Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Sacramento Kings -8.5 

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They blew a 25-point lead in the 4th quarter to lose to the Nets last time out.  Still, this team is 21-15 SU & 23-12-1 ATS at home this season.  And they’ll bounce back with a blowout win over the Mavs tonight. 

The Mavericks are a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a loss in Portland last night.  Don’t be surprised if they rest some starters.  It’s also a Dallas team that is playing terrible and clearly tanking, going 2-14 SU & 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall. 

The Kings are 15-5 ATS as favorites this season.  Sacramento is 7-0 ATS when playing against a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games this season.  They are winning by 15.2 points per game in these contests.  The Kings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

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15* Montana/Michigan TNT No-Brainer on Michigan -14.5 

Montana is a popular underdog, but they shouldn’t be.  This line has been bet from 16 down to 15 and 14.5 even in some places.  I think the value is there to pull the trigger on the Michigan Wolverines in this one. 

Montana is 137th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 301st-toughest schedule in the country.  Michigan is 5th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 19th-toughest schedule. 

When Montana took a step up in class in the non-conference, they lost badly.  Their two toughest opponents in the non-conference were Creighton and Arizona, two teams that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament.  Well, they lost by 26 to Creighton and by 19 to Arizona.  Michigan is far and away the toughest team that the Grizzlies will have faced, and that’s why they should be able to cover 15 here. 

Michigan is 9-1 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Michigan is 11-1 ATS in all games following a loss over the last two years.  The Wolverines are 40-19-4 ATS in their last 63 neutral site games.  Travis DeCuire is 7-17 ATS in all tournament games as the coach of Montana.  The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Montana is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Michigan Thursday. 

15* Seton Hall/Wofford CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Wofford -2.5 

Wofford is 29-4 and ranked in the Top 20 for good reason.  They are also 21st in the Kenpom rankings, well ahead of Seton Hall in 56th.  They Terriers are favored for a reason here, and they should be bigger favorites to boot. 

Wofford played one of the tougher non-conference schedules of all the mid majors, checking in at 121st in strength of schedule.  Their four losses this season came to UNC, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State, which are four NCAA Tournament teams.  They also won at South Carolina by 20, and beat UNC-Greensboro three times by 29, 30 and 12 points, and that’s a Greensboro team that was on the bubble. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on Seton Hall, which won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS to punch its ticket into the Big Dance.  This is a Pirates team that is way too reliant on one player in Myles Powell, who averages 22.9 PPG.  They only have one other double-digit scorer, and that’s Myles Cale at 10.3 PPG.  Wofford has a deadly trio that all average 13.2 PPG or more, led by Fletcher Magee (20.5 PPG). 

Wofford is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Terriers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  Take Wofford Thursday. 

15* Murray State/Marquette TBS ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -3 

There’s just too much love for JA Morant and the Murray State Racers in this one.  They are a very popular underdog pick because they won their conference tournament and beat Belmont in the title game.  As a result, this line has been bet from 4.5 down to 3.5 and even 3 in some spots. 

I think it’s time to ’sell high’ on Murray State and ‘buy low’ on Marquette, which the betting public wants nothing to do with after losing five of their final six games of the season.  But all five losses came by single-digits as they finally had some bad luck in close games after having a lot of good luck in close games prior to that.  This is still a 24-9 Golden Eagles team and arguably the best team in the Big East. 

Murray State did not impress me at all in non-conference.  They lost the two toughest games they played to Alabama and Auburn, and I would argue that Marquette will be the best team they have faced yet, if it’s not Auburn.  The Racers played the 272nd toughest schedule in the country, while Marquette played the 57th. 

Marquette is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better after 15-plus games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 13-3 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons.  They are winning by 14.4 points per game in this spot.  The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Roll with Marquette Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Auburn -5.5 

There’s just way too much love for New Mexico State in this game.  The Aggies’ 30-4 record looks great, and that’s why the public is jumping all over them, pushing this line down from 7 to 5.5.  It’s a complete mistake. 

Auburn is 18th in the NET rankings, while New Mexico State is 40th.  The Aggies are getting docked because they played the 244th-ranked schedule in the country.  Auburn played the 24th-toughest.  Auburn is 13th in the Kenpom rankings while New Mexico State is 53rd. 

When the Aggies stepped up in class in the non-conference, they lost.  They lost to St. Mary’s, Kansas, and Drake.  They also lost to Cal Baptist.  Their best wins came against Washington State twice, and the Cougars were one of the worst teams in the Pac-12. 

Auburn comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Tigers have won eight straight coming in, including two victories over Tennessee, and wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Mississippi State and Florida.  This is going to be a huge talent mismatch in their favor, and I’m not worried at all about them having a letdown from winning the SEC Tournament. 

New Mexico State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points.  It is losing by 12.4 points per game on average in this spot.  The Aggies are 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.  Take Auburn Thursday. 

20* Minnesota/Louisville CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -5 

The Louisville Cardinals are a team I expect to make a deep run in the tournament with wins over Minnesota and Michigan State to start it off.  There’s a reason behind my theory that this team is much better than its record would indicate. 

