Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Ole Miss -18 

The Ole Miss Rebels won 20 games and made the NCAA Tournament in Kermit Davis’ first season on the job last year.  He earned SEC Coach of the Year honors for the work he did, and now the Rebels should be a force in the SEC once again this season. 

The Rebels return two double-digit scorers from last year in Breein Tyree and Devontae Shuler.  Tyree is an SEC Player of the Year candidate after averaging 17.9 points per game last season.  Shuler averaged 10.3 points per game and shot 51.1% on 2’s and 40.2% on 3’s last year. 

Ole Miss is off to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS start this season beating Arkansas State by 28 as 22-point favorites, Norfolk State by 13 as 24-point favorites and Western Michigan by 27 as 19.5-point favorites.  They should easily cover this 18-point spread against Seattle at home. 

Seattle is off to a 2-3 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season.  Their two wins have come at home against Pacific Lutheran and Pacific-Oregon.  They lost by 31 at Washington State as 3-point dogs, a Washington State team picked to finish last in the Pac-12.  They were upset at home by Eastern Washington by 8 as 2.5-point favorites.  And they lost by 22 at Syracuse as 16-point dogs. 

Ole Miss is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 77-plus points per game.  Seattle is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games overall.  Ole Miss is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.  The Rebels are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday.

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15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -7 

Jeremy Ballard turned around the FIU program in his first season last year.  He guided the Panthers to their first 20-win season since the program joined Division 1, and only their second winning record since 2001.  The former VCU assistant won’t be at FIU for long. 

Ballard implemented an up-tempo offense that averaged 77 possessions, which was more than any other team in the nation with the average offensive trip lasting 14.1 seconds, also the fastest in the land.  Their full-court pressure forced turnovers on 23.4 percent (7th) of opponent’s possessions, and they converted those into 23 points per game in transition (4th). 

The Panthers returned four starters this season in Devon Andrews (15.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Osasumwen Osaghae (8.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG), Trefjon Jacob (10.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and Antonio Daye Jr. (8.3 PPG).  I think we are getting this team cheap tonight because they are just 1-2, but they covered the spread in both of their road losses to Mississippi State (69-77) as 16.5-point dogs and NC State (77-86) as 17.5-point dogs. 

Cleveland State is picked to finish last in the Horizon this season, and I fully agree with it.  The Vikings went 10-21 last season and brought in a new head coach in Dennis Gates.  They lost all five starters from last year and only brought back one key reserve.  The Vikings are 1-3 this season with a 35-point loss to Minnesota, a 20-point loss to Missouri State and a 27-point loss to South Carolina.  They are clearly a team in rebuilding mode.  Take Florida International Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 

The Golden State Warriors might just be the worst team in the NBA now.  They are 2-12 this season and are without their top three scorers in Steph Curry, D’Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson.  There’s just not a lot to like about this team moving forward. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to gel as a team.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins over the Spurs as 10.5-point dogs and Hornets as 2.5-point dogs, as well as an upset home win over the Jazz as 8-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have scored 115.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting at home this season.  They’ll be up against a Warriors team that gives up 119.0 points per game and 48% shooting overall, including 119.9 points per game and 48.8% shooting on the road.  Golden State is 1-6 on the highway and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. 

The Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Golden State is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -5 

The Northern Illinois Huskies kept their bowl hopes alive last week with a huge 31-28 road win at Toledo to improve to 4-6 on the season.  Now they have two home games to finish the season and have a legit chance of making a bowl.  They need to handle their business here against Eastern Michigan to do so. 

Eastern Michigan is 5-5 this season with a home game on deck next week against Kent State that they will be heavily favored in.  They know they can afford to lose this game and still make a bowl.  Sure, they want to beat Northern Illinois, but it’s not as urgent to win this game as it is for the Huskies. 

I simply believe NIU is the better team despite having the worse record.  The Huskies have played a brutal schedule this season with seven road games compared to three home games.  And those seven road games featured non-conference games at Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, as well as trips to four of the best teams in the MAC in Ohio, Miami, Central Michigan and Toledo.  The Huskies are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 18.7 points per game and holding foes to 12.3 points and 217.3 yards per game. 

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  These teams have faced the same four opponents.  Eastern Michigan is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS against them, getting outscored by 1.7 points per game and outgained by 68.7 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play.  Northern Illinois is 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS against those four teams, outscoring them by 1.7 points per game and only getting outgained by 27.3 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play. 

I like the matchup for NIU on both sides of the ball.  Their weakness this season has been stopping the run, but EMU only averages 118 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  NIU is great against the pass, giving up just 208 passing yards per game, and they’ll be able to slow down an EMU offense averaging 273 passing yards per game.  NIU has topped 200 rushing yards in two of its last three games coming in and should be able to run the ball at will on an EMU defense that allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  The Eagles have also been terrible against the pass, giving up 63.4% completions and 8.3 yards per attempt. 

Northern Illinois is 11-0 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Eastern Michigan.  The Huskies are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog over a conference opponent.  The Eagles are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Eastern Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +32 

The Akron Zips are 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS this season.  The chances of them going 0-12 ATS for the entire season are slim to none.  Oddsmakers are going to adjust knowing that the betting public wants to keep fading them because they haven’t covered yet.  And I think they’ve adjusted too much tonight. 

The Zips just recently got starting QB Kato Nelson back from injury.  He threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan last week while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  That’s the same Eastern Michigan team that just rolled Northern Illinois 45-17 on the road last night. 

I just don’t think Miami Ohio is going to be motivated enough to put away Akron by 31-plus points tonight.  Miami Ohio already clinched the MAC East last week with their win over Bowling Green.  They have the tiebreaker on their closest pursuers with head-to-head wins, and I think they will be flat tonight as a result.  They would need to be fully invested to cover this big of a number as they only have one win all season that would cover 32 points. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Miami Ohio) - off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio.  Take Akron Wednesday. 

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1 

The Houston Rockets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their run comes to an end tonight against a Denver Nuggets team that will be up to the challenge. 

The Rockets have been fasting on a pretty weak schedule as their eight wins have come against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Bulls, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves and Blazers.  This will be their toughest challenge in quite some time against a Nuggets team that has won six of their last seven overall coming in as well. 

The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season, and the Pepsi Center is never an easy place to play thanks to the altitude.  Now we get a fresh Nuggets team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.