15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back from their loss to the Cavaliers last night.  They let that game get away in the second half.  They have played a brutal schedule already, facing two of the best teams in the East.  They beat the Celtics on the road before losing to the Cavs last night.

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting way too much respect from the books after back-to-back blowout road wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Suns and Pacers.  But now they have to take a big step up in competition here and will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Bucks should be favored by more here.

The Bucks clearly match up well with the Blazers.  They have won four of the last five meetings, including a season sweep last year.  And they've gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Plays on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

I think the Memphis Grizzlies are getting overlooked in the Western Conference this season.  This is always a gritty team that will fight for every possession.  And I think getting rid of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen was the right move to go younger and more athletic, which will allow them to play a little more up tempo when they want to.

The Grizzlies opened with a nice 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, holding them to 38% shooting to prove that their defense is still elite.  And they've now had two days off to get ready for Golden State, which is a huge advantage.

Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning 128-120 in New Orleans last night.  So that gives these teams a common opponent already, and the Grizzlies can clearly hang with the Warriors given their results.

Last year, Memphis actually won its first two meetings with Golden State.  The Grizzlies won 110-89 as 13-point home dogs, and 128-119 as 13.5-point road dogs.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Fresno State +7.5

The betting markets have been slow to catch on to how good the Fresno State Bulldogs are this season.  I think they're still behind the eight ball here as the Bulldogs are catching 7.5 points at San Diego State in a game they will likely win outright tonight.

Jeff Tedford came back to college football in a good situation here as there were 16 returning starters for Fresno State.  And he has made the most out of it.  The Bulldogs are 4-2 this season with their two losses coming against two of the best teams in college football in Alabama and Washington, and they covered the spread in both games.

In fact, the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  They are coming off a 38-0 beat down of New Mexico last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Lobos were coming off a bye week.  I'm not so sure that Fresno State isn't the best team in the Mountain West this season in what has proven to be a wide open conference.

This is an awful spot for the San Diego State Aztecs.  They will be deflated after suffering their first loss of the season last week, a 14-31 upset home loss to Boise State.  The air has been let out of the balloon now as the Aztecs realize they won't be the Group of 5 representative for a New Year's Bowl.  I don't expect them to get back up off the mat in time to put away a game Fresno State team by more than a touchdown this week.

The Bulldogs have really turned the corner since making the change to Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion a few weeks back.  He has come in and lit it up by completing 65.8% of his passes for 966 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 133 yards and 5.3 per carry, adding a nice dual-threat element to the offense that Chason Virgil simply did not have.

And this is actually a great matchup for Fresno State because their strength on defense is stopping the run, and San Diego State is an awful passing team that relies almost exclusively on the running the football.  The Bulldogs are only allowing 111 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that normally average 157 yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider they've had to face Alabama and Washington.

Fresno State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with SDSU.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

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15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +7

I've backed the LSU Tigers with success each of the last two weeks.  I had them as +3.5 dogs in a 17-16 win at Florida, and +7 dogs in a 23-21 home win over Auburn last week.  But now I'm changing course and fading them this week because they are now overvalued here as 7-point road favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels.

After beating Florida and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Tigers.  And they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for those wins.  They easily could have lost both games.  Florida missed an extra point that would have forced overtime, and Auburn blew a 20-0 lead.  I was clearly fortunate to win both of those games backing LSU.

This Ole Miss offense has been mighty impressive the last couple weeks.  They managed 429 total yards and 23 points on a very good Auburn defense on the road.  Then they beat Vanderbilt 57-35 last week while racking up 603 total yards against a decent Commodores defense.

Ole Miss boasts the best quarterback that not many have heard about in Shea Patterson.  He is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,143 yards with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. He has three stud receivers on the outside in A.J. Brown (35 receptions, 678 yards, 6 TD), DaMarkus Lodge (24, 438, 6 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (25, 357, 4 TD).

LSU hasn't seen playmakers this good since a 7-37 road loss at Mississippi State in Week 3.  This will be just the third road game for the Tigers this season.  They are averaging just 12.0 points per game in their two true road games this season.  Their offense remains limited, which is why they cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the past eight meetings overall.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against a road team (LSU) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 71-31 (69.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -11

Tulane is a team I've backed a couple times with success this year.  It's a team I really like due to head coach Willie Fritz, but I think the Green Wave are going to be in over their heads here against one of the better teams in the country in the South Florida Bulls.

