Jimmy Boyd Jimmy Boyd
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NCAA-F SUBSCRIPTIONS
Boyd's 2019 College Football Season Pass

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NCAA-B SUBSCRIPTIONS
Boyd's 2019-20 NCAAB Season Pass
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NHL SUBSCRIPTIONS
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NBA SUBSCRIPTIONS
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BASKETBALL [NBA+NCAAB] SUBSCRIPTIONS
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FOOTBALL [NFL+NCAAF] SUBSCRIPTIONS
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NFL SUBSCRIPTIONS
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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 20, 2019
San Diego State vs. San Diego
San Diego State
-6 -110
  at  SPBOOK
started

1* NCAAB - Free Pick on San Diego State Aztecs -6 -110

I look for San Diego State to go on the road and lay it on in-state rival San Diego Wednesday night. Aztecs are off to an impressive 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS start to the season. That includes a 76-71 win at BYU as a 4-point dog. 

Revenge will definitely be a motivator for San Diego State, as they haven't forgot about last year's 73-61 home loss to the Toreros, where they blew a 7-point halftime lead. Aztecs have had a full week to mull over that loss, as they haven't played since defeating Grand Canyon 86-61 at home last Wednesday. 

Speaking of rest, San Diego is in a brutal scheduling spot. The Toreros will be playing their 4th game in the last 8 days and have had to travel a lot early with 3 of their first 5 on the road. 

Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a cover as a double-digit favorite and playing with 5/6 days of rest are a dominant 70-36 (66%) ATS since 1997. 

Aztecs are an elite defensive and rebounding team and have feasted on bad offenses like the Toreros. San Diego comes in shooting just 40.2% on the season and SDST is 10-1 ATS last 3 seasons vs a team that's shooting 42% or worse from the field. Take San Diego State! 

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 19, 2019
Senators vs Red Wings
Senators
+115 at sportsbook
Won
$115
Play Type: Premium

4* NHL - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Senators +115

I think we are getting a great price here on Ottawa as a road dog against the Red Wings. While the Senators come in off a loss at Buffalo, Ottawa hasn't dropped back-to-back games in nearly a month. 

As for Detroit, it's really been all downhill since they started out the season 3-1. Since that hot start, the Red Wings have gone a miserable 4-11. 

Underdogs off a division road loss in a game involving two bad teams that have won 30% to 40% of their games are 36-22 (62%) against the money line since 1996. Take Ottawa! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 19, 2019
Senators vs Red Wings
UNDER 6½ -120 Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NHL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Senators/Red Wings under 6½ -120

No need to overthink this one. The books have simply missed the mark with tonight's high total between Ottawa and Detroit. Both of these teams are bad offensive teams. The Senators come in averaging 2.7 goals/game and the Red Wings are even worse at 2.3 goals/game. 

Both defenses are pretty solid. Ottawa is only giving up 3.3 goals/game and Detroit is allowing just 3.4 goals/game at home and just 2.8 goals/game over their last 5. Each of the Red Wings last two games have seen them fall in OT and the UNDER is 10-1 in Detroit's last 11 at home off 2 straight overtime losses. Take the UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 19, 2019
Suns vs Kings
Suns
+3 -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Suns +3 -109

I actually think we are getting some decent value here with Phoenix due to the Suns playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and having just got annihilated by the Celtics last night 99-85 at home.

Thing is, Phoenix had 3 days off before playing Boston, so the back-to-back isn't a as big a deal. Suns are also a team that has been very profitable in this spot, going 9-4 ATS last 13 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season, covering by almost 11 points/game. 

These two already played once this season and the Suns won 124-95. Phoenix did as they pleased, shooting 50% from the field and racking up 31 assists. That result combined with the Kings off a 100-99 win at home over the Celtics adds even more value. 

Home teams revening a road loss of 20 or more and are coming off a home win by 3 or less are a mere 21-54 (28%) ATS since 1996. Take Phoenix! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2019
Fairfield vs Maryland
Fairfield
+26 -105 at sportsbook
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +26 -105

I think we are getting a great price here with the Stags as a massive road dog against the No. 7 ranked Terps. Maryland hasn't had to sweat anything early on and I just think they are going to have a hard time giving a pretty mediocre Fairfield team their full attention. 

Terps have covered their last two, beating Rhode Island by 18 as a 12-point favorite and Oakland by 30 as a 18.5-point favorite. This will be the most they have been asked to lay since they were a 28.5-point favorite in their opener against Holy Cross, a game in which they failed to cover. 

Stags are just 1-3 SU, but are 3-1 ATS and could easily be 4-0 both SU and ATS. They have two losses by 4-points or less and 9-point loss in OT, which was the only game they failed to cover as a 5-point dog. Fairfield has 3 double-digit scorer, led by Jesus Cruz's 19.5 ppg. Even if this gets ugly early, they should be able to climb through the backdoor and cash a winner. Take Fairfield! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2019
Manhattan vs Samford
Manhattan
+5 -105 at YouWager
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +5 -105

I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Bulldogs. Manhattan is off to a strong 2-0 start and just won outright as a home dog against Albany in their last game. Jaspers won that game holding the Great Danes to just 28.3% shooting. 

