Matt Fargo Matt Fargo
As the College Hoops season winds down, Matt continues to HEAT UP! After a PERFECT 5-0 ATS start to the Big Dance, he is now on a profitable run of 75-63-2 L136! FOUR more NCAA Tournament Winners Friday!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Mar 21, 2019
Penguins vs Predators
Penguins
+135 at Mirage
Won
$135
Play Type: Top Premium

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. While dropping out of the playoffs is unlikely for the Penguins, they are still just six points out from doing so with eight games remaining in the season. Pittsburgh has lost three straight games, the last two coming in extra time, while scoring just four goals in total over that stretch. The Penguins average 3.41 gpg on the road which is fourth most in the NHL and going back, they are 8-2 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. Nashville meanwhile has won three straight games to keep pace with Winnipeg in the Central Division as it trails the Jets by three points. The Predators play Winnipeg in their next game on Saturday so the lookahead possibility is there. Nashville is 23-13-1 at home but it is outscoring opponents by just 0.08 gpg at home so it has been far from dominant. Nashville is 5-16 in its last 21 games after three straight wins by two goals or more. Here, we play against teams after allowing two goals or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after losing two consecutive games in overtime. This situation is 75-46 (62 percent) since 1996. 10* (37) Pittsburgh Penguins

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
New Mexico State vs Auburn
New Mexico State
+6 -115 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO AGGIES for our NCAA Tournament Early Shocker. Auburn enters the Big Dance 26-9 overall after winning four games in four days in the SEC Tournament to claim an automatic bid. Despite this, Auburn is just a No. 5 seed. The Tigers are at a huge disadvantage on the glass as New Mexico St. is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and it is ranked No. 1 in Total Rebounding Percentage. Auburn is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against teams outrebounding their opponents by seven or more per game. No one comes into the NCAA Tournament hotter than New Mexico St. as it has not lost a game since Jan. 3, when it fell to California Baptist, 82-76. It was the worst loss on the Aggies resume this season but since then, they have won 19 consecutive games. The level of competition has had a lot to do with this as the Aggies have not played an actual, real team since they lost to Kansas on December 2. But it needs to be noted than they lost that game by just three points on a neutral floor in Kansas City. 9* (781) New Mexico St. Aggies

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Vermont vs Florida State
Vermont
+9 -108 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

This is a play on the VERMONT CATAMOUNTS for our NCAA Tournament Ultimate Underdog. Vermont owns impressive wins over Yale, Harvard, St. Bonaventure and Northeastern while sticking around against Kansas and Louisville. The Catamounts do the right things to win as they are ranked 2nd in the country at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, grabbing 78.2 percent of the available defensive rebounds. Vermont also excels at defending two-point shots, limiting opponents to 46.5 percent inside the arc, good for 38th in the nation. Impressively, they play good defense without fouling, ranking 22nd in the nation in terms of opponents FTA/FGA. Florida St. closed the season strong before running up against Duke and the Seminoles have been an historic disappointment in the NCAA Tournament. The underdog is 14-1 ATS with 11 outright wins in Florida State's last 15 NCAA Tournament games. And in Leonard Hamilton's 15 NCAA Tourney games as head coach, the underdog is 15-4 ATS with 11 outright wins. He is 3-8 ATS with 6 SU losses as a favorite. 9* (763) Vermont Catamounts

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Yale vs LSU
Yale
+7½ -104 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

This is a play on the YALE BULLDOGS for our NCAA Tournament Afternoon Dominator. We played against LSU in its first game in the SEC Tournament as there are a lot of distractions with this team right now and we see it continuing. The Tigers will be without their head coach, Will Wade, who was suspended by the school due to recruiting violations. This is just the second NCAA Tournament appearance for the Tigers in the last 10 years. Interim coach Tony Benford was able to lead the Tigers to a convincing win in the regular season finale but that came against Vanderbilt which did not win a single game in the SEC this season. LSU beats teams by turning them over, but Yale has the guards that can take care of the ball. Yale can make shots, and that will keep them in this game. The Bulldogs have won three straight games that included taking the two games in the Ivy League Tournament. Yale was able to pull off an upset over Baylor in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, and this team has the same type of feel. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (767) Yale Bulldogs

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 21, 2019
Murray State vs Marquette
Murray State
+3½ -110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

This is a play on the MURRAY ST. RACERS for our NCAA Tournament Enforcer. This is an intriguing matchup between two teams that have the top two scorers in the nation among teams playing in the NCAA Tournament. Murray St. matches up well here and has the ability on both sides of the ball to pull off the outright upset. Ja Morant, who is averaging 24.6 ppg, 10 apg and 5.5 rpg and is projected to be a top-three pick in the NBA draft this summer in leading the Racers to the OVC Championship. For as great as Morant is at scoring, no one in college basketball plays as critical of a role in complementing the entire team. Morant is No. 1 overall in assist rate per KenPom, which contributes directly to the Racers' No. 5 national ranking in two-point field-goal percentage. Marquette got off to a great start this season but is wilting at the wrong time as the Golden Eagles have lost five of their last six games coming into the NCAA Tournament. The offense is very good but the Racers were undefeated (17-0) this season when holding teams below 70 points. Murray St. is 11-3 ATS away from home after one or more consecutive wins this season. 10* (761) Murray St. Racers

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Mar 22, 2019
Wild vs Capitals
Wild
+150 at Bovada
Won
$150
Play Type: Top Premium

