimore, Miley does own a 4.63 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.) The Rangers have seen the total go under the number in 11 of 18 against southpaws this year, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in 18 of 29 against lefties. This number is just a little high, play the under.

6* BM BLOWOUT SPECIAL on Kansas City Royals (RUN-LINE). I think Danny Duffy and the home side offer great value on the RUN-LINE this evening. The Tigers turn to Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06 ERA) who gave up one run over eight innings in a victory over the Blue Jays on Saturday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Fulmer, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with Duffy (5-6, 3.51) who enters off his best start of the 2017 campaign by giving up one earned run while striking out four over 8.1 innings in an unfortunate loss to the Rangers on Saturday (note that he’s 2-3 with a 2.41 ERA at home.) Additionally note that Detroit is just 12-19 (-7.2 units) this year on the road when the money line is between +125 and -125, while KC is 18-16 (+2.8 units) at home when the money line is between the same range. As stated off the top, great value on Duffy and the Royals RUN-LINE.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE the Red Sox. All things being equal between these struggling starters, I think home field advantage will prove to be the difference for the hard-hitting Red Sox this afternoon. Toronto turns to Francisco Liriano (5-5, 6.04 ERA) who has been absolutely atrocious of late, posting a 7.04 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and 39 K’s over his last 47.1 frames of work (is just 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA on the road.) Doug Fister (0-3, 6.75) hasn’t been much better for the Red Sox, he most recently gave up three runs off four hits while striking out one over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Saturday. It was just an “appearance” though, coming in at the bottom of the 14th inning (so far he’s 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in all “day” games.) The Blue Jays though have been horrible on the road this year, just 21-26 (-4.4 units), while the Red Sox have excelled at home by going 28-17 (+3.7 units). As stated off the top, I think all things being equal, this one clearly favors Boston. Red Sox roll.

8* ANNIHILATOR on the Pittsburgh Pirates. I like the home side to build off its 3-2 victory yesterday. The Brewers turn to Jimmy Nelson (8-4, 3.27 ERA) who received a no-decision against the Phillies on Saturday despite giving up two runs off three hits over 6.2 innings. Nelson has been very solid this year and it’s hard to point out too many flaws, however note that he owns a poor 4.70 ERA on the road thus far. Jameson Taillon (5-3, 3.06) gave up four runs while striking out five in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. No need to hit the panic button if your a Taillon fan though I don’t think as the hard-throwing right-hander had allowed just two runs over his last three starts combined previous to the sub-par effort (note that Taillon is 2-1 with a respectable 3.22 ERA in all day games this season as well.) Additionally note that Milwaukee is just 1-3 (-2.1 units) in its last four “day” games, while Pittsburgh is 18-13 (+8.5 units) this year in the same position. I like Pittsburgh to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

1* FREE PLAY under Yankees/Mariners. New York turns to Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40 ERA) on Thursday night and he most recently gave up one run off four hits while posting six K’s over seven innings of work against Boston on Saturday, very unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his fine effort. Severino has posted consecutive quality starts and is 2-1 with a 3.02 ERA on the road this year. Seattle counters with Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20) who gave up three runs (just one earned) while stirking out five over five innings in a victory over the White Sox on Saturday (he’s 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA at home.) Recent form displayed by these starter’s suggests we’ll have a “pitchers duel” on our hands in this one. Consider the under. 

10* GAME OF WEEK Hamilton. I had a big play on Hamilton last week and it jumped out to a decent start, but then fell apart to BC’s high-octane offense down the stretch. It’s essentially “do-or-die” for the Ti-Cats this week though, as despite a long 18-game season, an 0-4 hole out of the gate would likely be just too much for the team to climb out of. Hamilton is desperate at 0-3, while Edmonton comes to town contented at 3-0. Eskimos QB Mike Reilly has posted four TD’s in his last three games. The ground game for the visitors averages just 99.3 YPG though. The Eskimos get the job done on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 22.3 PPG thus far. That means that the pressure is on Ti-Cats QB Zach Collaros to step up with his best performance of the 2017 campaign (so far he has 792 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s.) Hamilton has struggled defensively, but note that the Ti-Cats have excelled in this spot for bettors over the years by going 6-3 ATS in their last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and 5-3 ATS in their last eight as an underdog of three to nine points (conversely, the Eskimos are just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite of three to nine points.) All signs point to a letdown for Edmonton. Grab the points.

10* BLUE CHIP under Cards/Cubs. Both starters come in off strong performances. The Cards turn to Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.36 ERA) who looked great in the All Star Game and then gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Sunday in his first start in the second half (owns a respectable 3.93 ERA in all road games to this point.) Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.17) gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out three over 6.2 innings in a win over Baltimore on Saturday. Arrieta is finally hitting his stride in 2017 as he’s held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. St. Louis has already seen the total go under the number in ten of 15 games in July, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four after three or more consecutive wins. Play the under.