Manhattan should be greatly improved over the 11-win team from last year, as they brought back 85.3% of their minutes and 10 different guys who started at least 1 game. One thing that killed last year was turnovers and that was a direct result of their lack of experience at the guard position. 

More than anything, I think this Jaspers defense is built to win on the road with how they defend the ball. The offense hasn't been great, but they are due to shoot the ball well. Samford's defense isn't great and have already allowed 90+ on two occasions. 

Samford likes to play fast and that's another plus for Manhattan. Jaspers are 42-20 ATS last 62 vs up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots/game. Jaspers are also 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 55 or less and 20-8 last 28 after a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Take Manhattan! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2019
College of Charleston vs Marshall
College of Charleston
PK -104 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on College of Charleston PK -104

Marshall is a team I feel is worth fading early on. Thundering Herd won 23 games last year and did so averaging an impressive 80.5 ppg (28th in the country). They just don't have the offensive fire-power this year having lost two prolific scorers in Jon Elmore (20.3 ppg) and C.J. Burks (17.7 ppg). 

Thru their first 3 games the Herd are averaging just 67 ppg with 70 being their highest output of the season. Marshall did cover last time out at Notre Dame as a 19-point dog, but they also failed to cover their first two against Robert Morris and Toledo, both at home. 

Charleston is the team to beat in the Colonial this year and are primed for a bounce back after an ugly game against Oklahoma State, where they couldn't make a thing (32.7%) and the Cowboys couldn't miss (51.9%). 

Marshall is just 3-12 ATS last 15 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons when listed anywhere from +3 to -3. Cougars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from C-USA and 7-0 ATS last 7 after failing to cover 2 in a row. Take Charleston! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 19, 2019
Blazers vs Pelicans
OVER 230½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Free

1* NBA - Free Pick on Blazers/Pelicans OVER 230½ -110

I'm expecting a very high-scoring affair Tuesday night in New Orleans, as the Pelicans get ready to host the Blazers. We got two teams facing off that don't play a whole lot of defense and love to push the pace offensively. 

Portland comes in 10th in the league in pace of play and are giving up 114.1 ppg. New Orleans is T-3rd in pace and are allowing 120.0 ppg. Pelicans should definitely be able to set the tempo here at home against a Blazers team that will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. Portland also in the second game of a back-to-back, as they were at Houston on Monday. 

This is also a great matchup for Portland's offense, which ranks 2nd in the NBA in pick-and-roll offense and will be facing a Pelicans defense that ranks 24th in defending the pick-and-roll. Look for Damian Lillard to have a monster game exploiting this weakness. 

OVER is 10-3-1 in Portland's last 14 vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, 7-3 in their last 10 on the road and 21-8-1 in their last 30 off a game they failed to cover. 

OVER is 9-4 in Pelicans last 13 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, 9-4 in their last 13 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take the OVER! 

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 19, 2019
New Mexico vs UTEP
New Mexico
+1 -110 at YouWager
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +1 -110

I believe the fact that UTEP has started out 3-0 has the Miners getting way to much respect here at home against the Lobos. I would definitely have New Mexico favored in this one.

Thanks to a lot of transfer additions, the Lobos have one of the most talented teams in the MWC this year and they have lived up to the hype early on with a 4-0 start, all 4 wins coming by double-digits. 

UTEP simply hasn't played anyone. Their 3 wins are against the likes of New Mexico Highlands, New Mexico State and East New Mexico. That's two of three games against non-D1 competition. They should be averaging a lot more than 76.3 ppg.

I just don't see them keeping pace with New Mexico, who averages 93.0 ppg on 54% shooting. Lobos are simply the more talented team and it wouldn't shocked me if they made it 5 straight wins by double-digits. Take New Mexico! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 19, 2019
Ohio vs Bowling Green
Ohio
-20 -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF - Ohio/BG MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ohio -20 -110

I like the Bobcats to cruise to a easy win and cover at Bowling Green Tuesday night. Ohio may have had their MAC title hopes crushed with back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Miami (OH) and Western Michigan, but there's still a ton to play for in these last two games, as the Bobcats need to win out to make a bowl. 

Ohio may have just 1 more win on the resume than the Falcons, but the talent gap between these two is really noticeable. While the Bobcats are just 3-3 in MAC play, they are outscoring teams by 2 ppg and outgaining them by 23.6 ypg. Bowling Green is getting outscored by 16.3 ppg and 141.4 ypg in MAC play. 

The biggest thing for me here is I just don't see the Falcons defense being able to keep the Bobcats from putting up a huge number. Ohio averages 200 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry on the ground. They will be facing a BG defense that gives up 212 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. 

Also, Falcons have nothing left to play for after last week's 44-3 loss to Miami (OH), as the best they can finish is 5-7. BG is also just 3-11 ATS last 14 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 1-7 ATS as a dog of any number this season. Take Ohio! 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 20, 2019
Capitals vs Rangers
UNDER 6½ +120 Won
$120
Play Type: Premium

3* NHL - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Capitals/Rangers under 6½ +120

The books have set the total too high here for this division matchup. Both the Capitals and Rangers are averaging just 2.7 goals/game in division games this season. 

