Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Boston College +7 

The Florida State Seminoles have been overvalued all season.  They are 13-4 SU but just 6-11 ATS.  They should not be 7-point road favorites over the Boston College Eagles today.  The Cardinals have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by 6 at home over Miami as 10-point favorites. 

Boston College is getting zero love from oddsmakers due to losing five straight games coming in.  But four of the five losses came by 11 points or fewer, so they were competitive in all but their loss to Virginia.  And three of their last four games have been on the road at Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Louisville.  They are certainly happy to be back home Sunday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has gone 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings. The home team is also 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Seminoles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 ACC games.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Boston College Sunday.

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15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -3 

The Drake Bulldogs are worth a bet at home today against the Missouri State Bears.  This Drake team has been one of the most underrated in the country all season.  That’s evident by the fact that they’ve gone 12-4 ATS in their 16 lined games.  They are also 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this year, winning by 15.1 points per game on average. 

Missouri State is clearly down this season.  The Bears have gone 8-10 SU and 7-10 ATS in their 17 lined games.  That includes a 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS mark in all games played away from home.  The Bears should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers today. 

Missouri State is 0-9 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  They are coming back to lose by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Drake is 23-8-1 ATS in its lsat 32 home games.  The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

15* Patriots/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3 

When you consider the Patriots needed a last-second field goal to beat the Chiefs at home in their first meeting this season, it’s easy to see why I like the Chiefs this week.  Now the Chiefs are at home as they earned home-field advantage with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  That’s going to be the difference in this game Sunday. 

The Chiefs are 8-1 at home this season.  Their defense has played so much better at home than on the road.  They are giving up just 17.4 points and 344.6 yards per game at home this season.  They held the Colts to just 13 points and 263 total yards last week, which is no small feat with how well the Colts were rolling.  And now they will shut down Tom Brady and company this week. 

While the Patriots are 9-0 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Patriots are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season, actually getting outscored by 2.4 points per game on average.  They give up 399 yards per game on the road, and their offense is only scoring 21.6 points per game on the highway.  The Patriots have losses to the likes of Jacksonville (20-31), Detroit (10-26), Tennessee (10-34) and Miami (33-34) on the road this season.  All four of those are non-playoff teams even.  They also lost to Pittsburgh, and their three wins have come against the Jets, Bills and Bears. 

The Patriots have never gone to the Super Bowl the year after losing the Super Bowl, going 0-5 in five tries.  Tom Brady is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs.  And Brady lost his big play threat in Josh Gordon late in the season.  Brady averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with Gordon on the field, and only 5.6 per attempt with Gordon off the field this season.  Gronk is a shell of his former self.  He has two or fewer receptions and 25 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games right now. 

Home teams are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Round over the last five years.  That’s right, no team has gone on the road in the last five years and won a game to get to the Super Bowl.  It’s worth noting that the Patriots scored 41 points on the Chargers last week.  But teams who scored 40 points or more in a playoff win the previous week are just 5-25-1 ATS the next week, including 2-11-1 ATS in the Championship Round.  Also, the Patriots have been home for three straight weeks, which has been a big advantage for them.  Teams who go on the road following three straight home games have gone 3-14 SU & 3-14 ATS in the playoffs. 

Kansas City is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference championship games.  It’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes’ time.  They are getting to the Super Bowl with a win and cover here against the ‘mighty’ Patriots.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3 

The Saints are the best team in the NFC.  They have been all season, and they still are.  So with that being the case, they should be more than a 3-point favorite over the Rams when you factor in home-field advantage.  The home field for the Saints is worth more than 3 points, especially in a playoff atmosphere.  And they’re the better team.  This line should be closer to -4.5 or -5 than -3. 

I think because the Saints have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Rams have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall gives us a ‘buy low, sell high’ opportunity here.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Saints and ’sell high’ on the Rams.  But the Saints were big favorites in each of their last four games, and they won three of them.  The only one they lost was a meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina in which they rested their starters. 

I think the Saints are getting discredited too much for their 20-14 win over the Eagles last week.  The way they won trailing 14-0 and overcoming adversity to score the final 20 points and shut down the Eagles after the first quarter will give them a ton of confidence heading into this game.  This team feel invincible now, especially after the defense came up with a huge INT to save the game on the final drive.  And it’s worth noting the Saints outgained the Eagles by 188 yards in that game.  The Rams lost outright to the Eagles 23-30 at home as 13.5-point favorites late in the season. 