South Florida has opened 6-0 this season.  The Bulls were flat in their first two games under Charlie Strong, not quite living up to expectations while failing to cover the spread.  But this team has steadily gotten better through the season and is peaking right now.  The Bulls won 47-23 over Illinois as 16.5-point favorites, beat Temple 43-7 as 17.5-point favorites, won at ECU 61-31 as 21.5-point favorites and shut down Cincinnati 33-3 as 24-point home favorites.  That's four straight covers.

Now the Bulls are only being asked to lay 11 points because they are on the road here.  This is a Bulls team that has scored at least 30 points in 23 straight games, the longest current streak at the FBS level.  The Bulls are averaging 42.8 points this season, and it's their ability to put up points in a hurry that makes this 11-point spread so low.

Strong's calling card has always been defense, and that's been the case in his first year at USF.  The Bulls rank third in the nation in rushing defense (77.8 yards/game), and No. 8 in rushing offense (293 yards/game).  Top-ranked Alabama and No. 3 Georgia are the only other teams that rank in the top 10 in both categories.  USF also ranks first in the nation in interceptions (15) and turnover margin (+13).

Tulane has been held to 21 or fewer points in four of its six games this year.  We saw what happened to the Green Wave when they took a step up in class in Week 3, losing 14-56 at Oklahoma.  They also were terrible last week in a 10-23 loss at Florida International as 12-point favorites.

This is a big matchup problem for the Green Wave.  They primarily run the football, averaging 50 rush attempts per game and 278 yards per game, compared to 15 pass attempts per game and 102 passing yards per game.  Well, as stated before, USF is third in the country against the run.  They give up just 78 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry this season.

Tulane is 6-27 ATS in its last 33 games vs. excellent offensive teams who average 450 or more yards per game.  USF is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 conference games.  Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -7

The UCF Knights have been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, but that only tells half the story.  Not only are they covering, they are covering by massive margins.  They have covered the point spread by a combined 102 points this season.  That's an average cover of 20 points per game.

I still don't believe the oddsmakers have caught up with them this week.  Now they are only being asked to lay a touchdown on the road at Navy.  I think Navy gets a lot of respect because they have been great as an underdog and as a covering team overall.  But this Navy team is more vulnerable than in year's past.

Navy is 5-1 this season, but four of those wins came by 10 points or less, including two by a combined five points.  And they have played an extremely soft schedule against FAU, Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Air Force and Memphis.  I'd say Memphis was the best team they've played, and they lost 27-30 to them last week.

What's great about this game is we already have some common opponents to compare these teams.  UCF won on the road at Cincinnati 51-23 in a game that was cut short by rain.  Navy only beat Cincinnati 42-32 at home.  UCF crushed Memphis 40-13 at home, while Navy lost at Memphis 27-30 on the road.

This is a UCF offense that is humming along, averaging 50.6 points per game. 547 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The Knights will find plenty of success against a Navy defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game, 6.2 yards per play and 8.5 yards per pass.

The reason UCF is probably the best team in the AAC is because it plays defense.  The Knights only allow 16.8 points per game and 5 yards per play.  They are only giving up 110 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  This game will be a mismatch athletically on both sides of the ball as the UCF team speed will be the difference.

Scott Frost has brought his offense in from Oregon and it is hitting on all cylinders right now.  Frost actually played scout-team quarterback for UCF this week, impersonating Navy's Zach Abbey and the triple-option.  This UCF team is having a lot of fun right now and they just have a great vibe to them with Frost.  He's clearly not going to be around much longer with the kind of success he's had here, taking a team that was 0-12 in 2015 to one that is now a contender to get the Group of 5 New Year's bowl game.

"He's running, dropping dimes," linebacker Chequan Burkett said. "You just think in your head, 'Hey man, this guy won a national championship doing this, so it's a wonderful experience to be able to face a quarterback who really did this and happens to be our head coach. He's giving us a great look. If he puts on shoulder pads and full gear, you'd really think he'd want to play us."

For Frost, the decision to run the scout team was an easy one. With both Georgia Tech and Navy on the 2017 schedule -- UCF visits the Midshipmen on Saturday -- Frost and his staff knew they had to start practice against the option months in advance. Most teams do that, just to get their teams acquainted with the offense.