It's also worth noting that these two played back on Oct. 18 at Washington, which the Capitals won 5-2. UNDER is 12-4 in the Rangers last 16 home games revenging a road loss of 2 or more. 

UNDER is 89-47 (65%) since 1996 when you have a team revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 20, 2019
Rockets vs Nuggets
Rockets
+2 -109 at GTBets
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Rockets +2 -109

I get this isn't the best scheduling spot for Houston, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, but I just think the books have factored that into the number and the value is with the Rockets as an underdog. 

Houston comes in having won and covered 8 in a row. The concerns of how Russell Westbrook and James Harden could go exist can be thrown out the window. Harden has to be the MVP frontrunner right now, as he's averaging 39.2 ppg to go with 7.6 apg and 5.7 rpg. As for Westbrook, he's doing just fine at 21.6 ppg, 7.1 apg and 8.4 rpg. I just see no reason to back off this team with how they are playing right now. 

Denver is also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Houston! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 20, 2019
Akron vs Miami-OH
UNDER 45 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF - Weekday Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Akron/Miami-OH under 45 -110

I love the value here with the UNDER 45 in Wednesday's MAC matchup between Miami (OH) and Akron. This has an ugly low-scoring affair written all over it. The Zips are one of the worst teams in college football and are as bad offensively as a team can be in today's game. Akron comes in averaging 10.6 ppg on the season and a mere 7.8 ppg in MAC play. 

Miami is only giving up 16.0 ppg at home and will be extra motivated to play with this being their final home game and senior night. The big concern here would be the RedHawks covering this total on their own, but with the MAC East already locked up, I think we could see Miami go a little more vanilla on offense, especially in the 2nd half. There biggest thing is to stay fresh and as healthy as possible over the final two regular-season games. 

UNDER is 24-11 in Miami's last 35 vs a bad team that's won fewer than 25% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 vs horrible offensive teams that are averaging 17 or fewer points/game. Take the UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 20, 2019
Magic vs Raptors
UNDER 208 -115 Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA - Raptors/Magic TOTAL WINNER on Magic/Raptors under 208 -115

I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. 

I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. 

Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. 

As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. 

Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 20, 2019
Siena vs Yale
Siena
+5½ -110 at YouWager
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Siena +5½ -110

The Saints are worth a look here as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Siena has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS to start out the season and have done so against some decent competition. Last time out the Saints nearly upset the Ivy League favorites on the road, as they fell 56-59 at Harvard, easily covering as a 10.5-point dog. 

Now they face another Ivy team in Yale, who has lost two straight and really struggling to get their offense going. In their 3 games against Div. 1 opponents the Bulldogs have shot 39% or worse from the field. That's a big concern, as Siena has been rock solid on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have held Harvard to 40% shooting, St. Bonaventure to 38% and Xavier to 43%. 

Not a big surprise to see Yale struggle, as they lost 3 starters, including their best player in Miye Oni. Siena will have the best player on the floor in this one in sophomore point guard Jalen Pickett. Last year Pickett had to basically do it all on his own as a freshmen. This year he's got some help. Mount St. Mary's transfer Donald Carey is putting in 16 ppg and Notre Dame transfer Elijah Burns is at 15.5 ppg. Take Siena! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 20, 2019
Magic vs Raptors
Magic
+4 -115 at Bovada
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA - Raptors/Magic ATS WINNER on Magic +4 -115

I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. 

I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. 

Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. 

As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. 

Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 20, 2019
BYU vs Boise State
Boise State
+1 -105 at Bovada
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State +1 -105

I love this spot and price with the Broncos at basically a pick'em at home against the Cougars. BYU comes into this game off a thrilling 72-71 win at Houston as a 11.5-point underdog, but I think it has them overvalued. Prior to beating Houston they only beat Southern Utah by 5 as a 11.5-point dog and lost by 5 at home to San Diego State as a 4-point favorite. 

Boise State comes in just 1-2 and off two straight losses, but one of those was at Oregon, who looks like a legit Pac-12 contender and the other was to UC-Irvine, the favorites to win the Big West. I think we get a really big effort here from the Broncos on 4 days rest, while BYU could be a bit sluggish off the big upset win. 

Offense has not been a problem for Boise, who is averaging 87 ppg and shooting 47% from the field. That's worth noting as the Cougars are just 5-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons vs teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Boise State! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 20, 2019
UC-Davis vs CS Sacramento
UC-Davis
+4 -104 at GTBets
Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on UC-Davis +4 -104

Easy play here on UC Davis as a dog against Big Sky bottom feeder Sacramento State. The Aggies come in at just 2-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, but have also played 4 of 5 away from home. Sacramento State is 2-0, but their toughest opponent was UC-Riverside, who expected to be at or near the bottom of the Big West. 

UC Davis has been very profitable in this spot, going 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. The Hornets defense has looked great against a couple of weak opponents, but are just 2-10 ATS last 12 times they have faced a team like UC Davis that is shooting 48% or better from the field and have lost in this spot by almost 15 ppg. Take UC Davis! 

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