Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Minnesota Twins -118 

The Minnesota Twins need a big run coming out of the All-Star Break to get back in the AL Central race.  They are in 2nd place but well behind the Cleveland Indians.  Look for them to make a run for it starting with this series against the lowly Kansas City Royals (27-68), who will find it hard to be motivated the entire second half. 

Kyle Gibson is having a career season for the Twins.  He is 4-6 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 19 starts with 114 K’s in 115 2/3 innings.  Gibson is 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in nine road starts.  He is also 6-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Royals, including 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three, allowing just 2 earned runs in 20 innings. 

Danny Duffy is having a season he’d like to forget.  He has certainly regressed in 2018.  The left-hander is 5-8 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in seven home starts. 

The Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall.  Minnesota is 20-6 in Gibson’s last 26 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Royals are 1-7 in Duffy’s last eight home starts.  Kansas City is 14-37 in its last 51 home games.  Bet the Twins Friday.

Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 10 months! He is riding a 533-418 Run L316 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $78,570! That includes a 78-62 MLB Run over his last 140 releases!

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20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+105) 

The Seattle Mariners come out of the All-Star Break highly motivated for a victory.  They lost four straight on the road heading into the break to let the Astros distance themselves from them a bit in the AL West race.  Now they get to host the lowly White Sox to get back on track in this series, and I expect them to win Game 1 by two runs or more. 

Wade LeBlanc has been great for the Mariners this season.  He is 5-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 14 starts, including a perfect 5-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in eight home starts.  LeBlanc has posted a 3.86 ERA in one career starts against Chicago. 

James Shields is 4-9 with a 4.38 ERA in 20 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 6.02 ERA in seven road starts.  Shields has been awful in his last three starts against the Mariners, going 0-3 with an 11.04 ERA while allowing 18 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. 

LeBlanc is 9-0 in home games vs. AL teams with an on base percentage of .330 or worse over the last three seasons.  His teams are winning by 2.0 runs per game on average in this spot.  LeBlanc is 10-0 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons, and his teams are winning by 2.2 runs per game.  The Mariners are 8-0 in LeBlanc’s eight home starts this season and winning by 2.2 runs per game.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Friday.