Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers now have Malcolm Brogdon (21.3 PPG, 5.9 APG), Domantas Sabonis (19.8 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 6.0 APG) and Caris LeVert (18.0 PPG, 5.1 APG) all healthy.  They can beat anyone with these three leading the way, and they have been playing much better basketball of late due to their health.

The Pacers have gone 4-2 SU in their last six games overall with their only losses coming to the Bulls and Clippers.  Now they should be able to handle one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Houston Rockets, who have gone just 3-30 SU & 8-25 ATS in their last 33 games overall.

The big problem for the Rockets is that they just can't keep everyone healthy.  They have Christian Wood and John Wall healthy now, but they are without several key role players in Eric Gordon, Danuel House, D.J. Augustin and Sterling Brown tonight.  And there's a chance the Pacers get Myles Turner back from injury tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.

The Pacers are trying to make the playoffs sitting 9th in the East so they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, while the Rockets are just playing out the string.  Indiana is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Pacers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Houston is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 home games.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

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15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -113

I love the spot for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing both games of their double-header with the New York Mets last night.  It's revenge time in Game 3 tonight.

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Zack Wheeler, who is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in two starts this season.  Wheeler went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 11 starts for the Phillies last season.  He has posted a 3.68 ERA in 139 career starts in the majors and is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.

David Peterson already faced the Phillies once this season, allowing 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in 4 innings of a 2-8 loss.  That dropped Peterson to 0-1 with a 16.50 ERA and 2.667 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 16 base runners in 6 innings.

New York is 1-10 in its last 11 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Take the Phillies Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Orioles OVER 9

Baltimore has one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball at Camden Yards.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles' home games this season, including in each of the first two games of this series with the Seattle Mariners.  And I can't believe the books have set this total at only 9 runs tonight.

Matt Harvey hasn't been good in years.  He has posted a 4.86 ERA or worse every season dating back to 2016.  He is 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.

Justin Dunn was roughed up for 3 earned runs and 8 walks in 4 2/3 innings in his first start this season against the White Sox.  Dunn has posted a 4.26 ERA and 1.439 WHIP across 57 innings in three seasons in the majors.

The OVER is 6-1 in Mariners last seven games overall.  The OVER is 12-3-2 in Mariners last 17 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles last five games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles last five home games.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +11.5

I've been fading the Oklahoma City Thunder with a lot of success because they were without five of their top six scorers for most of this stretch that has seen them go 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall with seven straight blowout losses by double-digits coming in.  But now it's time to 'buy low' on the Thunder tonight.

They just got two of those scorers back two games ago in Dort (13.3 PPG) and Bazley (11.9 PPG).  Dort went off for 42 points last night against the Jazz in a 10-point loss as 16.5-point dogs.  He was the only Thunder play to play more than 28 minutes last night, so they should still be reasonably fresh, especially since they had two days off prior to that game.  It will be just their 2nd game in 4 days.

The injury report for the Golden State Warriors right now doesn't warrant them being double-digit road favorites over the Thunder tonight.  They are without three of their top six scorers in Kelly Oubre Jr. (15.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), James Wiseman (11.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Eric Paschall (9.5 PPG).  The Warriors are just 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall with only two wins by double-digits.

Golden State is 1-9 ATS following two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games.  Roll with the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +9

I absolutely love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They come in on two days' rest after losing to the Clippers 124-131 as 13-point road dogs on Sunday.  Now they will be out for revenge as they get to host the Clippers this time around as 9-point home dogs.

The Clippers trailed by 5 points in that game entering the 4th quarter before outscoring the Pistons by 12 in the final period.  And Detroit's best player in Jerami Grant (22.5 PPG) didn't even play in that game and has been out since April 6th.  But Grant is expected to make his return to the lineup tonight as he has been listed as probable.

This is an awful spot for the Clippers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight after a 126-115 win in Indiana last night.  They will be without Patrick Beverly and Serge Ibaka and there's a good chance Kawhi Leonard sits tonight as he is listed as questionable.  Paul George played 38 minutes last night and could rest as well.  Either way, this is a tired team that won't be all that motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 4 days.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better this season.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS vs. good teams that outscored their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Detroit is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games playing on two days' rest.  The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Detroit is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU loss.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.