The Cardinals beat UNC by 21 on the road, blew a 20-point lead at home to Duke, and played Virginia tough twice.  They also already beat Michigan State in the non-conference and beat VA Tech on the road.  If they can play with and beat all of those teams, then they are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They should make easy work of Minnesota Thursday. 

The Golden Gophers really struggled when they stepped up in class this year.  I mean, Minnesota is 61st in the NET rankings, while Louisville is 22nd.  They went just 5-9 against NCAA Tournament teams, including their 49-76 laugher against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. 

Minnesota ranks toward the bottom of college basketball in all major offensive statistical categories.  They shoot just 43.7% as a team, including 32.1% from 3-point range while averaging just 5 made 3-pointers per game.  That’s why they cannot be trusted because they go on too many scoring draughts. 

The Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.  Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  Louisville is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.  The Cardinals are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Louisville Thursday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -6 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on a roll to close the season.  They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and their only losses came on the road to Auburn and Tennessee (twice). 

Plays against an underdog (Liberty) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, a top-level team (80% wins or more) playing a team with a winning record are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Friday games.  Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games.  The Bulldogs are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Mississippi State Friday. 

20* Ohio State/Iowa State TBS No-Brainer on Iowa State -5.5 

Iowa State is fully healthy for basically the first time all season.  And it was nice to see what they were capable of when fully healthy and focused in the Big 12 Tournament.  They won their conference tournament by beating Baylor (by 17), Kansas State (by 4) and Kansas (by 12). 

I think the Cyclones are one of the most talented teams in the country, and they are certainly under-seeded.  I fully expect them to make a deep run.  They have rabid fans that will travel the six hours to Tulsa, and if they make the Sweet 16, it’s only three hours from Ames to Kansas City, which is where the Big 12 Tournament was held. 

Ohio State doesn’t even belong in the NCAA Tournament.  The Buckeyes went just 19-14 this season nd struggled mightily down the stretch.  They went just 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their three wins coming over Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana.  They went 0-5 against NCAA Tournament teams not named Iowa during that stretch with all five losses coming by 6 points or more, and three by double-digits. 

Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when playing with five or six days’ rest over the last two seasons.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Ohio State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Take Iowa State Friday. 

15* CBB Friday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tennessee -17.5 

Tennessee plays Colgate.  Colgate has no chance of staying within 17.5 points of Tennessee. The Vols will roll by 20-plus in this showdown. 

The Vols are highly motivated following a bad loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament.  Colgate lost to New Jersey Tech in the non-conference, and they lost to Syracuse by 21 on the road and South Florida by 10 on the road.  They also lost by double-digits on the road to Penn State and Pitt, while also losing to Navy on the road. 

Tennessee is 8-1 ATS after a a game with 5 or less offensive over the last 3 seasons.  The Vols are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following double-digit loss.  Bet the Vols Friday. 

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -3 

This is my favorite play of any of the Round of 64 games.  This is also the first game on the board Friday, so start your day a winner.  I really think Cincinnati is under-seeded getting a #7 seed.  They went 28-6 this season in what turned out to be a loaded American Athletic Conference. 

Four teams made the NCAA Tournament from the AAC in Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and Temple.  And the Bearcats got their revenge from two regular season losses to Houston with an impressive 69-57 win over the Cougars in the AAC title game. 

There’s probably not a player in the tournament I trust more with the game on the line than Cincinnati’s Jarron Cumberland.  He averages nearly 19 PPG and can get his own shot whenever he wants.  But this is a deep Bearcats team with six players averaging at least 8 PPG. 

One of my favorite things about this game is that the committee basically made up for under-seeding the Bearcats by basically giving them a home game.  This game will be played in Columbus, Ohio, which is just a 90-minute drive from Cincinnati’s campus. 

They’ll be up against an Iowa team that really faded down the stretch, which is become a common theme for them in the Fran McCaffery era.  The Hawkeyes are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only four wins came against Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana & Illinois, which are four of the worst teams in the Big Ten. 

The Hawkeyes needed buzzer beaters to beat both Northwestern and Rutgers, and they needed a late 3-pointer to force overtime against Indiana at home, where they eventually won.  They were blasted by 21 points by Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. 

Cincinnati is a team that plays similar to the way Michigan does.  They are a physical team that slows down the tempo, always looking for the best shot, and they’ll make Iowa play defense for 30 seconds.  The Hawkeyes don’t play much defense.  

 Iowa is better against teams that want to run with them, and Cincinnati does not fit the bill.  The Hawkeyes have been terrible against teams that slow it down and control the tempo.  And that’s how I see this game playing out.  I also don’t expect Iowa fans to travel that well because they have lost faith in this team down the stretch. 

Iowa is 3-14 ATS in road games off a loss over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight eight NCAA Tournament games.  I think Cincinnati is by far the superior team, and with home-court advantage, this is a very short number to have to lay with them.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.