This is a play on the MINNESOTA WILD for our NHL Friday Breakaway. We are going contrarian here in a game that is significantly more important. Minnesota has lost two straight games as it remains a point out of the second Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. It is not going to be easy as five of the final eight games for the Wild are on the road with every game coming against playoff contenders. Minnesota has actually been a better road team than at home and going back, the Wild are 19-6 in their last 25 games after scoring two goals or less in two straight games while going 25-11 in their last 36 games after two or more consecutive losses. Washington is coming off a home loss against Tampa Bay in overtime but the point acquired gave it a three-point lead over the Islanders and Penguins in the Metropolitan Division. The Capitals are 21-15 at home and are a bit overpriced here and they are part of a negative situation here where we play on teams coming off a loss by two goals or more to a division rival going up against an opponent off a home loss by one goal. This situation is 75-51 ATS (59.5 percent over the last five seasons. 10* (53) Minnesota Wild

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 22, 2019
Spurs vs Rockets
Rockets
-6 -104 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. San Antonio had won nine straight games before losing 110-105 to the Heat on Wednesday and is opening a three-game roadtrip with the Rockets. It was a surprising home loss for the Spurs as they are 29-8 at home and seven of those wins during the streak came there. They are just 13-22 on the road and the two victories were against Dallas and Atlanta, noncontending playoff teams. San Antonio has just three road wins the entire season on the against teams in current playoff positions. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Houston is also coming off a loss last time out as it lost in Memphis in overtime by a point. The Rockets have won seven of their last eight home games, the lone loss coming against Golden St. by a bucket. They are still chasing first and second place in the Western Conference as they are 4.5 games back but they have just a half-game lead over Portland for fourth place. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season with a scoring differential +3 to +7 ppg going up against a team that is +/- 3 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 53-29 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (510) Houston Rockets

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Iowa vs Cincinnati
Iowa
+4 -103 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Friday NCAA Tournament Afternoon Dominator. With the way the seasons closed out in opposite ways for Iowa and Cincinnati, the public is all over the Bearcats in this matchup. Cincinnati is riding the momentum from winning the AAC Tournament that included an upset win over Houston in the championship game. Iowa closed the season with losses in five of its last six games but this is a very efficient offense as four of five starters average double figures in scoring and shoot 40 percent or better from the field. The Hawkeyes enter the tournament with the 15th best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country according to KenPom and are great at getting to the free throw line with free throw attempts accounting for 42 percent of all of its field goals, the 14th highest in the nation. Cincinnati's defense ranks 114th for putting opponents on the free throw line. The Bearcats also struggle to slow down spot-up shooters, a strength of Iowa. This season, the Hawkeyes scored 1.1 points per possession on spot-up attempts, placing them in the 95th percentile on these plays. Cincinnati's defense against these plays put it in the 78th percentile. 13 of the Bearcats games this year have been decided by five points or less. 9* (805) Iowa Hawkeyes

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Cal-Irvine vs Kansas State
Cal-Irvine
+5 -125 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

This is a play on the UC IRVINE ANTEATERS for our Friday NCAA Tournament Early Shocker. Kansas St. is coming off a surprisingly good season as it captured a share of the Big XII regular season championship with Texas Tech and despite the seeding variance here, the Wildcats got a bad draw. Kansas St. will be without second leading scorer and leading rebounder Dean Wade and his absence will be felt down low. This hurts even more with this draw. The Wildcats take a third of their field goal attempts near the rim and are terrible at those attempts at 51 percent shooting and just one point per possession, putting them in the 8th percentile in the country. UC Irvine, by comparison, is the best rim-protecting team in the nation, holding opponents to 44 percent shooting and 0.9 points per possession. The Anteaters enter the NCAA Tournament having won 16 straight games. At 30-5 they have one of the best records in college basketball. The vast majority of their wins came against other mid-majors, but UC Irvine did beat Texas A&M in November, as well as NCAA Tournament teams Montana and Saint Mary's. This was tabbed by the public as a possible upset and despite the conference differential, the matchup itself does in fact call for it. 9* (827) UC Irvine Anteaters

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2019
Washington vs Utah State
Utah State
-3 -105 at BMaker
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our Friday NCAA Tournament Supreme Annihilator. Utah St. is one of just a handful of teams that come into the NCAA Tournament with a winning streak and it helps the Aggies out immensely. They took home the Mountain West Conference Tournament, although they avoided having to face Nevada, to extend their winning streak to 10 games. This is their first tournament since 2011 and the program has not won an NCAA Tournament game since 2001 when they beat Ohio St. in the first round so that momentum becomes even more important. The Aggies want to win with their up-tempo offense as they are tied for 39th in the country at 79.1 ppg. One of the ways they generate offense is by spreading the ball around as Utah St. is ninth in the nation at 17.1 assists per game. The Aggies went 3-2 against Quadrant 1 opponents, 2-3 versus Quadrant 2 foes and 22-1 against everybody else on their schedule. Washington made it all the way to the final game of the Pac 12 Tournament but the Huskies have had their issues recently. They are just 4-3 over their last seven games with all of those wins coming by no more than five points. The defense will have its hands full here as they struggled on that end during this recent stretch. 10* (812) Utah St. Aggies

SERVICE BIO

Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Tens in the past five years alone including four #1's.

Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as "Mr. Analysis" as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you.

Rating Scale

Play Rating will be displayed in each title and range anywhere from 5* to 10* for Premium Plays and 3* for Free Plays.

Enforcer – this is the Signature Play for Matt and is usually backed with a 10* Rating unless otherwise noted.

Supreme Annihilator – this is typically a favorite or a pickem that Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line.

Dark Horse Dandy – this is an underdog that is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright.

Star Attraction – this is a game that can be seen on national television providing great watch and win opportunities.

Total Dominator – while rare, these are the best over/under releases and occur more in football and baseball than any other sports.