I’m definitely backing the better quarterback here in Drew Brees, and the better defense in the Saints.  I’ll almost always back the better QB and the better defense every time in this situation.  Drew Brees is 6-0 in playoff home games under Sean Payton.  The Saints are scoring 32.6 points and averaging 402.9 yards per game at home this season. 

But it’s the defense that really gets me excited.  The Saints have allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games in which their starters played.  They are giving up just 14.5 points per game in those eight games in which their starters played.  And I think the biggest strength, which is their run D, will be huge in this matchup. 

Jared Goff can’t be trusted in big games.  He has a 0-to-5 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against playoff teams.  It’s a big reason the Rams went run-heavy last week, rushing for 273 yards on 48 carries against the Cowboys.  But it’s worth noting they had a huge advantage because they picked up on a ’tell’ by the Cowboys that let them know which way they were stunting.  Players said it was 80% to 90% of the time right.  It explains why the Rams were able to exploit what was previously a great Cowboys run D. 

Well, the Saints rank 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 80.2 rushing yards per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.6) allowed.  There’s no question the Saints are going to try to force Jared Goff to try and beat them, and I don’t think he can.  The Rams’ passing game just hasn’t been nearly as effective since Goff lost his favorite security blanked in Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury. 

The Saints beat the Rams 45-35 at home in their first meeting this season.  They racked up 487 total yards and 31 first downs on this Rams’ defense, which has some star players, but as a whole is extremely vulnerable.  Clearly Brees and company found some holes in the first meeting, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns.  That was a 35-14 game and was a bigger blowout than the final score showed even.  And Goff had Kupp, who had 89 receiving yards and a score in that contest. 

Home teams are a perfect 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Games over the past five seasons.  That’s right, no road team has gone on the road to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in the last five years.  I don’t think it will be a QB the caliber of Goff that ends this streak Sunday.  The home team has won six straight meetings in this series.  The Saints have won their last three home meetings wit the Rams by an average of 18.7 points per game.  Bet The Saints Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks PK 

It’s safe to say the Atlanta Hawks aren’t tanking.  They have some impressive results over the last few weeks that show they can play with anyone.  And I certainly think they can beat the Magic at home tonight, especially since the Hawks are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Hawks beat the Heat by 24 as 6.5-point home dogs on January 6th.  They followed that up with only a 3-point road loss at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs.  They upset Philadelphia as 10.5-point road dogs on January 11th.  They upset Oklahoma City as 10.5-point home dogs on January 15th.  And last time out they led the Celtics the entire way until the 4th quarter and lost by 8. 

The Magic are starting to show some fatigue.  The will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and their 9th game in 16 days.  They have lost three straight coming in and are just 5-12 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games with six of those losses coming by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Hawks Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -4.5 

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are a lot better than their 9-9 record would suggest.  Each of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less, including the last three by a combined five points. 

One of those losses was a one-point defeat at Marshall, 69-70.  That game was played on January 12th, so the Hilltoppers don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially since they also lost by a single point 66-67 to Marshall in the C-USA Tournament last year. 

Marshall is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season, and three of those wins have come by a combined five points, so they were very close to being 1-8 on the road this year.  Western Kentucky is 5-2 at home with wins over the likes of St. Mary’s and Wisconsin.  They also have road wins over West Virginia and Arkansas this season.  Those four wins alone show you that this is a very good team. 

Marshall is 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The Thundering Herd are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games off five or more consecutive wins.  Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet Western Kentucky Monday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +11.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be excited to play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Mavericks will be rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 3rd game in 8 days. 

The Bucks are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  But now they are being asked to lay double-digits consistently, and betting on double-digit favorites in the NBA is a quick way to lose a lot of money. 

The Mavericks have owned the Bucks, going 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Their two losses came by a combined 8 points with one by 7 and one by a single point.  Asking the Bucks to have to win this game by 12 or more points to cover is simply asking too much. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, in non-conference games are 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points in this situation have gone 29-6 ATS over the last five years as well.  Take the Mavericks Monday.