"There is an art to playing option quarterback," he says. "I can't tell you how many reps I have at doing that kind of stuff. Even though I'm slow and old, it's probably still better than somebody that's doing it for the first time."

"He wanted to make sure that when the time came for us to play an option team that it wasn't a surprise," linebacker Shaquem Griffin said. "We didn't understand then, 'Why are we doing this now?' But going through the first day of practice Monday and everybody flying around and fitting the right spots, it showed what we did in spring and summer is paying off. I feel we're a step ahead. It's not like we're learning something new."

They'll be ready for the triple option Saturday.  And with the athletic mismatch on the field you'll witness this weekend, needing UCF to only win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is a gift from oddsmakers.  Take UCF Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are two one-point losses away from being 5-1 this season.  They lost 16-17 at South Carolina as 9.5-point dogs, and 22-23 at UAB as 9.5-point favorites.  Those two losses look better and better by the week.  But because LA Tech is just 3-3, it is undervalued right now.

The Bulldogs will now be coming off their bye week and hungry for a victory following that loss to UAB.  And they have one of the more underrated home-field advantages of the small schools down in Ruston, Louisiana. I look for them to make easy work of the Southern Miss Eagles this week.

This is a Southern Miss team that comes in overvalued due to its 4-2 start.  But the Golden Eagles really only have one good win at UTSA 31-29.  The other three came against Southern, LA Monroe and UTEP.  They lost to the two best teams they played in Kentucky and North Texas, including a 28-43 home loss to the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech is going to want revenge from a 39-24 loss at Southern Miss last year.  But I was on Southern Miss in that game because of the spot.  LA Tech had already clinched a trip to the C-USA title game the previous week, and Southern Miss was playing for a bowl game.  It was an easy choice on the Golden Eagles are 14.5-point home dogs.  But this time around, LA Tech needs the win more and it's a better spot for them because they are coming off a bye.

Louisiana Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games off two or more consecutive unders.  The Bulldogs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a game in which they did not force a turnover.  The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -3.5

The USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish are two popular teams in terms of the betting public.  They love to bet on both of them.  But the difference between these teams this season is that Notre Dame is for real, while USC is a complete fraud.

The Fighting Irish came into the season with limited outside expectations for the first time in a long time after going just 4-8 last season.  And now I still think they are flying under the radar despite their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start.  This team is the real deal.

The only loss came 19-20 at home to Georgia, a Georgia team that is easily one of the best four teams in college football and will likely make the four-team playoff.  The other five games the Fighting Irish have played have all resulted in blowouts by 20 or more points in their favor.  That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, a win that looks better and better as the season goes along.

Now the Fighting Irish have had two full weeks to get ready for USC after having their bye last week.  That's a huge advantage and one that is worth a lot more points to the spread than this small 3.5-point line.  Especially when you consider the Fighting Irish now get starting QB Brandon Wimbush back from a one-game absence due to injury.  They didn't need him to beat UNC 33-10 on the road two weeks ago, but they need him here against USC.

USC came into the season as a national title contender.  The Trojans have been anything but.  Despite their 6-1 record, they are just 1-6 ATS.  They lost at Washington State, needed overtime to beat Texas, and needed to stop a 2-point conversion in the final seconds last week to beat Utah 28-27 at home.

This tough schedule is starting to catch up to the Trojans.  They don't get a bye week this season, which is a huge disadvantage, especially after a tough physical game with Utah last week.  And they have a laundry list of injuries, especially up front along the offensive line.  Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and turnovers have been a big problem.  In fact, the Trojans have committed two or more turnovers in all seven games this season, and 16 turnovers overall.  That is a trend, not bad luck.

And Notre Dame has been good at forcing turnovers, getting two or more takeaways in five of six games this year and 14 takeaways overall.  They have only turned the ball over seven times.  This game is likely to be decided with turnovers, and the big edge goes to the Fighting Irish there.

What the Fighting Irish are doing in the running game is remarkable this season.  They are averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  Wimbush has rushed for 402 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.9 per carry.  And Josh Adams has been unstoppable behind a dominant offensive line, rushing for 776 yards and five scores while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per carry.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Fighting Irish want revenge from a 27-45 road loss at USC last season.  USC is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games off two straight ATS losses where they won straight up as a favorite.  The Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.